“Thatha yonke imali yethu, imisebenzi yethu emikhulu, izimayini kanye nama-oven e-coke, kodwa ushiye inhlangano yethu, futhi eminyakeni emine ngizokwakha kabusha.” – Andrew Carnegie
I-Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) yayiyinkampani yokumba insimbi eyayihlinzeka ngama-pellets ensimbi kubakhiqizi bensimbi. Yacishe yawa ngo-2014 lapho isikhulu esiphezulu uLourenco Goncalves eqokwa njengomlindi wokuphila.
Eminyakeni eyisikhombisa kamuva, iCleveland-Cliffs iyinkampani ehluke ngokuphelele, ehlanganiswe ngqo embonini yokucubungula insimbi futhi egcwele amandla. Ikota yokuqala ka-2021 yikota yokuqala ngemva kokuhlanganiswa ngokuqondile. Njenganoma yimuphi umhlaziyi onentshisekelo, ngilangazelela imibiko yenzuzo yekota kanye nokubuka kokuqala imiphumela yezezimali yokuguquka okumangalisayo, ngicabangela izinkinga eziningana ezifana nokuthi
Okwenzekile eCleveland Cliffs eminyakeni eyisikhombisa edlule kungenzeka ukuthi kuzobhalwa emlandweni njengesibonelo esivelele soguquko oluzofundiswa emakilasini ezikole zebhizinisi zaseMelika.
UGonçalves wathatha izintambo ngo-Agasti 2014 “inkampani eyayilwela ukusinda ngephothifoliyo engahlelekile egcwele izimpahla ezingasebenzi kahle ezakhiwe ngokwesu elingalungile kakhulu” (bheka lapha). Wahola izinyathelo eziningana zamasu enkampani, eqala ngokuchuma kwezezimali, kwalandela izinto zensimbi (okungukuthi insimbi elahliwe) nokungena ebhizinisini lensimbi:
Ngemva kokuguqulwa okuphumelelayo, iCleveland-Cliffs eneminyaka engu-174 ubudala isibe ngumdlali ohlukile ohlanganiswe ngokuqondile, osebenza kusukela ekumbeni (ukumba insimbi kanye nokufaka i-pelletizing) kuya ekucwengisiseni (ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi) (Isithombe 1).
Ezinsukwini zokuqala zale mboni, uCarnegie waguqula ibhizinisi lakhe elibizwa ngegama elilodwa laba ngumenzi wensimbi ovelele waseMelika kwaze kwaba yilapho elithengisela i-US Steel (X) ngo-1902. Njengoba izindleko eziphansi ziyinto ebalulekile kubahlanganyeli embonini abajikelezayo, uCarnegie usethathe amasu amabili ayinhloko okufeza izindleko eziphansi zokukhiqiza:
Kodwa-ke, indawo ephakeme kakhulu, ukuhlanganiswa okuqondile kanye nokwandiswa kwamandla kungaphindaphindwa ngabancintisana nabo. Ukuze inkampani igcine incintisana, uCarnegie wayehlala ethula izinto ezintsha zobuchwepheshe, ehlala etshala kabusha inzuzo emafektri, futhi evame ukushintsha imishini esiphelelwe yisikhathi kancane.
Lokhu kufakwa kwemali kwenza kube lula kokubili ukwehlisa izindleko zabasebenzi nokuthembela kubasebenzi abanamakhono amancane. Wabeka ngokusemthethweni lokho okwaziwa ngokuthi inqubo "ye-hard drive" yokuthuthuka okuqhubekayo ukuze kuzuzwe izinzuzo zokukhiqiza ezizokhulisa umkhiqizo ngenkathi kunciphisa intengo yensimbi (bheka lapha).
Ukuhlanganiswa okuqondile okulandelwa uGonsalves kuthathwe emdlalweni ka-Andrew Carnegie, yize iCleveland Cliff iyindaba yokuhlanganiswa kwangaphambili (okungukuthi ukwengeza ibhizinisi elingaphansi kwebhizinisi elingaphezulu kwebhizinisi) kunokuba kube yindaba yokuhlanganiswa okuphambene okuchazwe ngenhla.
Ngokuthengwa kwe-AK Steel kanye ne-ArcelorMittal USA ngo-2020, iCleveland-Cliffs ingeza uhla oluphelele lwemikhiqizo ebhizinisini layo elikhona le-iron ore kanye ne-pelletizing, okuhlanganisa i-HBI; imikhiqizo eyisicaba ngensimbi yekhabhoni, insimbi engagqwali, ugesi, insimbi ephakathi nendawo kanye nesindayo. imikhiqizo ende, insimbi yekhabhoni kanye namapayipi ensimbi engagqwali, ukwakheka nokufakelwa okushisayo nokubandayo. Isizimise njengomholi emakethe yezimoto ethandwa kakhulu, lapho ibusa khona inani kanye nobubanzi bemikhiqizo yensimbi engagqwali.
