"Tengani ndalama zathu zonse, ntchito zathu zazikulu, migodi ndi ma uvuni, koma siyani gulu lathu, ndipo m'zaka zinayi ndidzimanganso."- Andrew Carnegie
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) kale inali kampani yobowola chitsulo yopereka ma pellets achitsulo kwa opanga zitsulo.Zinatsala pang'ono kugwa mu 2014 pomwe wamkulu wamkulu Lourenco Goncalves adatchedwa wopulumutsa anthu.
Zaka zisanu ndi ziwiri pambuyo pake, Cleveland-Cliffs ndi kampani yosiyana kotheratu, yophatikizidwa m'makampani opanga zitsulo komanso yodzaza ndi mphamvu.Gawo loyamba la 2021 ndilo gawo loyamba pambuyo pa kuphatikiza koyima.Monga katswiri aliyense wokonda chidwi, ndikuyembekezera malipoti opeza mwezi uliwonse ndikuyang'ana koyamba zotsatira zandalama zomwe zasintha modabwitsa, poganizira zinthu zingapo monga
Zomwe zidachitika ku Cleveland Cliffs pazaka zisanu ndi ziwiri zapitazi zikuyenera kugwa m'mbiri monga chitsanzo chakusintha koyenera kuphunzitsidwa m'makalasi akusukulu aku America.
Gonçalves adatenga udindo mu Ogasiti 2014 "kampani yomwe ikuvutika kuti ipulumuke ndi mbiri yosalongosoka yodzaza ndi zinthu zosakwanira bwino zomwe zidamangidwa motsatira njira yolakwika kwambiri" (onani apa).Anatsogolera njira zingapo zoyendetsera kampaniyo, kuyambira ndikukula kwachuma, kutsatiridwa ndi zida zachitsulo (mwachitsanzo zitsulo) ndikulowa bizinesi yazitsulo:
Pambuyo pa kusintha kopambana, Cleveland-Cliffs wazaka za 174 wakhala wosewera wapadera wophatikizika, akugwira ntchito kuchokera ku migodi (migodi yachitsulo ndi pelletizing) mpaka kuyeretsa (kupanga zitsulo) (Chithunzi 1).
Kumayambiriro kwa makampaniwa, Carnegie adatembenuza bizinesi yake yodziwika bwino kukhala wopanga zitsulo ku America mpaka adagulitsa ku US Steel (X) mu 1902. Popeza mtengo wotsika ndi mtengo wopatulika wa omwe adatenga nawo gawo pamakampani opanga ma cyclical, Carnegie adatengera njira ziwiri zazikulu zopezera mtengo wotsika mtengo:
Komabe, malo apamwamba, kuphatikizika koyima komanso ngakhale kukulitsa mphamvu kumatha kutsatiridwanso ndi omwe akupikisana nawo.Pofuna kuti kampaniyo ikhale yopikisana, Carnegie nthawi zonse ankayambitsa zamakono zamakono, akubwezeretsanso phindu m'mafakitale, ndipo nthawi zambiri amalowetsa zipangizo zamakono.
Kukwera mtengo uku kumapangitsa kuti achepetse ndalama zogwirira ntchito komanso kudalira anthu omwe ali ndi luso lochepa.Anakhazikitsa zomwe zinadziwika kuti "hard drive" ndondomeko yopititsira patsogolo kuti akwaniritse zokolola zomwe zingawonjezere kupanga ndikuchepetsa mtengo wazitsulo (onani apa).
Kuphatikizika kosunthika komwe kumatsatiridwa ndi Gonsalves kumatengedwa kuchokera mu sewero la Andrew Carnegie, ngakhale Cleveland Cliff ndi nkhani yolumikizana patsogolo (mwachitsanzo, kuwonjezera bizinesi yakumunsi kubizinesi yakumtunda) m'malo motengera kuphatikizika komwe kwafotokozedwa pamwambapa.
Ndikupeza AK Steel ndi ArcelorMittal USA mu 2020, Cleveland-Cliffs akuwonjezera zinthu zambiri pabizinesi yomwe ilipo yachitsulo ndi ma pelletizing, kuphatikiza HBI;zinthu lathyathyathya mu carbon zitsulo, zitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri, magetsi, sing'anga ndi heavy zitsulo.mankhwala yaitali, mpweya zitsulo ndi mapaipi zitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri, otentha ndi ozizira forging ndi kufa.Yadzikhazikitsa yokha ngati mtsogoleri pamsika wotchuka kwambiri wamagalimoto, komwe imayang'anira kuchuluka kwake komanso kuchuluka kwazinthu zachitsulo.
