"Tora mari yedu yese, mabasa edu makuru, migodhi nemahovhoni ecoke, asi siya sangano redu, uye mumakore mana ndichazvivaka patsva."— Andrew Carnegie
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) yaimbova kambani yekuchera iron ore ichipa iron ore pellets kune vanogadzira simbi.Yakapotsa yaparara muna 2014 apo mukuru mukuru Lourenco Goncalves akatumidzwa zita rekuti muponesi.
Makore manomwe gare gare, Cleveland-Cliffs ikambani yakasiyana zvachose, yakabatanidzwa muindasitiri yekugadzira simbi uye izere nesimba.Chikamu chekutanga cha2021 ndicho chikamu chekutanga mushure mekubatanidza kwakatwasuka.Kufanana nemuongorori anofarira, ndinotarisira mishumo yekuwana mari yekota uye kutarisa kwekutanga mhedzisiro yemari yekuchinja kunoshamisa, ndichifunga nezvenyaya dzakati wandei senge.
Zvakaitika kuCleveland Cliffs mukati memakore manomwe apfuura zvingangodzika munhoroondo semuenzaniso wekare weshanduko inodzidziswa mumakirasi ekuAmerica echikoro chebhizinesi.
Gonçalves akatora chigaro muna Nyamavhuvhu 2014 "kambani iri kunetseka kurarama iine portfolio isina kurongeka yakazara nezvinhu zvisingashande zvakavakwa zvinoenderana nehurongwa husina kunaka" (ona pano).Akatungamira nhanho dzakati wandei dzekambani, kutanga nekuwedzera kwemari, ichiteverwa nemidziyo yesimbi (kureva simbi yakaraswa) nekupinda mubhizinesi resimbi:
Mushure mekushandura kwakabudirira, 174-year-old Cleveland-Cliffs yave yakasarudzika vertically integrated player, inoshanda kubva kumigodhi (iron ore mining uye pelletizing) kusvika pakunatsa (kugadzirwa kwesimbi) (Figure 1).
Mumazuva ekutanga eindastiri, Carnegie akashandura bhizinesi rake risingazivikanwe kuita mugadziri wesimbi mukuru weAmerica kusvika aitengesa kuUS Steel (X) muna 1902. Sezvo mutengo wakaderera uri iwo mutsara unoyera wevatori vechikamu muindasitiri yemabhasikoro, Carnegie akatora nzira mbiri huru dzekuwana mutengo wakaderera wekugadzira:
Nekudaro, nzvimbo yepamusoro yenzvimbo, kusanganisa kwakamira uye kunyange kuwedzera kwesimba kunogona kudzokororwa nevakwikwidzi.Kuti kambani irambe ichikwikwidza, Carnegie aigara achiunza hutsva hwetekinoroji, aigara achidzoreredza purofiti mumafekitari, uye aigara achitsiva midziyo yechinyakare.
Iyi capitalization inobvumira kune ese ari maviri akaderera mutengo wevashandi uye kuvimba nevashoma vashandi vane hunyanzvi.Akagadzira izvo zvakazozivikanwa se "hard drive" maitiro ekuenderera mberi kwekuvandudza kuti awane zvibereko zvezvibereko izvo zvaizowedzera kugadzirwa nekuderedza mutengo wesimbi (ona pano).
Kubatanidzwa kwakatwasuka kunoteverwa naGonsalves kunotorwa mumutambo naAndrew Carnegie, kunyange zvazvo Cleveland Cliff iri nyaya yekubatanidza mberi (kureva kuwedzera bhizinesi rezasi kune bhizinesi rekumusoro) pane nyaya yekudzokera shure inotsanangurwa pamusoro apa.
Nekutorwa kweAK Steel neArcelorMittal USA muna 2020, Cleveland-Cliffs iri kuwedzera huwandu hwakazara hwezvigadzirwa kune yayo iripo iron ore uye pelletizing bhizinesi, kusanganisira HBI;flat zvigadzirwa mu carbon simbi, Stainless simbi, magetsi, yepakati uye inorema simbi.refu zvigadzirwa, kabhoni simbi uye Stainless simbi pombi, inopisa uye kutonhora forging uye anofa.Yakazvimisikidza semutungamiri mumusika wakakurumbira wemotokari, uko inotonga huwandu uye huwandu hwezvigadzirwa zvesimbi.
