"Ka ɗauki duk kuɗinmu, manyan ayyukanmu, ma'adinai da tanda, amma ku bar ƙungiyarmu, kuma nan da shekaru huɗu zan sake gina kaina."- Andrew Carnegie
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) a da ya kasance kamfanin hako ma'adinai na ƙarfe wanda ke ba da pellet ɗin ƙarfe ga masu kera ƙarfe.Ya kusan yin fatara a cikin 2014 lokacin da aka nada babban jami'in zartarwa Lourenco Goncalves.
Shekaru bakwai bayan haka, Cleveland-Cliffs kamfani ne mabambanta, wanda aka haɗa shi a tsaye cikin masana'antar sarrafa ƙarfe kuma yana cike da kuzari.Kwata na farko na 2021 shine kwata ta farko bayan haɗin kai tsaye.Kamar kowane manazarci mai sha'awar, Ina sa ran samun rahotannin samun kuɗin shiga kwata-kwata da kuma fara duba sakamakon kuɗin da aka samu na canji mai ban mamaki, la'akari da batutuwa da yawa kamar su.
Abin da ya faru a cikin Cliffs Cliffs a cikin shekaru bakwai da suka gabata yana yiwuwa ya shiga tarihi a matsayin babban misali na sauyi da za a koya a azuzuwan makarantun kasuwanci na Amurka.
Gonçalves ya karbi ragamar mulki a cikin watan Agusta 2014 "kamfanin da ke gwagwarmayar rayuwa tare da ruɗewar fayil mai cike da kaddarorin da ba su da aiki wanda aka gina bisa ga mugunyar dabarar da ba ta dace ba" (duba nan).Ya jagoranci matakai masu mahimmanci ga kamfanin, wanda ya fara da haɓakar kuɗi, ya biyo baya da kayan ƙarfe (watau ƙura) da shiga kasuwancin karafa:
Bayan samun nasarar sauyi, Cleveland-Cliffs mai shekaru 174 ya zama ɗan wasa na musamman da aka haɗa a tsaye, yana aiki daga ma'adinai (haƙar ma'adinan ƙarfe da pelletizing) zuwa tacewa (samar da ƙarfe) (Hoto 1).
A farkon zamanin masana'antar, Carnegie ya juya kasuwancinsa mai ban sha'awa a cikin manyan masana'antar ƙarfe na Amurka har sai da ya sayar da shi zuwa Amurka Karfe (X) a cikin 1902. Tun da ƙarancin farashi shine tsarkakakkun masu halartar masana'antar cyclical, Carnegie ya karɓi manyan dabaru guda biyu don cimma ƙarancin farashi na samarwa:
Koyaya, mafi girman wurin yanki, haɗin kai tsaye har ma da faɗaɗa iya aiki na iya yin kwafi ta hanyar masu fafatawa.Don ci gaba da yin gasa na kamfani, Carnegie koyaushe yana gabatar da sabbin sabbin fasahohi, ci gaba da saka hannun jari a masana'antu, kuma akai-akai ya maye gurbin kayan aiki da suka wuce.
Wannan jari-hujja yana ba shi damar rage farashin aiki kuma ya dogara da ƙarancin ƙwararrun ƙwararrun.Ya tsara abin da aka sani da tsarin "hard drive" na ci gaba da ingantawa don cimma nasarar samar da kayan aiki wanda zai kara yawan samarwa yayin rage farashin karfe (duba a nan).
Haɗin kai tsaye da Gonsalves ke bi an ɗauko shi ne daga wasan kwaikwayo na Andrew Carnegie, kodayake Cleveland Cliff lamari ne na haɗin kai na gaba (watau ƙara kasuwancin ƙasa zuwa kasuwancin gaba) maimakon yanayin haɗakarwa da aka kwatanta a sama.
Tare da siyan AK Karfe da ArcelorMittal Amurka a cikin 2020, Cleveland-Cliffs yana ƙara dalla-dalla na samfuran zuwa abubuwan da ke cikin ƙarfe na ƙarfe da kasuwancin pelleting, gami da HBI;lebur kayayyakin a carbon karfe, bakin karfe, lantarki, matsakaici da kuma nauyi karfe.dogon kayayyakin, carbon karfe da bakin karfe bututu, zafi da sanyi ƙirƙira da kuma mutu.Ya kafa kansa a matsayin jagora a cikin mashahurin kasuwar kera motoci, inda ya mamaye girma da kewayon samfuran ƙarfe na lebur.
