"Tangohia ā mātou moni katoa, ā mātou mahi nunui, maina me ō mātou oumu kōka, engari whakarerea tā mātou whakahaere, ā, i roto i ngā tau e whā ka hanga anō ahau i ahau anō." - Andrew Carnegie
I mua ko Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) he kamupene keri rino e tuku ana i ngā pire rino ki ngā kaihanga rino. I tata pōkeretia i te tau 2014 i te wā i whakatūria ai te tumuaki whakahaere a Lourenco Goncalves hei kaitiaki ora.
E whitu tau i muri mai, he kamupene tino rerekē a Cleveland-Cliffs, kua whakauruhia poutū ki roto i te umanga tukatuka maitai, ā, ki tonu i te hihiri. Ko te hauwhā tuatahi o te tau 2021 te hauwhā tuatahi i muri i te whakaurunga poutū. Pērā i tētahi kaitātari hiahia, e tumanako ana ahau ki ngā pūrongo whiwhinga ā-hauwhā me te tirohanga tuatahi ki ngā hua pūtea o te huringa whakamiharo, me te whakaaro ki ētahi take pēnei i te
Ko te mea i tupu i ngā Cleveland Cliffs i ngā tau e whitu kua pahure ake nei, tera pea ka tuhia ki roto i te hītori hei tauira matarohia o te panonitanga hei whakaakona i roto i ngā akomanga kura pakihi o Amerika.
I te marama o Ākuhata 2014, ka riro i a Gonçalves te mana whakahaere "he kamupene e raru ana ki te ora me te putea koretake e ki ana i ngā rawa ngoikore i hangaia i runga i te rautaki tino hē" (tirohia ki konei). I arahina e ia ētahi mahi rautaki mō te kamupene, mai i te pikinga pūtea, ā, i muri mai ko ngā rauemi whakarewa (arā, ko te konganuku para) me te urunga ki te pakihi maitai:
Whai muri i te panonitanga angitu, kua noho a Cleveland-Cliffs, 174 tau te pakeke, hei kaitākaro motuhake kua whakauruhia ki roto i ngā pūnaha poutū, e mahi ana mai i te keri (keri rino me te hanga pellet) ki te whakamahine (hanga maitai) (Pikitia 1).
I ngā rā tōmua o te umanga, i hurihia e Carnegie tana umanga i tapaina koia nei te ingoa, hei kaihanga rino matua o Amerika tae noa ki tana hokonga atu ki a US Steel (X) i te tau 1902. Nā te mea ko te utu iti te kaupapa matua o ngā kaiuru o te umanga hurihuri, e rua ngā rautaki matua kua whakamahia e Carnegie hei whakatutuki i te utu iti o te whakaputanga:
Heoi, ka taea e ngā kaiwhakataetae te whai i te taunga whenua pai rawa atu, te whakaurunga poutū, tae atu ki te whakawhānui i te kaha. Hei pupuri i te whakataetae o te kamupene, i whakauru tonu a Carnegie i ngā auahatanga hangarau hou, i whakangao tonu i ngā hua ki ngā wheketere, ā, i whakakapi pinepine i ngā taputapu kua tawhito.
Mā tēnei whakapaipai ka taea te whakaiti i ngā utu mahi, me te whakawhirinaki hoki ki ngā kaimahi iti ake te pūkenga. I whakatūria e ia te mea i mōhiotia ko te tukanga "puku mārō" mō te whakapai tonu kia eke ki ngā hua hua ka piki ake te whakaputanga me te whakaheke i te utu o te maitai (tirohia ki konei).
Ko te whakaurunga poutū i whaihia e Gonsalves i tangohia mai i tētahi whakaari nā Andrew Carnegie, ahakoa ko te Cleveland Cliff he take whakauru whakamua (arā, te tāpiri i tētahi pakihi o raro ki tētahi pakihi o runga) kaua ki te take whakauru whakamuri kua whakaahuatia i runga ake nei.
I te hokonga mai o AK Steel me ArcelorMittal USA i te tau 2020, kei te tāpirihia e Cleveland-Cliffs te whānuitanga katoa o ngā hua ki tana pakihi rino me te whakapūtanga pellet, tae atu ki te HBI; ngā hua papatahi i roto i te maitai waro, te maitai kore waikura, te maitai hiko, te maitai waenga me te maitai taumaha. ngā hua roa, ngā paipa maitai waro me te maitai kore waikura, te hanga wera me te makariri me ngā mate. Kua whakatūria e ia hei kaiārahi i roto i te mākete motuka tino rongonui, kei reira te mana whakahaere o te rahinga me te whānuitanga o ngā hua maitai papatahi.