Kubva pakati pa2020, indasitiri yesimbi yakapinda munzvimbo yakanaka kwazvo yemitengo.Mitengo yepamba yakamonerwa coil (kana HRC) muUS Midwest yakawedzera katatu kubva Nyamavhuvhu 2020, ichisvika rekodhi yakakwira pamusoro pemadhora zana nemakumi matatu nemazana matatu/t kubva pakati paKubvumbi 2020 (Mufananidzo 2).
Mufananidzo.
Cliffs ichabatsirwa nemitengo yakakwirira yesimbi.Kutorwa kweArcelorMittal USA kunobvumira kambani kuramba iri pamusoro pemitengo inopisa-yakatenderedzwa nepo zvibvumirano zvepagore zvemotokari, kunyanya kubva kuAK Steel, zvinogona kutaurirana zvichikwira muna 2022 (gore rimwe pazasi pemitengo).
Cleveland-Cliffs akavimbisa kakawanda kuti ichatevera "huzivi hwekukosha pamusoro pehuwandu" uye haizokwidzi chikamu chemusika kuwedzera kushandiswa kwehunyanzvi, kunze kweindasitiri yemotokari, iyo iri kubatsira kuchengetedza mamiriro emitengo iripo.Nekudaro, kuti vezera vane tsika yakadzika midzi yekufunga vanozopindura sei kune Goncalves 'cues yakavhurika kumubvunzo.
Mitengo yesimbi nezvinhu zvaishandiswawo yakanga yakanaka.Muna Nyamavhuvhu 2014, Gonçalves paakave CEO weCleveland-Cliffs, 62% Fe iron ore yaikosha madhora makumi mapfumbamwe nematanhatu/tani, uye pakati paKubvumbi 2021, 62% Fe iron ore yaikosha $173/ton (Mufananidzo 1).Poshi).Chero bedzi mitengo yesimbi inoramba yakagadzikana, Cleveland Cliffs ichasangana nekukwira kwakanyanya kwemutengo wesimbi ore pellets iyo inotengesa kune vechitatu vekugadzira simbi vachiwana mutengo wakaderera wekutenga iron ore pellets kubva pachayo.
Kana zviri zvirashwa zvemidziyo yemagetsi arc furnaces (kureva magetsi arc furnaces), kukurumidza kwemutengo kungangoenderera kwemakore mashanu anotevera kana zvakadaro nekuda kwekudiwa kwakasimba muChina.China ichapeta kaviri huwandu hwemavira ayo emagetsi arc mumakore mashanu anotevera kubva padanho rayo razvino rematani e100 metric toni, ichikwidza mitengo yesimbi dzakaraswa - nhau dzakaipa dzeUS magetsi esimbi zvigayo.Izvi zvinoita kuti sarudzo yaCleveland-Cliffs ivake chirimwa cheHBI muToledo, Ohio ive yakanyanyisa hunyanzvi hwekuita.Iyo yekuzvimiririra yega yesimbi inotarisirwa kubatsira kusimudzira purofiti yeCleveland-Cliffs mumakore anotevera.
Cleveland-Cliffs inotarisira kutengesa kwayo kwekunze kwesimbi ore pellets kuve 3-4 miriyoni yakareba matani pagore mushure mekuchengetedza zvemukati zvemukati kubva muchoto chayo chinoputika uye zvirimwa zvinoderedza zvakananga.Ndinotarisira kuti kutengesa kwepellet kurambe kuri padanho iri maererano nekukosha pamusoro pehuwandu hwemusimboti.
Kutengeswa kweHBI pachirimwa cheToledo kwakatanga muna Kurume 2021 uye icharamba ichikura muchikamu chechipiri cha2021, ichiwedzera nzira itsva yemari yeCleveland-Cliffs.
Cleveland-Cliffs manejimendi aitarisa yakagadziridzwa EBITDA yemadhora mazana mashanu emamiriyoni mukota yekutanga, madhora mazana maviri emadhora mukota yechipiri uye mabhiriyoni mazana matatu emadhora muna 2021, pamusoro pekubvumirana kwemuongorori.Zvinangwa izvi zvinomiririra kuwedzera kwakakosha kubva pamadhora mazana maviri nemakumi masere nematanhatu akanyorwa muchikamu chechina cha2020 (Mufananidzo 3).
