“Thabatha yonke imali yethu, izenzo zethu ezinkulu, iimayini kunye nee-oven ze-coke, kodwa ushiye umbutho wethu, kwaye kwiminyaka emine ndiza kuzakha kwakhona.” – Andrew Carnegie
ICleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) yayikade iyinkampani yokugrumba i-iron ore enikezela ngeepellets ze-iron ore kubavelisi bentsimbi. Yaphantse yawa ngo-2014 xa umphathi omkhulu uLourenco Goncalves watyunjwa njengomlindi wobomi.
Kwiminyaka esixhenxe kamva, iCleveland-Cliffs yinkampani eyahlukileyo ngokupheleleyo, edityaniswe ngokuthe nkqo kushishino lokucubungula intsimbi kwaye igcwele amandla. Ikota yokuqala ka-2021 yikota yokuqala emva kokuhlanganiswa ngokuthe nkqo. Njengaye nawuphi na umhlalutyi onomdla, ndilangazelela iingxelo zengeniso zekota kunye nokujonga okokuqala iziphumo zemali zotshintsho olumangalisayo, ndithathela ingqalelo imiba eliqela efana nale.
Okwenzekileyo eCleveland Cliffs kwiminyaka esixhenxe edlulileyo kusenokwenzeka ukuba kubhalwe kwimbali njengomzekelo oqhelekileyo wotshintsho oluza kufundiswa kwiiklasi zezikolo zoshishino zaseMelika.
UGonçalves wathatha izintambo ngo-Agasti 2014 “inkampani eyayisokola ukusinda inepotifoliyo engacwangciswanga kakuhle egcwele izinto ezingasebenzi kakuhle ezakhiwe ngokwesicwangciso esingalunganga” (jonga apha). Wakhokela amanyathelo aliqela eqhinga lenkampani, eqala ngokuchuma kwezemali, elandelwa zizinto zesinyithi (oko kukuthi isinyithi esilahliweyo) waza wangena kwishishini lesinyithi:
Emva kotshintsho oluphumeleleyo, iCleveland-Cliffs eneminyaka eli-174 ubudala ibe ngumdlali odibeneyo ngokukodwa, osebenza ukusuka ekumbeni isinyithi (ukumbiwa kwesinyithi kunye nokufaka iipelletizing) ukuya ekucokiseni (ukuveliswa kwentsimbi) (Umfanekiso 1).
Kwiminyaka yokuqala yoshishino, uCarnegie waguqula ishishini lakhe elibizwa ngokuba yi-eponymous laba ngumenzi wentsimbi ophambili eMelika de walithengisa kwi-US Steel (X) ngo-1902. Ekubeni ixabiso eliphantsi liyinto ebalulekileyo kubathathi-nxaxheba kushishino olujikelezayo, uCarnegie uye wasebenzisa amaqhinga amabini aphambili okufikelela kwixabiso eliphantsi lemveliso:
Nangona kunjalo, indawo ephezulu yejografi, ukuhlanganiswa ngokuthe nkqo kunye nokwandiswa kwamandla kunokuphinda-phindwa ngabakhuphisana nabo. Ukuze inkampani ihlale ikhuphisana, uCarnegie wayehlala evelisa izinto ezintsha zobuchwepheshe, etyala imali rhoqo kwiifektri, kwaye etshintsha izixhobo eziphelelwe lixesha rhoqo.
Olu tyalo-mali luvumela ukuba kuncitshiswe iindleko zabasebenzi kwaye kuxhomekeke kubasebenzi abangenazakhono. Wamisela oko kwaziwa ngokuba yinkqubo "ye-hard drive" yokuphucula okuqhubekayo ukuze kuzuzwe inzuzo yemveliso eya kunyusa imveliso ngelixa kunciphisa ixabiso lentsimbi (jonga apha).