Tun tsakiyar 2020, masana'antar karafa ta shiga yanayi mai matukar dacewa.Farashin na'ura mai zafi na cikin gida (ko HRC) a cikin Tsakiyar Yamma ta Amurka ya ninka sau uku tun daga watan Agusta 2020, ya kai matsayi mai girma sama da $1,350/t har zuwa tsakiyar Afrilu 2020 (Hoto 2).
Hoto 2. Tabo farashin 62% baƙin ƙarfe tama (dama) da na gida farashin HRC a Amurka Midwest (hagu) lokacin da Cleveland-Cliffs Shugaba Lourenko Gonçalves ya karbi, kamar yadda aka gyara da kuma tushen.
Dutsen dutse za su amfana daga farashin ƙarfe mai yawa.Samun ArcelorMittal Amurka yana ba kamfanin damar kasancewa a saman farashin tabo mai zafi yayin da kwangilar farashin abin hawa na shekara-shekara, da farko daga AK Karfe, za'a iya yin shawarwari sama da 2022 (shekara ɗaya ƙasa da farashin tabo).
Cleveland-Cliffs ya sha ba da tabbacin cewa za ta bi "falsafar darajar fiye da girma" kuma ba za ta ƙara yawan kason kasuwa don ƙara ƙarfin amfani ba, ban da masana'antar kera motoci, wanda ke taimakawa wajen kula da yanayin farashin yanzu.Koyaya, yadda takwarorinsu masu zurfin tunani na al'ada za su amsa abubuwan Goncalves a buɗe don tambaya.
Farashin tama na ƙarfe da albarkatun ƙasa su ma sun yi kyau.A watan Agusta 2014, lokacin da Gonçalves ya zama Shugaba na Cleveland-Cliffs, 62% Fe ƙarfe tama ya kai kusan $96/ton, kuma zuwa tsakiyar Afrilu 2021, 62% Fe ƙarfe tama ya kai kusan $173/ton (Hoto 1).daya).Muddin farashin tama na ƙarfe ya tsaya tsayin daka, Cleveland Cliffs zai fuskanci ƙaƙƙarfan haɓakar farashin ƙarfen taman da take siyarwa ga masu kera ƙarfe na uku yayin da yake samun ƙarancin farashi na siyan pellet ɗin ƙarfe daga kanta.
Dangane da kayan da aka toshe don tanderun baka na lantarki (watau tanderun baka na lantarki), mai yuwuwa farashin zai ci gaba har tsawon shekaru biyar masu zuwa ko makamancin haka saboda tsananin bukata a kasar Sin.Kasar Sin za ta ninka karfin wutar lantarkin ta a cikin shekaru biyar masu zuwa daga matakin da take da shi na metric ton 100 a halin yanzu, wanda hakan zai haifar da hauhawar farashin karafa - mummunan labari ga masana'antar sarrafa karafa ta Amurka.Wannan ya sa yanke shawarar Cleveland-Cliffs na gina shukar HBI a Toledo, Ohio ta zama dabarar dabara ta musamman.Ana sa ran wadatar da karfen mai dogaro da kai zai taimaka wajen bunkasa ribar Cleveland-Cliffs a shekaru masu zuwa.
Cleveland-Cliffs yana tsammanin tallace-tallacen sa na waje na pellet ɗin ƙarfe zai zama ton miliyan 3-4 a kowace shekara bayan ya sami kayan ciki daga tanderun fashewarsa da tsire-tsire masu rage kai tsaye.Ina tsammanin tallace-tallacen pellet zai kasance a wannan matakin daidai da ƙimar fiye da ƙa'idar girma.
Siyar da HBI a shukar Toledo ya fara ne a cikin Maris 2021 kuma zai ci gaba da girma a cikin kwata na biyu na 2021, yana ƙara sabon rafi na kudaden shiga don Cleveland-Cliffs.
Gudanar da Cleveland-Cliffs yana yin niyya ga daidaitawar EBITDA na dala miliyan 500 a farkon kwata, dala biliyan 1.2 a kwata na biyu da dala biliyan 3.5 a cikin 2021, sama da amincewar masu sharhi.Waɗannan maƙasudan suna wakiltar babban haɓaka daga dala miliyan 286 da aka yi rikodin a cikin kwata na huɗu na 2020 (Hoto na 3).