Mufananidzo 3. Cleveland-Cliffs mari yekota uye yakagadziridzwa EBITDA, chaiyo uye fungidziro.Kwakabva: Laurentian Research, Natural Resources Center, yakavakirwa pane zvemari data rakabudiswa naCleveland-Cliffs.
Kufembera uku kunosanganisira 150M synergy ichaitwa muna 2021 sechikamu chemari inosvika mazana matatu nemakumi matatu emamiriyoni emadhora kubva mukugadzirisa zvinhu, hupfumi hwehukuru uye optimization yepamusoro.
Cleveland-Cliffs haafanire kubhadhara mutero mumari kusvika $492 miriyoni yenet deferred tax assets yapera.Management haitarisire zvakakosha mari yekushandisa kana kutora.Ini ndinotarisira kuti kambani ichaunza yakakosha mari yemahara muna 2021. Management inotarisira kushandisa mari yemahara kudzikisa chikwereti neinosvika bhiriyoni imwe yemadhora.
Iyo 2021 Q1 muhoro musangano wekufona wakarongerwa Kubvumbi 22, 2021 na10:00 AM ET (tinya pano).Panguva yekufona kwemusangano, vatengesi vanofanirwa kutarisisa kune zvinotevera:
Vagadziri vesimbi vekuUS vakatarisana nemakwikwi akaomarara kubva kune vagadziri vekunze vanogona kuwana rubatsiro rwehurumende kana kuchengetedza mari yekuchinja yakaderera zvichienzaniswa nedhora rekuAmerica uye/kana vashandi vashoma, zvigadzirwa, simba nemitengo yezvakatipoteredza.Hurumende yeUS, kunyanya hutongi hwaTrump, yakatanga kuferefetwa kwekutengeserana uye yakatemera Section 232 tariffs pakutenga kunze kwesimbi.Kana Section 232 tariffs ikaderedzwa kana kubviswa, kunze kwenyika simbi kunobva kunze kuchaita zvakare kuderedza mitengo yesimbi yemumba uye kukuvadza Cleveland Cliffs 'anovimbisa kudzoreredza mari.Mutungamiri Biden haasati aita shanduko huru kumutemo wekutengeserana wehutongi hwapfuura, asi vanoisa mari vanofanirwa kuziva nezvekusagadzikana uku.
Kutorwa kweAK Steel neArcelorMittal USA kwakaunza mabhenefiti makuru kuCleveland-Cliffs.Nekudaro, iyo inoguma yakatwasuka yekubatanidza inotakurawo njodzi.Chekutanga, Cleveland-Cliffs ichakanganisika kwete chete nekutenderera kwesimbi ore kutenderera, asiwo nekusagadzikana kwemusika muindasitiri yemotokari, izvo zvinogona kutungamira mukusimbaradzika kwehutungamiriri hwekambani. Chechipiri, zvakatorwa zvakasimbisa kukosha kweR&D. Chechipiri, zvakatorwa zvakasimbisa kukosha kweR&D.Chechipiri, izvi zvakatorwa zvakaratidza kukosha kwekutsvaga nekusimudzira. Chechipiri, kuwanikwa kunoratidza kukosha kweR&D.Chizvarwa chechitatu NEXMET 1000 uye NEXMET 1200 AHSS zvigadzirwa, izvo zvakareruka, zvakasimba uye zvinoumbwa, zviri kugadzirwa zvevatengi vemotokari, nehuwandu husina chokwadi hwekusuma kumusika.
Cleveland-Cliffs manejimendi anoti ichatungamira kusikwa kwekukosha (maererano nekudzoka kune yakasimwa capital kana ROIC) pamusoro pekuwedzera vhoriyamu (ona pano).Izvo zvinoramba zvichionekwa kana manejimendi achigona kuita iyi yakaomesesa manejimendi manejimendi mune inozivikanwa cyclical indasitiri.
Kune kambani ine makore zana nemakumi manomwe nemana ine vakawanda vakasiya basa mupenjeni uye zvirongwa zvekurapa, Cleveland-Cliffs inotarisana nemitengo yakakwira yekushandisa kupfuura vamwe vezera rayo.Hukama hwevashandi ndeimwe nyaya yakaoma.Musi waKubvumbi 12, 2021, Cleveland-Cliffs akapinda muchibvumirano chechinguvana chemwedzi makumi mashanu nenhatu neUnited Steelworkers yekondirakiti itsva yebasa pachirimwa cheMansfield, ichimirira kupihwa mvumo kubva kunhengo dzemubatanidzwa.