Ukuhlanganiswa okuthe nkqo okulandelwa nguGonsalves kuthathwe kumdlalo ka-Andrew Carnegie, nangona iCleveland Cliff ingumzekelo wokuhlanganiswa kwangaphambili (oko kukuthi ukongeza ishishini elingaphantsi komsinga kwishishini elingaphezulu komsinga) kunokuba ibe yimeko yokuhlanganiswa okungasemva okuchazwe apha ngasentla.
Ngokufunyanwa kwe-AK Steel kunye ne-ArcelorMittal USA ngo-2020, iCleveland-Cliffs yongeza uluhlu olupheleleyo lweemveliso kwishishini layo elikhoyo le-iron ore kunye ne-pelletizing, kuquka i-HBI; iimveliso ezithe tyaba kwi-carbon steel, i-stainless steel, umbane, intsimbi ephakathi kunye nenzima. iimveliso ezinde, i-carbon steel kunye nemibhobho yentsimbi engatyiwayo, ukubumba kunye nokutshisa okushushu nokubandayo. Izibonakalise njengenkokeli kwimarike yeemoto edumileyo, apho ilawula khona ubungakanani kunye noluhlu lweemveliso zentsimbi engatyiwayo.
Ukususela phakathi kowama-2020, ishishini lentsimbi lingene kwimeko entle kakhulu yamaxabiso. Amaxabiso asekhaya e-hot rolled coil (okanye i-HRC) kwi-US Midwest aphindeke kathathu ukusukela ngo-Agasti 2020, afikelela kwirekhodi ephezulu ngaphezulu kwe-$1,350/t phakathi ku-Epreli 2020 (Umfanekiso 2).
Umfanekiso 2. Amaxabiso afumaneka kwi-62% ye-iron ore (ekunene) kunye namaxabiso e-HRC asekhaya kwi-US Midwest (ekhohlo) xa i-CEO yeCleveland-Cliffs uLourenko Gonçalves wathatha indawo, njengoko kulungisiwe kwaye umthombo utshintshiwe.
ICliffs iza kuxhamla ngamaxabiso aphezulu entsimbi. Ukuthengwa kweArcelorMittal USA kuvumela inkampani ukuba ihlale ixabisa amaxabiso aphantsi ngelixa izivumelwano zonyaka zezithuthi ezinamaxabiso asisigxina, ikakhulu ezivela kwi-AK Steel, zinokuxoxwa ngazo ukuya phezulu ngo-2022 (unyaka omnye ungaphantsi kwamaxabiso aphantsi).
ICleveland-Cliffs iqinisekisile ngokuphindaphindiweyo ukuba iza kulandela "ifilosofi yexabiso ngaphezu komthamo" kwaye ayiyi kwandisa isabelo semarike ukwandisa ukusetyenziswa kwamandla, ngaphandle kweshishini leemoto, elinceda ngokuyinxenye ukugcina imeko yangoku yamaxabiso. Nangona kunjalo, indlela oontanga abacinga ngokujikelezayo abaya kusabela ngayo kwizikhokelo zikaGoncalves ivulelekile ukuba ibuze.
Amaxabiso e-iron ore kunye nezinto eziluhlaza nawo ayelungile. Ngo-Agasti 2014, xa uGonçalves waba yi-CEO yeCleveland-Cliffs, i-62% ye-Fe iron ore yayixabisa malunga ne-$96/ton, kwaye phakathi ku-Epreli 2021, i-62% ye-Fe iron ore yayixabisa malunga ne-$173/ton (Umfanekiso 1). Logama nje amaxabiso e-iron ore ehlala ezinzile, iCleveland Cliffs iya kujongana nokunyuka okukhulu kwexabiso le-iron ore pellets eyithengisayo kubenzi bentsimbi besithathu ngelixa ifumana ixabiso eliphantsi lokuthenga i-iron ore pellets kuyo.