Hoto 3. Cleveland-Cliffs kudaden shiga kwata-kwata da kuma daidaita EBITDA, ainihin da hasashen.Tushen: Binciken Laurentian, Cibiyar Albarkatun Halitta, bisa bayanan kuɗi da Cleveland-Cliffs ya buga.
Hasashen ya haɗa da haɗin gwiwar $150M da za a samu a cikin 2021 a matsayin wani ɓangare na jimlar $310M haɗin gwiwa daga haɓaka kadara, tattalin arziƙin sikeli da haɓaka sama da ƙasa.
Cleveland-Cliffs ba zai biya haraji a tsabar kuɗi ba har sai dala miliyan 492 na kadarorin harajin da aka jinkirta sun ƙare.Gudanarwa baya tsammanin manyan kashe kudi ko saye.Ina tsammanin kamfanin zai samar da gagarumin tsabar kuɗi kyauta a cikin 2021. Gudanarwa yana da niyyar amfani da tsabar kuɗi kyauta don rage bashi da akalla dala biliyan 1.
An shirya kiran taron samun kuɗin shiga na 2021 Q1 don Afrilu 22, 2021 a 10:00 AM ET (danna nan).Yayin kiran taron, masu zuba jari su mai da hankali ga masu zuwa:
Masu kera karafa na Amurka suna fuskantar gasa mai tsanani daga masu kera na waje waɗanda za su iya karɓar tallafin gwamnati ko kula da ƙarancin canji na wucin gadi akan dalar Amurka da/ko ƙananan ma'aikata, albarkatun ƙasa, makamashi da farashin muhalli.Gwamnatin Amurka, musamman gwamnatin Trump, ta kaddamar da bincike kan harkokin kasuwanci tare da sanya harajin sashe na 232 kan karafan da ake shigowa da su kasar.Idan aka rage ko kuma kawar da sashe na 232 haraji, shigo da karafa na kasashen waje za su sake rage farashin karafa na cikin gida da kuma cutar da Cleveland Cliffs na samun farfadowar kudi.Har yanzu Shugaba Biden bai yi wani gagarumin sauye-sauye ga manufofin kasuwanci na gwamnatin da ta gabata ba, amma ya kamata masu zuba jari su san wannan rashin tabbas.
Samun AK Karfe da ArcelorMittal Amurka ya kawo fa'idodi ga Cleveland-Cliffs.Koyaya, sakamakon haɗin kai tsaye shima yana ɗaukar haɗari.Da farko, Cleveland-Cliffs ba zai shafa ba kawai ta hanyar sake zagayowar hakar ma'adinan ƙarfe ba, har ma da rashin daidaituwar kasuwa a cikin masana'antar kera motoci, wanda zai iya haifar da ƙarfafa tsarin tafiyar da kamfanin. Na biyu, abubuwan da aka samu sun nuna mahimmancin R&D. Na biyu, abubuwan da aka samu sun nuna mahimmancin R&D.Na biyu, waɗannan abubuwan da aka samu sun nuna mahimmancin bincike da haɓakawa. Na biyu, saye yana nuna mahimmancin R&D.Ƙarni na uku na NEXMET 1000 da NEXMET 1200 AHSS samfurori, waɗanda suke da haske, masu ƙarfi da kuma m, a halin yanzu ana haɓaka don abokan ciniki na motoci, tare da rashin tabbas na gabatarwa ga kasuwa.
Gudanar da Cleveland-Cliffs ya ce zai ba da fifikon ƙirƙira ƙima (dangane da dawowa kan babban jarin da aka saka ko ROIC) akan haɓaka girma (duba nan).Ya rage a gani ko gudanarwa na iya aiwatar da wannan tsayayyen tsarin kula da wadatar kayayyaki yadda ya kamata a cikin sana'ar da ta shahara.
Ga wani kamfani mai shekaru 174 da ke da ƙarin masu ritaya a cikin fensho da tsare-tsaren kiwon lafiya, Cleveland-Cliffs yana fuskantar mafi girman farashin aiki fiye da wasu takwarorinsa.Dangantakar kungiyar kwadago wani lamari ne mai matukar tayar da hankali.A ranar 12 ga Afrilu, 2021, Cleveland-Cliffs sun shiga yarjejeniya ta wucin gadi ta watanni 53 tare da United Steelworkers don sabuwar kwangilar aiki a shukar Mansfield, tana jiran amincewa daga membobin ƙungiyar gida.