Tichitarisa iyo $3.5 bhiriyoni Yakagadziridzwa EBITDA nhungamiro, Cleveland-Cliffs inotengeserana pachiyero cheEV/EBITDA che4.55x.Sezvo Cleveland-Cliffs iri bhizinesi rakasiyana kwazvo mushure mekuwana AK Steel neArcelorMittal USA, nhoroondo yayo yepakati EV/EBITDA ye7.03x inogona kureva chinhu zvakare.
Indasitiri vezera US Steel ine nhoroondo yepakati EV/EBITDA ye6.60x, Nucor 9.47x, Steel Dynamics (STLD) 8.67x uye ArcelorMittal 7.40x.Kunyangwe hazvo migove yeCleveland-Cliffs yakakwira inosvika mazana mashanu muzana kubva payakagadzika muna Kurume 2020 (Mufananidzo 4), Cleveland-Cliffs ichiri kutaridzika kusakosha kana ichienzaniswa neavhareji yeindasitiri.
Munguva yedambudziko reCCIDID-19, Cleveland-Cliffs yakamisa madhora ayo 0.06 pachikamu chekota muna Kubvumbi 2020 uye haisati yatanga zvakare kubhadhara migove.
Pasi pehutungamiriri hweMukuru Mukuru Lourenko Goncalves, Cleveland-Cliffs akaita shanduko inoshamisa.
Sekuona kwangu, Cleveland-Cliffs iri pamberi pekuputika kwemuhoro uye kubuda kwemahara kwemari, izvo zvandinofunga kuti tichaona kekutanga pamushumo wedu unotevera wemari yekota.
Cleveland-Cliffs ndeye cyclic yekudyara mutambo.Tichifunga nezvekushomeka kwake, maonero emihoro uye yakanaka nharaunda yemitengo yezvinhu, pamwe neakanyanya mabheji zvinhu kuseri kwezvirongwa zvezvivakwa zveBiden, ndinofunga zvichiri zvakanaka kuti vanodyara mari kwenguva refu vatore zvinzvimbo.Zvinogara zvichikwanisika kutenga dip uye kuwedzera kune iripo zvinzvimbo kana iyo 2021 Q1 mari yekutaura ine mutsara wekuti "tenga runyerekupe, tengesa nhau."
Cleveland-Cliffs ingori imwe yemazano akawanda Laurentian Tsvagiridzo yakawana munzvimbo inosimukira yezviwanikwa uye yakatengeswa kunhengo dzeThe Natural Resources Hub, sevhisi yemusika inogara ichiunza kudzoka kwakakwira nenjodzi yakaderera.
Semazvikokota wezviwanikwa ane makore mazhinji eruzivo rwekudyara rwakabudirira, ndinoita tsvakiridzo yakadzama kuti ndiunze mazano ane goho guru, asina njodzi kunhengo dze Natural Resources Center (TNRH).Ini ndinotarisisa pakuona kukosha kwemhando yepamusoro muchikamu chezviwanikwa uye mabhizinesi asingakosheserwe emoat, nzira yekudyara iyo yakaratidza kushanda mumakore apfuura.
Mamwe masampuli akapfupikiswa ebasa rangu anotumirwa pano, uye chinyorwa chisina kupfupikiswa che4x chakabva chaiswa paTNRH, Kutsvaga Alpha's yakakurumbira musika sevhisi, kwaunogona kuwana zvakare:
Bhalisa pano nhasi uye ubatsirwe kubva kuLaurentian Research's advanced research uye TNRH chikuva nhasi!
Kubuditsa pachena: Kunze kwangu, TNRH ine rombo rakanaka kuva nevamwe vabatsiri vakati wandei vanotumira uye kugovera maonero avo munharaunda yedu inobudirira.Vanyori ava vanosanganisira Silver Coast Research et al.Ndinoda kusimbisa kuti zvinyorwa zvakapihwa nevanyori ava chibereko chetsvakiridzo nekuongorora kwavo kwakazvimirira.
kuburitsa: Ini/isu tiri venguva refu yeCLF.Ndakanyora chinyorwa ichi pachangu uye chinotaura maonero angu.Ini handina muripo (kunze kweKutsvaga Alpha).Ini handina hukama hwebhizinesi nechero yemakambani akanyorwa muchinyorwa chino.