"Ku karɓi duk kuɗinmu, manyan ayyukanmu, ma'adanai da tanda na coke, amma ku bar ƙungiyarmu, kuma cikin shekaru huɗu zan sake gina kaina." - Andrew Carnegie
Kamfanin Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) a da kamfanin haƙa ma'adinan ƙarfe ne da ke samar da ƙwayoyin ƙarfe ga masu samar da ƙarfe. Kusan ya durƙushe a shekarar 2014 lokacin da aka naɗa babban jami'in gudanarwa Lourenco Goncalves a matsayin mai tsaron rai.
Shekaru bakwai bayan haka, Cleveland-Cliffs kamfani ne daban-daban, wanda aka haɗa shi tsaye cikin masana'antar sarrafa ƙarfe kuma cike yake da kuzari. Kwata na farko na 2021 shine kwata na farko bayan haɗin kai tsaye. Kamar kowane mai sharhi mai sha'awar, ina fatan samun rahotannin samun kuɗi na kwata-kwata da kuma duba sakamakon kuɗi na babban sauyi, tare da la'akari da batutuwa da dama kamar
Abin da ya faru a Cleveland Cliffs a cikin shekaru bakwai da suka gabata yana iya shiga tarihi a matsayin misali na sauyi da za a koya a azuzuwan makarantun kasuwanci na Amurka.
Gonçalves ya karɓi ragamar mulki a watan Agusta na 2014 "wani kamfani da ke fama da rashin tsari wanda ke cike da kadarorin da ba su yi aiki yadda ya kamata ba waɗanda aka gina bisa ga mummunan dabarun da ba daidai ba" (duba nan). Ya jagoranci matakai da dama na dabarun kamfanin, farawa da haɓakar kuɗi, sannan kayan ƙarfe (misali ƙarfen da aka ƙera) da shiga harkar ƙarfe:
Bayan samun nasarar sauyi, Cleveland-Cliffs mai shekaru 174 ta zama wata ƙungiya ta musamman da aka haɗa a tsaye, tana aiki tun daga haƙar ma'adinai (haƙar ƙarfe da kuma yin pelletizing) zuwa tacewa (haƙar ƙarfe) (Hoto na 1).
A farkon lokacin masana'antar, Carnegie ya mayar da kasuwancinsa mai suna zuwa babban kamfanin kera ƙarfe na Amurka har sai da ya sayar da shi ga US Steel (X) a shekarar 1902. Tunda ƙarancin farashi shine babban abin da mahalarta masana'antar ke buƙata, Carnegie ta ɗauki manyan dabaru guda biyu don cimma ƙarancin farashin samarwa:
Duk da haka, masu fafatawa za su iya kwaikwayon matsayin ƙasa mai kyau, haɗin kai tsaye, har ma da faɗaɗa ƙarfin aiki. Domin ci gaba da kasancewa mai gasa a kamfanin, Carnegie koyaushe yana gabatar da sabbin sabbin fasahohi, yana sake saka hannun jari a masana'antu, kuma sau da yawa yana maye gurbin kayan aiki da suka tsufa.
Wannan amfani da jarin yana ba shi damar rage farashin ma'aikata da kuma dogaro da ƙarancin ma'aikata. Ya tsara abin da aka sani da tsarin "hard drive" na ci gaba da ingantawa don cimma ribar yawan aiki wanda zai ƙara yawan samarwa yayin da yake rage farashin ƙarfe (duba a nan).
Haɗin kai tsaye da Gonsalves ke bi an ɗauko shi ne daga wasan kwaikwayo na Andrew Carnegie, kodayake Cleveland Cliff misali ne na haɗin kai gaba (watau ƙara kasuwancin da ke ƙasa zuwa kasuwancin da ke sama) maimakon batun haɗin kai na baya da aka bayyana a sama.
Tare da sayen AK Steel da ArcelorMittal USA a shekarar 2020, Cleveland-Cliffs tana ƙara cikakken nau'ikan kayayyaki a cikin kasuwancin ma'adinan ƙarfe da pelletizing da take da shi, gami da HBI; samfuran lebur a cikin ƙarfe na carbon, bakin ƙarfe, lantarki, matsakaici da nauyi. samfuran dogaye, bututun ƙarfe na carbon da bututun ƙarfe na bakin ƙarfe, ƙera da kuma ƙera da yawa. Ta kafa kanta a matsayin jagora a cikin kasuwar motoci mai shahara, inda take mamaye yawan da kewayon samfuran ƙarfe masu lebur.