Kuyambira pakati pa 2020, makampani azitsulo alowa m'malo abwino kwambiri amitengo.Mitengo yapakhomo (kapena HRC) ku US Midwest yachuluka katatu kuyambira Ogasiti 2020, kufika pamtengo wokwera kwambiri kuposa $1,350/t kuyambira pakati pa Epulo 2020 (Chithunzi 2).
Chithunzi 2. Mitengo yaposachedwa ya 62% yachitsulo (kumanja) ndi mitengo yapakhomo ya HRC ku US Midwest (kumanzere) pamene CEO wa Cleveland-Cliffs Lourenko Gonçalves adatenga udindo, monga momwe zasinthidwa ndi gwero.
Ma Cliffs adzapindula ndi mitengo yapamwamba yachitsulo.Kupeza kwa ArcelorMittal USA kumapangitsa kampaniyo kukhala pamwamba pamitengo yotentha pomwe makontrakitala amitengo yapachaka, makamaka kuchokera ku AK Steel, atha kukambitsirana mu 2022 (chaka chimodzi pansi pamitengo).
Cleveland-Cliffs wakhala akutsimikizira mobwerezabwereza kuti adzatsatira "lingaliro lamtengo wapatali kuposa kuchuluka kwa voliyumu" ndipo sichidzakulitsa gawo la msika kuti liwonjezere kugwiritsiridwa ntchito kwa mphamvu, kupatulapo makampani oyendetsa galimoto, omwe akuthandizira kusunga malo omwe akukhalapo.Komabe, momwe anzawo omwe ali ndi malingaliro okhazikika okhazikika angayankhire zomwe Goncalves akuwonetsa ndizosavuta kufunsa.
Mitengo yachitsulo ndi zipangizo zinalinso zabwino.Mu Ogasiti 2014, Gonçalves atakhala CEO wa Cleveland-Cliffs, 62% Fe iron ore inali yamtengo wapatali pafupifupi $96/ton, ndipo pofika pakati pa Epulo 2021, 62% Fe iron ore inali yokwana $173/ton (Chithunzi 1).imodzi).Malingana ngati mitengo yachitsulo imakhalabe yokhazikika, Cleveland Cliffs adzayang'anizana ndi kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa mtengo wazitsulo zachitsulo zomwe zimagulitsa kwa opanga zitsulo zachitatu pamene akulandira mtengo wotsika wogula mapepala achitsulo kuchokera kwa iwo okha.
Ponena za zida zopangira ng'anjo zamagetsi zamagetsi (ie ng'anjo zamagetsi zamagetsi), kukwera kwamitengo kukuyembekezeka kupitilira zaka zisanu zikubwerazi kapena kupitilira apo chifukwa chakufunika kwakukulu ku China.China idzawonjezera kuchuluka kwa ng'anjo zake zamagetsi pazaka zisanu zikubwerazi kuchokera pamlingo wake wamakono wa matani 100, ndikukweza mitengo yazitsulo - mbiri yoyipa kwa mphero zazitsulo zamagetsi zaku US.Izi zimapangitsa chisankho cha Cleveland-Cliffs chomanga chomera cha HBI ku Toledo, Ohio kukhala njira yanzeru kwambiri.Kudzidalira kwachitsulo kukuyembekezeka kuthandiza kulimbikitsa phindu la Cleveland-Cliffs m'zaka zikubwerazi.
Cleveland-Cliffs akuyembekeza kugulitsa kunja kwa ma pellets a iron ore kukhala matani 3-4 miliyoni aatali pachaka atapeza zinthu zamkati kuchokera ku ng'anjo yake yophulika ndi zomera zochepetsera mwachindunji.Ndikuyembekeza kuti malonda a pellet akhalebe pamlingo uwu mogwirizana ndi mtengo wamtengo wapatali.
Kugulitsa kwa HBI pafakitale ya Toledo kudayamba mu Marichi 2021 ndipo kupitilira kukula mu gawo lachiwiri la 2021, ndikuwonjezera ndalama zatsopano za Cleveland-Cliffs.
Oyang'anira a Cleveland-Cliffs amayang'ana EBITDA ya $ 500 miliyoni mgawo loyamba, $ 1.2 biliyoni mgawo lachiwiri ndi $ 3.5 biliyoni mu 2021, pamwamba pa mgwirizano wa akatswiri.Zolinga izi zikuyimira chiwonjezeko chachikulu kuchokera pa $286 miliyoni yolembedwa mgawo lachinayi la 2020 (Chithunzi 3).