Ngokuphathelele izinto ezilahliweyo zee-arc furnaces zombane (oko kukuthi ii-arc furnaces zombane), isantya sexabiso sinokuqhubeka kwiminyaka emihlanu ezayo okanye ngaphezulu ngenxa yemfuno enkulu eTshayina. ITshayina iya kuphinda kabini amandla ee-arc furnaces zayo zombane kwiminyaka emihlanu ezayo ukusuka kwinqanaba layo langoku leetoni ezili-100 zemetric, nto leyo enyusa amaxabiso esinyithi esilahliweyo - iindaba ezimbi kwiifektri zesinyithi zombane zaseMelika. Oku kwenza isigqibo seCleveland-Cliffs sokwakha isityalo se-HBI eToledo, eOhio sibe sisicwangciso esikrelekrele kakhulu. Ukubonelela ngesinyithi ngokwaso kulindeleke ukuba kuncede ekunyuseni inzuzo yeCleveland-Cliffs kwiminyaka ezayo.
ICleveland-Cliffs ilindele ukuba intengiso yayo yangaphandle yeepellets zesinyithi ibe ziitoni ezinde ezizizigidi ezi-3-4 ngonyaka emva kokufumana izinto zangaphakathi ezivela kwi-blast furnace yayo kunye nezityalo zokunciphisa ngokuthe ngqo. Ndilindele ukuba intengiso yeepellets ihlale kweli nqanaba ngokuhambelana nomgaqo wexabiso elingaphezulu kwevolumu.
Intengiso ye-HBI kwisityalo saseToledo yaqala ngoMatshi 2021 kwaye iya kuqhubeka ikhula kwikota yesibini ka-2021, yongeza umjelo omtsha wengeniso kwiCleveland-Cliffs.
Ulawulo lweCleveland-Cliffs belujolise kwi-EBITDA ehlengahlengisiweyo ye-$500 yezigidi kwikota yokuqala, i-$1.2 yezigidigidi kwikota yesibini kunye ne-$3.5 yezigidigidi ngo-2021, ngaphezulu kakhulu kwesivumelwano sabahlalutyi. Ezi njongo zimele ukonyuka okukhulu ukusuka kwi-$286 yezigidi ezirekhodwe kwikota yesine ka-2020 (Umfanekiso 3).
Umfanekiso 3. Ingeniso yekota yeCleveland-Cliffs kunye ne-EBITDA elungisiweyo, yokwenyani kunye noqikelelo. Umthombo: Uphando lweLaurentian, iZiko leMithombo yeNdalo, ngokusekelwe kwidatha yezemali epapashwe yiCleveland-Cliffs.
Olu qikelelo luquka intsebenziswano ye-$150M eza kufezekiswa ngo-2021 njengenxalenye yentsebenziswano iyonke ye-$310M evela ekuphuculeni iiasethi, uqoqosho lomlinganiselo kunye nokulungiswa kweendleko eziphezulu.
ICleveland-Cliffs ayizukuhlawula irhafu ngemali de kuphele i-$492 yezigidi zeerandi zeempahla zerhafu ezirhoxisiweyo. Abaphathi abalindeli ukuba kubekho iindleko ezinkulu okanye ukuthengwa kwenkampani. Ndilindele ukuba inkampani ivelise imali eninzi yasimahla ngo-2021. Abaphathi baceba ukusebenzisa imali yasimahla ukunciphisa amatyala ubuncinane nge-$1 yezigidigidi.