Tun daga tsakiyar shekarar 2020, masana'antar ƙarfe ta shiga cikin yanayi mai kyau na farashi. Farashin coil mai zafi (ko HRC) na cikin gida a tsakiyar Amurka ya ninka sau uku tun daga watan Agusta na 2020, inda ya kai matsayi mafi girma sama da $1,350/t a tsakiyar watan Afrilu na 2020 (Hoto na 2).
Hoto na 2. Farashin tabo na 62% na ma'adinan ƙarfe (dama) da farashin HRC na cikin gida a yankin Midwest na Amurka (hagu) lokacin da Shugaba na Cleveland-Cliffs Lourenko Gonçalves ya karɓi mulki, kamar yadda aka gyara kuma aka samo asali.
Cliffs za ta amfana daga hauhawar farashin ƙarfe. Sayen ArcelorMittal USA yana ba kamfanin damar ci gaba da bin diddigin farashin da ake sayarwa a kasuwa yayin da kwangilar motoci masu tsada ta shekara-shekara, musamman daga AK Steel, za a iya yin shawarwari kan farashin da ya haura sama a shekarar 2022 (shekara ɗaya ƙasa da farashin da ake sayarwa a kasuwa).
Cleveland-Cliffs ta sha nanata cewa za ta bi “falsafar ƙima fiye da girma” kuma ba za ta ƙara yawan kasuwa don ƙara yawan amfani da ƙarfin ba, ban da masana'antar kera motoci, wanda ke taimakawa wajen kiyaye yanayin farashi na yanzu. Duk da haka, yadda takwarorinta masu tunani na zagaye za su mayar da martani ga alamun Goncalves a buɗe suke don tambaya.
Farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe da kayan aiki suma sun yi kyau. A watan Agusta na 2014, lokacin da Gonçalves ya zama Shugaba na Cleveland-Cliffs, kashi 62% na ma'adinan ƙarfe na Fe ya kai kimanin dala $96/ton, kuma a tsakiyar watan Afrilu na 2021, kashi 62% na ma'adinan ƙarfe na Fe ya kai kimanin dala $173/ton (Hoto na 1). ɗaya). Muddin farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe ya ci gaba da kasancewa daidai, Cleveland Cliffs za ta fuskanci ƙaruwa mai yawa a farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe da take sayarwa ga masu yin ƙarfe na ɓangare na uku yayin da take karɓar ƙarancin kuɗin siyan ma'adinan ƙarfe daga kanta.
Dangane da kayan da aka yi amfani da su wajen yin amfani da tanderun lantarki (misali tanderun lantarki), farashin zai ci gaba da hauhawa tsawon shekaru biyar masu zuwa ko makamancin haka saboda tsananin buƙata a China. China za ta ninka ƙarfin tanderun lantarkinta sau biyu a cikin shekaru biyar masu zuwa daga matakin metric tan 100 da take da shi a yanzu, wanda hakan zai ƙara farashin tanderun lantarki - mummunan labari ga masana'antun ƙarfe na Amurka. Wannan ya sanya shawarar Cleveland-Cliffs na gina masana'antar HBI a Toledo, Ohio wani mataki mai matuƙar wayo. Ana sa ran samar da ƙarfe mai wadatar kansa zai taimaka wajen haɓaka ribar Cleveland-Cliffs a cikin shekaru masu zuwa.
Cleveland-Cliffs na sa ran sayar da ƙwayoyin ƙarfe na waje zai kai tan miliyan 3-4 a kowace shekara bayan ya sami kayan cikin gida daga tanderun fashewa da kuma masana'antun rage yawan ƙwayoyin. Ina sa ran sayar da ƙwayoyin zai ci gaba da kasancewa a wannan matakin daidai da ƙa'idar ƙimar fiye da girma.
Tallace-tallacen HBI a masana'antar Toledo sun fara ne a watan Maris na 2021 kuma za su ci gaba da ƙaruwa a kwata na biyu na 2021, wanda hakan zai ƙara sabuwar hanyar samun kuɗi ga Cleveland-Cliffs.
Shugabannin Cleveland-Cliffs sun yi niyya ga daidaita EBITDA na dala miliyan 500 a kwata na farko, dala biliyan 1.2 a kwata na biyu da kuma dala biliyan 3.5 a shekarar 2021, wanda ya fi yadda masu sharhi suka amince da shi. Waɗannan manufofin suna wakiltar ƙaruwa mai yawa daga dala miliyan 286 da aka samu a kwata na huɗu na shekarar 2020 (Hoto na 3).