Kusukela maphakathi no-2020, imboni yensimbi ingene endaweni yamanani enhle kakhulu. Amanani e-hot rolled coil yasekhaya (noma i-HRC) e-US Midwest aphindeke kathathu kusukela ngo-Agasti 2020, afinyelela irekhodi eliphezulu ngaphezu kuka-$1,350/t kusukela maphakathi no-Ephreli 2020 (Isithombe 2).
Isithombe 2. Amanani aqondile e-62% ye-iron ore (kwesokudla) kanye namanani e-HRC asekhaya e-US Midwest (kwesobunxele) lapho i-CEO yeCleveland-Cliffs uLourenko Gonçalves ethatha izintambo, njengoba kushintshiwe futhi kutholakala umthombo.
I-Cliffs izozuza ngamanani aphezulu ensimbi. Ukuthengwa kwe-ArcelorMittal USA kuvumela inkampani ukuthi ihlale inolwazi ngamanani aphansi athengiswayo ngenkathi izinkontileka zezimoto zamanani aphansi zonyaka, ikakhulukazi ezivela ku-AK Steel, zingaxoxwa ngazo phezulu ngo-2022 (unyaka owodwa ngaphansi kwamanani aphansi).
I-Cleveland-Cliffs iqinisekisile kaningi ukuthi izolandela "ifilosofi yenani elingaphezu kwevolumu" futhi ngeke ikhulise isabelo semakethe ukuze kwandiswe ukusetshenziswa kwamandla, ngaphandle kwemboni yezimoto, okusiza ngokwengxenye ekugcineni isimo samanje samanani. Kodwa-ke, ukuthi ontanga abanomqondo ojwayelekile ojwayelekile bazosabela kanjani eziqondisweni zikaGoncalves kuyinto engabazekayo.
Amanani ensimbi kanye nezinto zokusetshenziswa nawo ayemahle. Ngo-Agasti 2014, lapho uGonçalves eba yi-CEO yeCleveland-Cliffs, i-62% yensimbi ye-Fe yayibiza cishe u-$96/ton, kanti maphakathi no-Ephreli 2021, i-62% yensimbi ye-Fe yayibiza cishe u-$173/ton (Isithombe 1). Uma nje amanani ensimbi ehlala eqinile, iCleveland Cliffs izobhekana nokwenyuka okukhulu kwentengo yama-pellets ensimbi ewathengisela abenzi bensimbi beqembu lesithathu ngenkathi ithola izindleko eziphansi zokuthenga ama-pellets ensimbi kuyo.
Ngokuphathelene nezinto zokusetshenziswa ezilahliwe zezitofu zikagesi ze-arc (okungukuthi izitofu zikagesi ze-arc), umfutho wentengo cishe uzoqhubeka iminyaka emihlanu ezayo noma ngaphezulu ngenxa yesidingo esikhulu eShayina. IShayina izokwandisa kabili amandla ezitofu zayo zikagesi ze-arc eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo kusukela ezingeni layo lamanje lamathani ayi-100 metric, okunyusa amanani ensimbi elahliwe - izindaba ezimbi ezimbonini zensimbi zikagesi zase-US. Lokhu kwenza isinqumo seCleveland-Cliffs sokwakha isitshalo se-HBI eToledo, e-Ohio sibe isinyathelo esihlakaniphile kakhulu. Ukunikezwa kwensimbi okwanele kulindeleke ukuthi kusize ekukhuliseni inzuzo yeCleveland-Cliffs eminyakeni ezayo.
I-Cleveland-Cliffs ilindele ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwayo kwangaphandle kwama-pellets ensimbi kube ngamathani amade ayizigidi ezingu-3-4 ngonyaka ngemuva kokuthola izimpahla zangaphakathi ezivela ezitshalweni zayo zokushisa kanye nezitshalo zokunciphisa ngqo. Ngilindele ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwama-pellet kuhlale kuleli zinga ngokuhambisana nesimiso senani ngaphezu kwevolumu.
Ukuthengiswa kwe-HBI esitshalweni saseToledo kwaqala ngoMashi 2021 futhi kuzoqhubeka nokukhula kwikota yesibili ka-2021, okwengeza umfudlana omusha wemali engenayo yeCleveland-Cliffs.
Abaphathi beCleveland-Cliffs babehlose i-EBITDA elungisiwe engu-$500 million kwikota yokuqala, $1.2 billion kwikota yesibili kanye $3.5 billion ngo-2021, okungaphezu kakhulu kwesivumelwano sabahlaziyi. Lezi zinhloso zimelela ukwanda okukhulu kusuka ku-$286 million ebhalwe kwikota yesine ka-2020 (Isithombe 3).