Duban dala biliyan 3.5 Daidaitaccen jagorar EBITDA, Cleveland-Cliffs yana ciniki a gaba na EV/EBITDA rabo na 4.55x.Tunda Cleveland-Cliffs kasuwanci ne daban-daban bayan ya sami AK Karfe da ArcelorMittal Amurka, matsakaicin tarihin EV/EBITDA na 7.03x na iya zama babu wani abu kuma.
Abokan masana'antu US Karfe yana da matsakaicin matsakaici na EV/EBITDA na 6.60x, Nucor 9.47x, Karfe Dynamics (STLD) 8.67x da ArcelorMittal 7.40x.Duk da cewa hannun jarin Cleveland-Cliffs ya haura kusan kashi 500% tun bayan faɗuwar a cikin Maris 2020 (Hoto na 4), Cleveland-Cliffs har yanzu yana da ƙarancin ƙima idan aka kwatanta da matsakaicin masana'antu.
Yayin rikicin Covid-19, Cleveland-Cliffs ya dakatar da $0.06 a kowace rabon rabon kwata-kwata a cikin Afrilu 2020 kuma har yanzu bai ci gaba da biyan rabon ba.
A ƙarƙashin jagorancin Shugaba Lourenko Goncalves, Cleveland-Cliffs ya sami canji mai ban mamaki.
A ra'ayi na, Cleveland-Cliffs yana kan jajibirin fashewa a cikin samun kuɗi da tsabar kuɗi kyauta, wanda ina tsammanin za mu gani a karon farko akan rahoton samun kuɗi na kwata na gaba.
Cleveland-Cliffs wasa ne na saka hannun jari na cyclic.Idan aka yi la'akari da ƙarancinsa, yanayin samun kuɗi da yanayin farashin kayayyaki, da kuma manyan abubuwan da ke tattare da tsare-tsaren abubuwan more rayuwa na Biden, Ina tsammanin har yanzu yana da kyau ga masu saka hannun jari na dogon lokaci su ɗauki mukamai.Yana yiwuwa koyaushe don siyan tsoma kuma ƙara zuwa wuraren da ake da su idan bayanin samun kudin shiga na 2021 Q1 yana da kalmar "siyan jita-jita, sayar da labarai."
Cleveland-Cliffs ɗaya ne daga cikin ra'ayoyi da yawa da Binciken Laurentian ya gano a cikin sararin albarkatun ƙasa da ke tasowa kuma aka sayar wa membobin The Natural Resources Hub, sabis na kasuwa wanda ke ba da babban riba tare da ƙarancin haɗari.
A matsayina na ƙwararren ƙwararren albarkatun ƙasa tare da shekaru masu yawa na ƙwarewar zuba jari mai nasara, Ina gudanar da bincike mai zurfi don kawo yawan amfanin ƙasa, ra'ayoyin ra'ayoyin ra'ayi ga membobin Cibiyar Albarkatun Kasa (TNRH).Na mai da hankali kan gano babban inganci mai zurfi a fannin albarkatun kasa da kasuwancin moat maras kima, tsarin saka hannun jari wanda ya tabbatar da inganci tsawon shekaru.
An buga wasu ƙayyadaddun samfurori na aikina a nan, kuma an buga labarin 4x da ba a gasa ba nan da nan akan TNRH, Neman sanannen sabis na kasuwa na Alpha, inda zaku iya samun:
Yi rijista a nan a yau kuma ku amfana daga ci-gaba na bincike na Laurentian da dandalin TNRH a yau!
Bayyanawa: Ban da ni, TNRH ta yi sa'a don samun wasu masu ba da gudummawa da yawa waɗanda ke aikawa da raba ra'ayoyinsu game da ci gaban al'ummarmu.Waɗannan marubutan sun haɗa da Binciken Ruwa na Silver Coast et al.Ina so in jaddada cewa kasidun da waɗannan marubutan suka bayar sun samo asali ne daga bincike da nazari na kansu.
Bayyanawa: Ni/mu CLF ne na dogon lokaci.Na rubuta wannan labarin da kaina kuma yana bayyana ra'ayi na.Ban sami wani diyya ba (sai Neman Alfa).Ba ni da wata alaƙar kasuwanci da kowane kamfani da aka jera a cikin wannan labarin.