Siffa ta 3. Kudaden shiga na Cleveland-Cliffs na kwata-kwata da kuma EBITDA da aka gyara, na gaske da na hasashen. Tushe: Laurentian Research, Cibiyar Albarkatun Ƙasa, bisa ga bayanan kuɗi da Cleveland-Cliffs suka buga.
Hasashen ya haɗa da haɗin gwiwa na dala miliyan 150 da za a cimma a shekarar 2021 a matsayin wani ɓangare na jimlar haɗin gwiwa na dala miliyan 310 daga inganta kadarori, tattalin arziki na girma da kuma ingantawa a kan gaba.
Cleveland-Cliffs ba za ta biya haraji da tsabar kuɗi ba har sai dala miliyan 492 na kadarorin harajin da aka jinkirta sun ƙare. Gudanarwa ba ta tsammanin manyan kuɗaɗen jari ko saye-saye ba. Ina tsammanin kamfanin zai samar da kwararar kuɗi kyauta a shekarar 2021. Gudanarwa na da niyyar amfani da kwararar kuɗi kyauta don rage bashi da aƙalla dala biliyan 1.
An shirya taron tara kuɗi na kwata na 1 na shekarar 2021 a ranar 22 ga Afrilu, 2021 da ƙarfe 10:00 na safe agogon ET (danna nan). A lokacin taron, masu zuba jari ya kamata su kula da waɗannan abubuwa:
Masu yin ƙarfe na Amurka suna fuskantar ƙalubale mai tsanani daga masu samar da ƙarfe na ƙasashen waje waɗanda za su iya karɓar tallafin gwamnati ko kuma su ci gaba da samun ƙarancin canjin kuɗi idan aka kwatanta da dalar Amurka da/ko kuma ƙarancin kuɗin aiki, kayan aiki, makamashi da muhalli. Gwamnatin Amurka, musamman gwamnatin Trump, ta ƙaddamar da bincike kan ciniki da aka yi niyya kuma ta sanya harajin Sashe na 232 kan shigo da ƙarfe ba tare da shinge ba. Idan aka rage ko aka kawar da harajin Sashe na 232, shigo da ƙarfe na ƙasashen waje zai sake haifar da raguwar farashin ƙarfe na cikin gida kuma ya cutar da farfadowar kuɗi mai kyau ta Cleveland Cliffs. Shugaba Biden bai yi manyan canje-canje ga manufofin ciniki na tsohuwar gwamnatin ba tukuna, amma ya kamata masu zuba jari su san wannan rashin tabbas na gabaɗaya.
Sayen AK Steel da ArcelorMittal USA ya kawo fa'idodi masu yawa ga Cleveland-Cliffs. Duk da haka, haɗin kai tsaye da aka samu yana ɗauke da haɗari. Da farko, Cleveland-Cliffs ba wai kawai za ta shafi zagayowar haƙar ma'adinan ƙarfe ba, har ma da canjin kasuwa a masana'antar kera motoci, wanda zai iya haifar da ƙarfafawa a cikin gudanarwar kamfanin. Na biyu, saye-sayen ya jaddada muhimmancin bincike da ci gaba. Na biyu, saye-sayen ya jaddada muhimmancin bincike da ci gaba.Na biyu, waɗannan saye-sayen sun nuna muhimmancin bincike da ci gaba. Na biyu, saye-saye suna nuna muhimmancin bincike da ci gaba.Ana haɓaka samfuran NEXMET 1000 da NEXMET 1200 AHSS na ƙarni na uku, waɗanda suke da sauƙi, ƙarfi da kuma sauƙin mold, a halin yanzu ga abokan cinikin motoci, tare da rashin tabbas game da yadda za a fara amfani da su a kasuwa.
Hukumar kula da harkokin kuɗi ta Cleveland-Cliffs ta ce za ta ba da fifiko ga ƙirƙirar ƙima (dangane da ribar jarin da aka zuba ko ROIC) fiye da faɗaɗa yawan kayayyaki (duba a nan). Har yanzu ba a san ko gudanarwa za ta iya aiwatar da wannan tsari mai tsauri na kula da kayayyaki yadda ya kamata a masana'antar da ta shahara a fannin sake zagayowar kuɗi ba.
Ga wani kamfani mai shekaru 174 wanda ke da ƙarin masu ritaya a cikin shirye-shiryen fansho da na likitanci, Cleveland-Cliffs yana fuskantar jimillar kuɗin aiki mafi girma fiye da wasu takwarorinsa. Hulɗar ƙungiyar kwadago wata matsala ce mai sarkakiya. A ranar 12 ga Afrilu, 2021, Cleveland-Cliffs ta shiga yarjejeniyar wucin gadi ta watanni 53 da United Steelworkers don sabon kwangilar aiki a masana'antar Mansfield, har sai an amince da membobin ƙungiyar kwadago ta gida.