Isibalo 3. Imali engenayo yekota yeCleveland-Cliffs kanye ne-EBITDA elungisiwe, yangempela kanye nebikezelo. Umthombo: Laurentian Research, Natural Resources Center, ngokusekelwe kudatha yezezimali eshicilelwe yiCleveland-Cliffs.
Isibikezelo sihlanganisa ukusebenzisana okungu-$150M okuzofezwa ngo-2021 njengengxenye yokusebenzisana okungu-$310M okuphelele okuvela ekuthuthukisweni kwempahla, umnotho wesilinganiso kanye nokwenza ngcono okungaphezulu.
I-Cleveland-Cliffs ngeke kudingeke ikhokhe intela ngemali kuze kube yilapho impahla yentela ehlehlisiwe engu-$492 million isiphelile. Abaphathi abalindeli ukuthi kusetshenziswe imali enkulu noma kuthengwe. Ngilindele ukuthi inkampani ikhiqize imali engenayo yamahhala ngo-2021. Abaphathi bahlose ukusebenzisa imali engenayo yamahhala ukunciphisa isikweletu okungenani ngo-$1 billion.
Ucingo lwengqungquthela yenzuzo yekota yokuqala ka-2021 luhlelelwe umhlaka-22 Ephreli 2021 ngo-10:00 AM ET (chofoza lapha). Ngesikhathi sengxoxo, abatshalizimali kufanele banake okulandelayo:
Abenzi bensimbi base-US babhekene nokuncintisana okunzima okuvela kubakhiqizi bakwamanye amazwe abangase bathole uxhaso lukahulumeni noma balondoloze izinga lokushintshana eliphansi ngokwenziwa uma kuqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika kanye/noma izindleko zabasebenzi, izinto zokusetshenziswa, amandla kanye nezemvelo eziphansi. Uhulumeni wase-US, ikakhulukazi uhulumeni kaTrump, wethule uphenyo lokuhweba oluqondiwe futhi wabeka intela yeSigaba 232 ekungenisweni kwensimbi eyisicaba. Uma intela yeSigaba 232 incishisiwe noma iqedwa, ukungeniswa kwensimbi yangaphandle kuzophinde kwehlise amanani ensimbi yasekhaya futhi kulimaze ukubuyiselwa kwezimali okuthembisayo kweCleveland Cliffs. UMongameli uBiden akakenzi izinguquko ezibalulekile enqubweni yokuhweba yohulumeni wangaphambilini, kodwa abatshalizimali kufanele baqaphele lokhu kungaqiniseki okuvamile.
Ukuthengwa kwe-AK Steel kanye ne-ArcelorMittal USA kwaletha izinzuzo ezinkulu kuCleveland-Cliffs. Kodwa-ke, ukuhlanganiswa okuqondile okubangelwa yilokhu nakho kunezingozi. Okokuqala, iCleveland-Cliffs ngeke ithintwe nje kuphela umjikelezo wokumbiwa kwensimbi, kodwa futhi nokuguquguquka kwemakethe embonini yezimoto, okungaholela ekuqinisweni komjikelezo kokuphathwa kwenkampani. Okwesibili, ukuthengwa kwempahla kugcizelele ukubaluleka kwe-R&D. Okwesibili, ukuthengwa kwempahla kugcizelele ukubaluleka kwe-R&D.Okwesibili, lokhu kutholwa kwaqokomisa ukubaluleka kocwaningo nentuthuko. Okwesibili, ukuthengwa kwempahla kugqamisa ukubaluleka kwe-R&D.Imikhiqizo yesizukulwane sesithathu ye-NEXMET 1000 kanye ne-NEXMET 1200 AHSS, elula, eqinile futhi ebumbekayo, okwamanje ithuthukiswa kumakhasimende ezimoto, ngesivinini esingaqinisekile sokwethulwa emakethe.
Abaphathi beCleveland-Cliffs bathi bazobeka phambili ukudalwa kwenani (ngokwenzuzo etshaliwe noma i-ROIC) kunokwandiswa kwevolumu (bheka lapha). Kusazobonakala ukuthi abaphathi bangayiqalisa yini ngempumelelo le ndlela yokuphathwa kokunikezwa kwempahla embonini eyaziwayo ngokujikeleza.
Enkampanini eneminyaka engu-174 ubudala enabaningi asebethathe umhlalaphansi ezinhlelweni zayo zempesheni kanye nezokwelapha, iCleveland-Cliffs ibhekene nezindleko zokusebenza eziphezulu kakhulu kunabanye ontanga bayo. Ubudlelwano benyunyana yabasebenzi buyinkinga enkulu. Ngo-Ephreli 12, 2021, iCleveland-Cliffs yangena esivumelwaneni sesikhashana sezinyanga ezingu-53 ne-United Steelworkers senkontileka entsha yabasebenzi esitshalweni saseMansfield, kusalindelwe imvume evela kumalungu enyunyana yasendaweni.