Umnxeba wenkomfa yengeniso yekota yokuqala ka-2021 ucwangciselwe umhla wama-22 ku-Epreli, ngo-2021 ngentsimbi ye-10:00 AM ET (cofa apha). Ngexesha lomnxeba wenkomfa, abatyali-mali kufuneka baqwalasele oku kulandelayo:
Abenzi besinyithi baseMelika bajongene nokhuphiswano olunzima oluvela kubavelisi bamanye amazwe abanokufumana inkxaso-mali karhulumente okanye bagcine izinga lokutshintshiselana eliphantsi ngokwenziwa ngokuchasene nedola yaseMelika kunye/okanye iindleko eziphantsi zabasebenzi, izinto ezisetyenzisiweyo, amandla kunye nokusingqongileyo. Urhulumente wase-US, ingakumbi ulawulo lukaTrump, uqalise uphando olujolise kurhwebo kwaye wabeka iirhafu zeCandelo 232 kwiimpahla ezithe tyaba ezingeniswayo. Ukuba iirhafu zeCandelo 232 ziyancitshiswa okanye ziyasuswa, ukungeniswa kwentsimbi yangaphandle kuya kuphinda kuhlise amaxabiso entsimbi yasekhaya kwaye konakalise ukubuyiselwa kwemali okuthembisayo kweCleveland Cliffs. UMongameli uBiden akakenzi utshintsho olubalulekileyo kumgaqo-nkqubo worhwebo wolawulo lwangaphambili, kodwa abatyali-mali kufuneka baqaphele oku kungaqiniseki ngokubanzi.
Ukuthengwa kwe-AK Steel kunye ne-ArcelorMittal USA kuzise iingenelo ezinkulu kwiCleveland-Cliffs. Nangona kunjalo, ukuhlanganiswa okuthe nkqo okubangelwe koku kukwanomngcipheko. Okokuqala, iCleveland-Cliffs ayizukuchaphazeleka kuphela ngumjikelo wokwembiwa kwesinyithi, kodwa ikwachaphazeleka nakukungazinzi kwemarike kwishishini leemoto, okunokukhokelela ekomelezeni ulawulo lwenkampani ngokujikeleza. Okwesibini, ukuthengwa kwezinto kugxininise ukubaluleka kwe-R&D. Okwesibini, ukuthengwa kwezinto kugxininise ukubaluleka kwe-R&D.Okwesibini, ezi zinto zifunyenweyo zibonise ukubaluleka kophando nophuhliso. Okwesibini, ukuthengwa kwezinto kugxininisa ukubaluleka kwe-R&D.Iimveliso zesizukulwana sesithathu ze-NEXMET 1000 kunye ne-NEXMET 1200 AHSS, ezikhaphukhaphu, eziqinileyo nezinokubumbeka, ngoku zenzelwe abathengi beemoto, ngesantya esingaqinisekanga sokungeniswa kwimarike.
Ulawulo lweCleveland-Cliffs luthi luza kubeka phambili ukudalwa kwexabiso (ngokubhekiselele kwimbuyekezo kwimali etyaliweyo okanye i-ROIC) kunokwandiswa kwevolumu (jonga apha). Kusaza kubonakala ukuba ulawulo lunokuyiphumeza ngempumelelo le ndlela ingqongqo yolawulo lobonelelo kwishishini elidume ngokujikeleza.
Kwinkampani eneminyaka eli-174 ubudala enabadla umhlala-phantsi abaninzi kwizicwangciso zayo zomhlala-phantsi nezonyango, iCleveland-Cliffs ijongene neendleko zokusebenza eziphezulu kunabanye abalingane bayo. Ubudlelwane bemibutho yabasebenzi ngomnye umba onzima. Ngomhla we-12 ku-Epreli 2021, iCleveland-Cliffs yangena kwisivumelwano sexeshana seenyanga ezingama-53 ne-United Steelworkers sesivumelwano esitsha somsebenzi kwisityalo saseMansfield, silinde imvume evela kumalungu emibutho yasekuhlaleni.
Xa sijonga isikhokelo se-Adjusted EBITDA se-$3.5 billion, iCleveland-Cliffs irhweba nge-forward EV/EBITDA ratio ye-4.55x. Ekubeni iCleveland-Cliffs ilishishini elahlukileyo kakhulu emva kokufumana i-AK Steel kunye ne-ArcelorMittal USA, i-median yayo yembali ye-EV/EBITDA ye-7.03x isenokungathethi nto.