Mai i waenganui o te tau 2020, kua uru te umanga maitai ki tētahi taiao utu tino pai. Kua toru ngā utu o te koiri hurihuri wera ā-rohe (HRC rānei) i te US Midwest mai i Ākuhata 2020, ā, kua eke ki tētahi taumata teitei ake i te $1,350/t i waenganui o Paenga-whāwhā 2020 (Pikitia 2).
Pikitia 2. Ngā utu tūāpapa mō te rino 62% (matau) me ngā utu HRC ā-rohe i te US Midwest (maui) i te wā i riro ai te mana whakahaere i a Lourenko Gonçalves, te Tumu Whakarae o Cleveland-Cliffs, e ai ki ngā whakatikatika me te pūtake.
Ka whai hua a Cliffs i ngā utu rino teitei. Mā te hokonga mai o ArcelorMittal USA ka taea e te kamupene te noho ki runga i ngā utu wāhi wera, ā, ka taea hoki te whiriwhiri i ngā kirimana waka utu pumau ā-tau, mai i a AK Steel te nuinga, kia piki ake i te tau 2022 (kotahi tau i raro i ngā utu wāhi).
Kua maha ngā wā i whakaū ai a Cleveland-Cliffs ka whai rātou i te "whakaaro o te uara i runga i te rahinga" ā, e kore e whakanui i te wāhi mākete hei whakanui ake i te whakamahinga o te kaha, engari ko te umanga motuka, e āwhina ana ki te pupuri i te taiao utu o nāianei. Heoi, kei te pātaihia te āhua o te urupare a ngā hoa whai whakaaro hurihanga tawhito ki ngā tohu a Goncalves.
He pai hoki ngā utu mō te rino me ngā rauemi mata. I te marama o Ākuhata 2014, i te wā i noho ai a Gonçalves hei Tumu Whakarae o Cleveland-Cliffs, ko te uara o te 62% Fe rino he $96/tana, ā, i waenganui o Paenga-whāwhā 2021, ko te uara o te 62% Fe rino he $173/tana (Pikitia 1). kotahi). I te mea ka mau tonu ngā utu o te rino, ka pāngia a Cleveland Cliffs e te pikinga nui o te utu o ngā pire rino e hokona ana e ia ki ngā kaihanga rino tuatoru, me te whiwhi utu iti mō te hoko pire rino mai i a ia anō.
Mō ngā rauemi mata para mō ngā oumu hiko (arā, ngā oumu hiko), tera pea ka haere tonu te pikinga o te utu mō ngā tau e rima e whai ake nei nā te kaha o te tono i Haina. Ka whakanekehia e Haina te kaha o āna oumu hiko i roto i ngā tau e rima e whai ake nei mai i tōna taumata o nāianei o te 100 tāne mita, ka piki ake ngā utu para konganuku – he rongo kino tēnei mō ngā mira maitai hiko o Amerika. Nā tēnei ka waiho te whakatau a Cleveland-Cliffs ki te hanga i tētahi tipu HBI i Toledo, Ohio hei nekehanga rautaki tino mohio. Ko te tuku motuhake o te konganuku e tika ana ka āwhina i te whakanui ake i ngā hua o Cleveland-Cliffs i ngā tau e haere ake nei.
E matapaetia ana e Cleveland-Cliffs ka eke āna hokonga o waho o ngā pire rino ki te 3-4 miriona tana roa ia tau i muri i te whiwhi i ngā taonga o roto mai i tana ake oumu pupuhi me ngā tipu whakaiti tika. E matapaetia ana ka noho tonu ngā hoko pire ki tēnei taumata e rite ana ki te mātāpono uara ki runga ake i te rahinga.
I tīmata ngā hoko HBI i te wheketere i Toledo i te marama o Poutū-te-rangi 2021, ā, ka piki tonu i te hauwhā tuarua o te tau 2021, ka tāpirihia he awa moni hou mō Cleveland-Cliffs.
I te hauwhā tuatahi, i whai te whakahaere o Cleveland-Cliffs i te EBITDA kua whakatikatikaina kia $500 miriona, $1.2 piriona i te hauwhā tuarua, me te $3.5 piriona i te tau 2021, he nui ake i te whakaae a ngā kaitātari. He pikinga nui ēnei whainga mai i te $286 miriona i tuhia i te hauwhā tuawhā o te tau 2020 (Pikitia 3).