Uma sibheka isiqondiso se-Adjusted EBITDA esingu-$3.5 billion, iCleveland-Cliffs ihweba ngesilinganiso se-EV/EBITDA esingaphambili esingu-4.55x. Njengoba iCleveland-Cliffs iyibhizinisi elihluke kakhulu ngemva kokuthenga i-AK Steel kanye ne-ArcelorMittal USA, i-EV/EBITDA yayo yomlando ephakathi kuka-7.03x ingase ingasho lutho.
Ontanga bemboni i-US Steel inesilinganiso esimaphakathi se-EV/EBITDA esingu-6.60x, i-Nucor 9.47x, i-Steel Dynamics (STLD) 8.67x kanye ne-ArcelorMittal 7.40x. Ngisho noma amasheya e-Cleveland-Cliffs enyuke cishe ngo-500% kusukela ehla ngoMashi 2020 (Isithombe 4), i-Cleveland-Cliffs isabonakala ingabalulekile kangako uma iqhathaniswa nesilinganiso semakethe.
Ngesikhathi senhlekelele ye-Covid-19, iCleveland-Cliffs imise isabelo sayo sekota esingu-$0.06 ngesabelo ngo-Ephreli 2020 futhi ayikakaqhubeki nokukhokha isabelo.
Ngaphansi kobuholi be-CEO uLourenko Goncalves, iCleveland-Cliffs ishintshe kakhulu.
Ngombono wami, iCleveland-Cliffs iseduze nokukhula kwemali engenayo kanye nokugeleza kwemali kwamahhala, engicabanga ukuthi sizokubona okokuqala embikweni wethu olandelayo wemali engenayo yekota.
I-Cleveland-Cliffs ngumdlalo wokutshalwa kwezimali ojikelezayo. Njengoba intengo yakhe iphansi, umbono wenzuzo kanye nesimo sentengo yezimpahla esihle, kanye nezici ezinkulu ezibangela ukwehla kwentengo ngemuva kwezinhlelo zengqalasizinda zikaBiden, ngicabanga ukuthi kusengcono kubatshalizimali besikhathi eside ukuthatha izikhundla. Kungenzeka njalo ukuthenga isaphulelo bese wengeza ezikhundleni ezikhona uma isitatimende semali engenayo se-Q1 sika-2021 sinomusho othi “thenga amahemuhemu, thengisa izindaba.”
I-Cleveland-Cliffs ingenye nje yemibono eminingi i-Laurentian Research eyitholile endaweni yemithombo yemvelo esafufusa futhi yathengiswa kumalungu e-Natural Resources Hub, isevisi yemakethe ehlala iletha imbuyiselo ephezulu enengozi ephansi.
Njengochwepheshe wezinsiza zemvelo oneminyaka eminingi yesipiliyoni sokutshala imali esiphumelelayo, ngenza ucwaningo olujulile ukuze ngilethe imibono enenzuzo ephezulu nenengozi ephansi kumalungu e-Natural Resources Center (TNRH). Ngigxila ekuboneni inani elijulile lekhwalithi ephezulu emkhakheni wezinsiza zemvelo kanye namabhizinisi emisele engabalulekile, indlela yokutshala imali eye yabonakala isebenza kahle eminyakeni edlule.
Amanye amasampula afingqiwe omsebenzi wami athunyelwe lapha, futhi isihloko esingafingqiwe esingu-4x sithunyelwe ngokushesha ku-TNRH, isevisi yemakethe ethandwayo ye-Alpha, lapho ungathola khona futhi:
Bhalisa lapha namuhla futhi uzuze ocwaningweni oluthuthukisiwe lweLaurentian Research kanye neplatifomu ye-TNRH namuhla!
Ukudalulwa: Ngaphandle kwami, i-TNRH inenhlanhla yokuba nabanye abanikeli abaningana abathumela futhi babelane ngemibono yabo ngomphakathi wethu ochumayo. Laba babhali bahlanganisa i-Silver Coast Research nabanye. Ngingathanda ukugcizelela ukuthi izihloko ezinikezwe yilaba babhali ziwumkhiqizo wocwaningo lwabo oluzimele kanye nokuhlaziywa.
Ukudalulwa: Mina/thina siyi-CLF yesikhathi eside. Ngibhale lesi sihloko mina ngokwami ​​futhi siveza umbono wami. Angikaze ngithole noma yisiphi isinxephezelo (ngaphandle kwe-Seeking Alpha). Anginabo ubudlelwano bebhizinisi nanoma yiziphi izinkampani ezibalwe kulesi sihloko.