Ontanga kushishino i-US Steel ine-avareji ye-EV/EBITDA yembali ye-6.60x, i-Nucor 9.47x, i-Steel Dynamics (STLD) 8.67x kunye ne-ArcelorMittal 7.40x. Nangona izabelo zeCleveland-Cliffs zinyuke malunga ne-500% ukusukela oko zawela phantsi ngoMatshi 2020 (Umfanekiso 4), iCleveland-Cliffs isabonakala ingaxatyiswanga kangako xa ithelekiswa nomndilili we-multiple kushishino.
Ngexesha lengxaki yeCovid-19, iCleveland-Cliffs yamisa isabelo sayo sekota se-$0.06 ngesabelo ngo-Epreli 2020 kwaye ayikaphindi ihlawule isabelo.
Phantsi kobunkokeli be-CEO uLourenko Goncalves, iCleveland-Cliffs itshintshe kakhulu.
Ngokoluvo lwam, iCleveland-Cliffs ikwimeko yokwanda kwengeniso kunye nokuhamba kwemali yasimahla, endicinga ukuba siza kuyibona okokuqala kwingxelo yethu yengeniso yekota elandelayo.
ICleveland-Cliffs ngumdlalo wotyalo-mali ojikelezayo. Ngenxa yokungaxabisi kwakhe, imbonakalo yengeniso kunye nemeko entle yamaxabiso eemveliso, kunye nezinto eziphambili ezibangela ukuba izicwangciso zeziseko zophuhliso zikaBiden zibe nzima, ndicinga ukuba kusengcono kubatyali-mali bexesha elide bathathe izikhundla. Kusoloko kunokwenzeka ukuthenga i-dip kwaye wongeze kwizikhundla ezikhoyo ukuba ingxelo yengeniso ye-Q1 ka-2021 inebinzana elithi "thenga amarhe, thengisa iindaba."
ICleveland-Cliffs yenye nje yeengcinga ezininzi ezifunyenwe yiLaurentian Research kwiindawo zemithombo yendalo ezisakhulayo kwaye zithengiswe kumalungu eNatural Resources Hub, inkonzo yemarike ehlala inika imbuyekezo ephezulu ngomngcipheko omncinci.
Njengengcali yezixhobo zendalo eneminyaka emininzi yamava otyalo-mali aphumeleleyo, ndenza uphando olunzulu ukuze ndizise izimvo ezinenzuzo ephezulu nezinomngcipheko omncinci kumalungu eZiko leZixhobo zeNdalo (i-TNRH). Ndigxila ekuchongeni ixabiso eliphantsi elisemgangathweni kwicandelo lezixhobo zendalo kunye namashishini e-moat angaxatyiswanga, indlela yokutyala imali eye yabonakala isebenza kwiminyaka edlulileyo.
Ezinye iisampulu zomsebenzi wam ezifinyeziweyo ziposiwe apha, kwaye inqaku elingafinyeziweyo le-4x liposiwe ngoko nangoko kwi-TNRH, iSeeking Alpha's popular marketplace service, apho unokufumana khona:
Bhalisa apha namhlanje kwaye uzuze kuphando oluphambili lweLaurentian Research kunye neqonga le-TNRH namhlanje!
Ingcaciso: Ngaphandle kwam, i-TNRH inethamsanqa lokuba nabanye abantu abanikelayo abathumela kwaye babelane ngezimvo zabo malunga noluntu lwethu oluchumayo. Aba babhali baquka iSilver Coast Research nabanye. Ndingathanda ukugxininisa ukuba amanqaku anikezelwe ngaba babhali ayimveliso yophando lwabo oluzimeleyo kunye nohlalutyo.
Ingcaciso: Mna/thina singamalungu e-CLF exesha elide. Ndibhale eli nqaku ngokwam kwaye liveza uluvo lwam. Andifumananga mbuyekezo (ngaphandle kweSeeking Alpha). Andinabudlelwane beshishini nayo nayiphi na inkampani edweliswe kweli nqaku.