Pikitia 3. Ngā moni whiwhi ā-hauwhā o Cleveland-Cliffs me te EBITDA kua whakatikatikaina, te mea tuturu me te mea matapae. Puna: Laurentian Research, Natural Resources Center, i runga i ngā raraunga pūtea i whakaputaina e Cleveland-Cliffs.
Kei roto i te matapae he mahi tahi $150M ka tutuki i te tau 2021 hei wāhanga o te katoa o te mahi tahi $310M mai i te arotautanga rawa, ngā ōhanga tauine me te arotautanga o ngā utu whakahaere.
Kāore a Cleveland-Cliffs e utu tāke moni tae noa ki te paunga o te $492 miriona o ngā rawa tāke whakaroa kupenga. Kāore te whakahaere e tumanako ana kia nui ngā whakapaunga whakapaipai, ngā hoko rānei. Ki taku whakaaro ka whakaputa te kamupene i te moni kore utu nui i te tau 2021. Kei te whakaaro te whakahaere ki te whakamahi i te moni kore utu hei whakaiti i te nama mā te $1 piriona pea.
Kua whakaritea te hui waea mō ngā whiwhinga moni o te hauwhā tuatahi o te tau 2021 mō te 22 o Paenga-whāwhā, 2021 i te 10:00 AM ET (pāwhiri ki konei). I te wā o te hui waea, me aro ngā kaipupuri moni ki ēnei mea e whai ake nei:
He whakataetae nui kei waenganui i ngā kaihanga rino o Amerika me ngā kaihanga o tāwāhi, e whiwhi ana pea i ngā tautoko a te kāwanatanga, e pupuri ana rānei i tētahi utu whakawhiti iti hangai ki te tāra o Amerika, me/ranei te whakaiti i ngā utu mahi, rauemi mata, pūngao me te taiao. I whakarewahia e te kāwanatanga o Amerika, inā koa te whakahaerenga a Trump, ngā rangahau hokohoko kua arotahihia, ā, i whakatakotohia ngā taripa Wāhanga 232 mō ngā kawemai rino papatahi. Mena ka whakaitihia, ka whakakorea rānei ngā taripa Wāhanga 232, ka heke anō ngā utu rino o tāwāhi mai i ngā kawemai rino o tāwāhi, ā, ka pā kino ki te whakaoranga pūtea o Cleveland Cliffs. Kāore anō a Perehitini Biden kia hanga i ngā huringa nui ki te kaupapa here hokohoko o te whakahaerenga o mua, engari me mōhio ngā kaipupuri moni ki tēnei āwangawanga whānui.
He nui ngā painga i puta mai i te hokonga o AK Steel me ArcelorMittal USA ki a Cleveland-Cliffs. Heoi, he mōrearea anō hoki kei roto i te whakaurunga poutū. Tuatahi, ehara i te mea ko te huringa keri rino anake ka pāngia a Cleveland-Cliffs, engari ko te huringa o te mākete i roto i te umanga motuka, ka arahi pea tēnei ki te whakapakari huringa o te whakahaere o te kamupene. Tuarua, kua whakanuia e ngā hoko te hiranga o te R&D. Tuarua, kua whakanuia e ngā hoko te hiranga o te R&D.Tuarua, i whakaatuhia e ēnei hoko te hiranga o te rangahau me te whanaketanga. Tuarua, e whakaatu ana ngā hoko i te hiranga o te R&D.Kei te whakawhanakehia ngā hua NEXMET 1000 me NEXMET 1200 AHSS o te whakatupuranga tuatoru, he māmā, he kaha, he ka taea te hanga, mā ngā kaihoko motuka, me te kore e tino mārama te tere o te whakaurunga ki te mākete.
E ai ki ngā kaiwhakahaere o Cleveland-Cliffs ka whakatairangahia e rātou te waihanga uara (e pā ana ki te hokinga mai o te whakapaipai kua whakangaohia, te ROIC rānei) i te whakawhānui i te rahinga (tirohia ki konei). Kāore anō kia kitea mēnā ka taea e ngā kaiwhakahaere te whakatinana i tēnei huarahi whakahaere tuku pakari i roto i tētahi umanga rongonui e huri haere ana.
Mō tētahi kamupene 174-tau te pakeke me te nui ake o ngā tāngata kua reti i roto i āna mahere penihana me te hauora, he nui ake ngā utu whakahaere katoa a Cleveland-Cliffs i ētahi o ōna hoa. Ko ngā whanaungatanga uniana hokohoko tētahi atu take nui. I te 12 o Paenga-whāwhā, 2021, i uru a Cleveland-Cliffs ki tētahi whakaaetanga wā poto 53-marama me United Steelworkers mō tētahi kirimana mahi hou i te wheketere o Mansfield, i te tatari kia whakaaetia e ngā mema uniana ā-rohe.