Chithunzi 3. Cleveland-Cliffs ndalama zokwana kotala ndikusintha EBITDA, zenizeni ndi zowonetseratu.Gwero: Laurentian Research, Natural Resources Center, yochokera pazachuma chofalitsidwa ndi Cleveland-Cliffs.
Zoloserazo zikuphatikiza mgwirizano wa $ 150M womwe udzachitike mu 2021 ngati gawo la mgwirizano wa $310M kuchokera pakukhathamiritsa kwachuma, chuma chambiri komanso kukhathamiritsa kwapamwamba.
Cleveland-Cliffs sadzayenera kulipira misonkho mpaka $492 miliyoni yachuma chomwe sichinasinthidwe chatha.Oyang'anira sayembekezera kuwononga kwakukulu kapena kugulidwa.Ndikuyembekeza kuti kampaniyo ipanga ndalama zambiri zaulere mu 2021. Oyang'anira akufuna kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama zaulere kuti achepetse ngongole ndi $ 1 biliyoni.
Kuyimba kwa msonkhano wazopeza za 2021 Q1 kukonzedwa pa Epulo 22, 2021 nthawi ya 10:00 AM ET (dinani apa).Pamsonkhanowu, osunga ndalama ayenera kulabadira izi:
Opanga zitsulo aku US amakumana ndi mpikisano wokhwima kuchokera kwa opanga akunja omwe angalandire thandizo la boma kapena kukhalabe ndi ndalama zotsika mtengo poyerekeza ndi dola yaku US ndi/kapena kuchepa kwa ntchito, zopangira, mphamvu ndi chilengedwe.Boma la US, makamaka oyang'anira a Trump, adayambitsa kafukufuku wokhudzana ndi malonda ndikuyika msonkho wa Gawo 232 pazogulitsa zitsulo zathyathyathya.Ngati msonkho wa Gawo 232 uchepetsedwa kapena kuthetsedwa, kutulutsa zitsulo zakunja kudzatsitsanso mitengo yazitsulo zapakhomo ndikuwononga ndalama zomwe Cleveland Cliffs adalonjeza.Purezidenti Biden sanasinthebe kwambiri mfundo zamalonda zamaboma am'mbuyomu, koma osunga ndalama akuyenera kudziwa za kusatsimikizika uku.
Kupeza kwa AK Steel ndi ArcelorMittal USA kunabweretsa phindu lalikulu kwa Cleveland-Cliffs.Komabe, kuphatikiza koyima komwe kumatsatira kumakhalanso ndi zoopsa.Choyamba, Cleveland-Cliffs idzakhudzidwa osati kokha ndi kayendedwe ka migodi yachitsulo, komanso chifukwa cha kusakhazikika kwa msika mumsika wamagalimoto, zomwe zingayambitse kulimbitsa kasamalidwe ka kampani. Kachiwiri, zopezazo zatsimikizira kufunikira kwa R&D. Kachiwiri, zopezazo zatsimikizira kufunikira kwa R&D.Chachiwiri, zopezazi zidawonetsa kufunikira kwa kafukufuku ndi chitukuko. Chachiwiri, zopeza zimawonetsa kufunikira kwa R&D.M'badwo wachitatu wa NEXMET 1000 ndi NEXMET 1200 AHSS mankhwala, omwe ndi opepuka, amphamvu komanso okhoza kuumbika, akupangidwira makasitomala amagalimoto, ndi chiwongolero chosadziwika bwino cha msika.
Oyang'anira a Cleveland-Cliffs akuti adzayika patsogolo kupanga phindu (potengera kubweza ndalama zomwe adazigulitsa kapena ROIC) pakukulitsa kuchuluka kwa voliyumu (onani apa).Zikuwonekerabe ngati oyang'anira atha kugwiritsa ntchito bwino njira yoyendetsera kasamalidwe kazinthu zamabizinesi odziwika bwino.
Kwa kampani yazaka 174 yomwe ili ndi anthu ambiri opuma pantchito ndi mapulani ake azachipatala, Cleveland-Cliffs amayang'anizana ndi ndalama zonse zoyendetsera ntchito kuposa anzawo ena.Mgwirizano wa mabungwe ogwira ntchito ndi nkhani ina yovuta.Pa Epulo 12, 2021, Cleveland-Cliffs adachita mgwirizano kwakanthawi kwa miyezi 53 ndi United Steelworkers kuti agwire ntchito yatsopano pafakitale ya Mansfield, podikirira chivomerezo cha mamembala amgwirizano wakomweko.