Idan aka yi la'akari da jagorancin EBITDA na dala biliyan 3.5 da aka gyara, Cleveland-Cliffs na ciniki a kan rabon EV/EBITDA na gaba na 4.55x. Tunda Cleveland-Cliffs kasuwanci ne daban bayan mallakar AK Steel da ArcelorMittal USA, matsakaicin EV/EBITDA na tarihi na 7.03x ba zai iya zama wani abu ba kuma.
Kamfanonin masana'antu na Amurka suna da matsakaicin matsakaicin EV/EBITDA na tarihi na 6.60x, Nucor 9.47x, Steel Dynamics (STLD) 8.67x da ArcelorMittal 7.40x. Duk da cewa hannun jarin Cleveland-Cliffs ya tashi da kusan kashi 500% tun bayan raguwar darajar hannun jari a watan Maris na 2020 (Hoto na 4), Cleveland-Cliffs har yanzu yana kama da wanda ba shi da ƙima idan aka kwatanta da matsakaicin yawan masana'antar.
A lokacin rikicin Covid-19, Cleveland-Cliffs ta dakatar da rabon hannun jarin dala $0.06 a kowace hannun jari a watan Afrilun 2020 kuma har yanzu ba ta ci gaba da biyan rabon hannun jari ba.
A ƙarƙashin jagorancin Shugaba Lourenko Goncalves, Cleveland-Cliffs ta sami gagarumin sauyi.
A ganina, Cleveland-Cliffs na gab da faɗawa cikin ƙaruwar samun kuɗi da kuma kwararar kuɗi kyauta, wanda ina tsammanin za mu gani a karon farko a rahoton ribar mu na kwata na gaba.
Cleveland-Cliffs wasa ne mai sauye-sauye a fannin saka hannun jari. Ganin yadda yake da ƙarancin farashi, hangen nesa na samun kuɗi da kuma yanayin farashin kayayyaki mai kyau, da kuma manyan abubuwan da ke haifar da rashin tabbas a cikin shirye-shiryen ababen more rayuwa na Biden, ina ganin har yanzu yana da kyau ga masu zuba jari na dogon lokaci su ɗauki matsayi. Kullum yana yiwuwa a sayi raguwar farashi a ƙara wa mukamai da ake da su idan bayanin kuɗin shiga na kwata na 1 na 2021 yana da kalmar "sayi jita-jita, sayar da labarai."
Cleveland-Cliffs ɗaya ce kawai daga cikin ra'ayoyi da Laurentian Research ta gano a cikin ci gaban albarkatun ƙasa kuma ta sayar wa membobin The Natural Resources Hub, wani sabis na kasuwa wanda ke ba da riba mai yawa tare da ƙarancin haɗari.
A matsayina na ƙwararre a fannin albarkatun ƙasa, wanda ke da shekaru da yawa na ƙwarewar saka hannun jari, ina gudanar da bincike mai zurfi don kawo ra'ayoyi masu yawa, masu ƙarancin haɗari ga membobin Cibiyar Albarkatun Ƙasa (TNRH). Ina mai da hankali kan gano babban darajar mai inganci a fannin albarkatun ƙasa da kuma kasuwancin da ba a kimanta su ba, wata hanyar saka hannun jari da ta tabbatar da inganci tsawon shekaru.
An buga wasu ƙananan misalai na aikina a nan, kuma an buga labarin 4x mara taƙaitawa nan da nan akan sanannen sabis na kasuwa na TNRH, Seeking Alpha, inda kuma za ku iya samun:
Yi rijista a nan yau kuma ka amfana daga ci gaban bincike da dandamalin TNRH na Laurentian Research a yau!
Bayyanawa: Baya ga ni, TNRH tana da sa'a da samun wasu masu ba da gudummawa da dama waɗanda ke wallafawa da kuma raba ra'ayoyinsu game da al'ummarmu mai bunƙasa. Waɗannan marubutan sun haɗa da Silver Coast Research da sauransu. Ina so in jaddada cewa labaran da waɗannan marubutan suka bayar sakamakon bincike da nazarin kansu ne.
Bayyanawa: Ni/mu CLF ne na dogon lokaci. Ni ne na rubuta wannan labarin da kaina kuma yana bayyana ra'ayina. Ban sami wani diyya ba (banda Seeking Alpha). Ba ni da wata alaƙa ta kasuwanci da kowace kamfani da aka lissafa a cikin wannan labarin.