Ki te titiro ki te aratohu $3.5 piriona Adjusted EBITDA, ka hokohoko a Cleveland-Cliffs i te ōwehenga EV/EBITDA whakamua o te 4.55x. Nā te mea he tino rerekē te pakihi a Cleveland-Cliffs i muri i te hokonga mai i a AK Steel me ArcelorMittal USA, kāore pea he tikanga o tōna EV/EBITDA tawhito o te 7.03x i ēnei rā.
Ko ngā hea o ngā kamupene rite ki te umanga, ko US Steel, ko te EV/EBITDA toharite o te 6.60x, ko Nucor 9.47x, ko Steel Dynamics (STLD) 8.67x me ArcelorMittal 7.40x. Ahakoa kua piki ake ngā hea o Cleveland-Cliffs mā te 500% mai i tōna hinganga i te marama o Poutū-te-rangi 2020 (Pikitia 4), kei te āhua iti tonu te uara o Cleveland-Cliffs ki te whakatauritea ki te toharite o te umanga.
I te wā o te mate urutā Covid-19, i whakamutua e Cleveland-Cliffs tana wehewehenga hauwhā $0.06 mō ia hea i te marama o Āperira 2020, ā, kāore anō kia tīmata anō te utu wehewehenga.
I raro i te kaiārahi o te Tumu Whakarae, a Lourenko Goncalves, kua tino rerekē a Cleveland-Cliffs.
Ki taku whakaaro, kei te tata a Cleveland-Cliffs ki te pikinga ake o ngā whiwhinga moni me te rere o te moni kore utu, ā, ki taku whakaaro ka kite tātou i tēnei mō te wā tuatahi i roto i tā mātou pūrongo whiwhinga moni ā-hauwhā e whai ake nei.
He kēmu haumi hurihuri a Cleveland-Cliffs. I runga i tana utu iti, te tirohanga whiwhinga moni me te taiao utu pai o ngā taonga, me ngā āhuatanga nui o muri i ngā mahere hanganga a Biden, ki taku whakaaro he pai tonu mō ngā kaipupuri moni roa ki te tango i ngā tūranga. Ka taea tonu te hoko i te hekenga me te tāpiri atu ki ngā tūranga o nāianei mēnā kei roto i te tauākī whiwhinga moni o te hauwhā tuatahi o te tau 2021 te kupu "hokohia te rongo, hokona te rongo."
Ko Cleveland-Cliffs tētahi o ngā whakaaro maha kua kitea e Laurentian Research i roto i te ao rauemi taiao hou, ā, kua hokona atu ki ngā mema o The Natural Resources Hub, he ratonga mākete e tuku tonu ana i ngā hua nui me te iti o te mōrearea.
Hei tohunga rauemi taiao me ngā tau maha o te wheako haumi angitu, ka whakahaerehia e au he rangahau hōhonu hei kawe mai i ngā whakaaro hua nui, iti te mōrearea ki ngā mema o te Pokapū Rauemi Taiao (TNRH). Ka arotahi ahau ki te tautuhi i te uara hohonu kounga teitei i roto i te rāngai rauemi taiao me ngā pakihi awaawa iti te uara, he huarahi haumi kua kitea he whai hua i roto i ngā tau.
Kua tukuna ki konei ētahi tauira poto o aku mahi, ā, ko te tuhinga 4x kāore i poto i tukuna tonutia ki TNRH, te ratonga mākete rongonui a Seeking Alpha, ka kitea hoki e koe:
Rēhita mai i konei i tēnei rā, ā, whai hua mai i te pūhara rangahau matatau me te TNRH a Laurentian Research i tēnei rā!
Whakakitenga: Haunga ahau, he waimarie a TNRH ki te whai i ētahi atu kaituhi e tuku kōrero ana, e whakapuaki ana hoki i ō rātou whakaaro mō tō tātou hapori e tupu haere ana. Kei roto i ēnei kaituhi ko Silver Coast Research me ētahi atu. E hiahia ana ahau ki te whakanui ko ngā tuhinga i tukuna mai e ēnei kaituhi he hua nō ā rātou ake rangahau me te tātaritanga motuhake.
Whakakitenga: He kamupene CLF roa ahau/mātou. Nāku anō tēnei tuhinga i tuhi, ā, e whakaatu ana i ōku ake whakaaro. Kāore au i whiwhi utu (haunga a Seeking Alpha). Kāore he hononga pakihi āku ki tētahi o ngā kamupene kua whakarārangihia i roto i tēnei tuhinga.