Kuyang'ana chiwongolero cha EBITDA cha $ 3.5 biliyoni, Cleveland-Cliffs amagulitsa pamlingo wamtsogolo wa EV/EBITDA wa 4.55x.Popeza Cleveland-Cliffs ndi bizinesi yosiyana kwambiri atapeza AK Steel ndi ArcelorMittal USA, mbiri yake yapakatikati EV/EBITDA ya 7.03x singatanthauzenso kanthu.
Ochita nawo makampani US Steel ili ndi mbiri yakale ya EV/EBITDA ya 6.60x, Nucor 9.47x, Steel Dynamics (STLD) 8.67x ndi ArcelorMittal 7.40x.Ngakhale magawo a Cleveland-Cliffs akwera pafupifupi 500% kuyambira pomwe adatsika mu Marichi 2020 (Chithunzi 4), Cleveland-Cliffs akuwonekabe wocheperako poyerekeza ndi kuchuluka kwamakampani.
Panthawi yamavuto a Covid-19, Cleveland-Cliffs adayimitsa $ 0.06 pagawo lililonse gawo lililonse mu Epulo 2020 ndipo sanayambirenso kupereka malipiro.
Motsogozedwa ndi CEO Lourenko Goncalves, Cleveland-Cliffs wasintha kwambiri.
M'malingaliro anga, Cleveland-Cliffs ali pafupi kuphulika kwa ndalama zomwe amapeza komanso ndalama zaulere, zomwe ndikuganiza kuti tiziwona koyamba pa lipoti lathu lotsatira lazopeza kotala.
Cleveland-Cliffs ndi masewera oyendetsa ndalama.Potengera kutsika mtengo kwake, momwe amapezera ndalama komanso malo abwino amitengo, komanso zinthu zazikulu zomwe zidayambitsa mapulani a Biden, ndikuganiza kuti ndizabwinobe kuti osunga ndalama nthawi yayitali atenge maudindo.Nthawi zonse ndizotheka kugula dip ndikuwonjezera malo omwe alipo ngati ndondomeko ya ndalama za 2021 Q1 ili ndi mawu akuti "gulani mphekesera, gulitsani nkhani."
Cleveland-Cliffs ndi amodzi mwa malingaliro ambiri omwe Laurentian Research adapeza m'malo achilengedwe omwe akubwera ndikugulitsidwa kwa mamembala a The Natural Resources Hub, ntchito yamsika yomwe imabweretsa phindu lalikulu mosavutikira.
Monga katswiri wodziwa zachilengedwe yemwe ali ndi zaka zambiri zochita bwino pazachuma, ndimachita kafukufuku wozama kuti ndibweretse malingaliro opindulitsa kwambiri, opanda chiopsezo kwa mamembala a Natural Resources Center (TNRH).Ndimayang'ana kwambiri kuzindikira zamtengo wapatali kwambiri m'gawo lazachilengedwe komanso mabizinesi otsika mtengo, njira yoyendetsera ndalama yomwe yakhala ikugwira ntchito kwazaka zambiri.
Zitsanzo zina zofupikitsidwa za ntchito yanga zayikidwa pano, ndipo nkhani yosafupikitsidwa ya 4x idatumizidwa nthawi yomweyo pa TNRH, Kufunafuna ntchito yamsika yotchuka ya Alpha, komwe mungapezenso:
Lembetsani pano lero ndikupindula ndi kafukufuku wapamwamba wa Laurentian Research ndi nsanja ya TNRH lero!
Kuwulura: Kupatula ine, TNRH ili ndimwayi kukhala ndi anthu ena angapo omwe amalemba ndikugawana malingaliro awo pagulu lathu lomwe likukula.Olemba awa akuphatikiza Silver Coast Research et al.Ndikufuna kutsindika kuti nkhani zoperekedwa ndi olembawa ndizopangidwa ndi kafukufuku wawo wodziyimira pawokha komanso kusanthula.
Kuwulura: Ine/ife ndife a CLF a nthawi yayitali.Ndinalemba nkhaniyi ndekha ndipo ikufotokoza maganizo anga.Sindinalandire chipukuta misozi (kupatulapo Kufunafuna Alpha).Ndilibe ubale wamabizinesi ndi makampani omwe atchulidwa m'nkhaniyi.