I-Friedman Industries (NYSE:FRD) iyiprosesa yekhoyili egoqekile eshisayo. Le nkampani ithenga amakhoyili kubakhiqizi abakhulu bese iwacubungula ukuze aphinde athengiswe kumakhasimende noma kubathengisi bokugcina.
Le nkampani igcine ubuhlakani kwezezimali nokusebenza ukuze ingathinteki kakhulu umjikelezo wokwehla kwemboni. Eqinisweni, iminyaka eyishumi phakathi kokuphela kwenkinga yezezimali nokuqala kwenkinga ye-COVID yayingeyona enhle kangako ezimpahleni iyonke, kodwa imali engenayo yenkampani emaphakathi yayingu-$2.8 million.
Izimpahla ze-FRD bezilokhu zihlotshaniswa namanani ensimbi, njengoba amanani ensimbi aphezulu esho inzuzo ephezulu kanye nesidingo esikhulu semikhiqizo ye-FRD. Ukwehla kwentengo yensimbi okokugcina ezinyangeni eziyi-12 ezedlule kwakungehlukile.
Umehluko kulokhu ukuthi isimo sezomnotho kungenzeka sishintshile, okuphakamisa ukuthi amanani entengo yezimpahla aphakeme ngokwesilinganiso kunangesikhathi esidlule. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-FRD ikhulisa umkhiqizo ngokwakha amafektri amasha futhi isiqalile ukuvikela amanye amabhizinisi ayo, ngemiphumela exubile.
Lezi zinguquko zingase zisikisele ukuthi i-FRD izokwazi ukuthola imali eningi eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo kunangaphambili, ngaleyo ndlela, ithethelele intengo yayo yamasheya yamanje. Kodwa-ke, ukungaqiniseki akukaxazululwa, futhi sikholelwa ukuthi isitoko esinolwazi olutholakalayo siyabiza.
Qaphela: Ngaphandle kokuthi kushiwo ngenye indlela, lonke ulwazi lutholakala kumafayela e-SEC e-FRD. Unyaka wezimali we-FRD uphela ngoMashi 31, ngakho-ke embikweni wayo we-10-K, unyaka wezimali wamanje ubhekisela onyakeni odlule wokusebenza, kanti embikweni wayo we-10-Q, unyaka wokubika wamanje ubhekisela onyakeni osebenzayo wamanje.
Noma yikuphi ukuhlaziywa kwenkampani egxile ezintweni ezijikelezayo noma emikhiqizweni ehlobene nakho akunakukhipha umongo wezomnotho lapho inkampani isebenza khona. Ngokuvamile, sikhetha indlela eqala phansi iye phezulu kunokuhlola, kodwa kulolu hlobo lwenkampani, indlela eqala phezulu iyehla ayinakugwenywa.
Sigxila esikhathini esisukela ngoJuni 2009 kuya kuMashi 2020. Ngokwazi kwethu, lesi sikhathi, nakuba singalingani, saphawulwa ukwehla kwamanani ezimpahla, ikakhulukazi amanani amandla, amazinga enzalo aphansi, kanye nezinqubomgomo zokwandisa imali kanye nokuhlanganiswa kokuhweba komhlaba wonke.
Ishadi elingezansi likhombisa intengo ye-HRC1, inkontileka yesikhathi esizayo ye-hot rolled coil yasekhaya ehlinzekwa kakhulu yi-FRD. Njengoba singabona, isikhathi esinqume ukuhlaziya amanani ahlanganisa kusukela ku-$375 kuya ku-$900 ngethani. Kusobala eshadini ukuthi isenzo sentengo ngemuva kukaMashi 2020 besihluke kakhulu.
I-FRD iyiprosesa engezansi, okusho ukuthi iyiprosesa eseduze kakhulu nekhasimende lokugcina lomkhiqizo wensimbi. I-FRD ithenga ama-hot rolled coils ngobuningi ezigayweni ezinkulu, bese zisikwa, zibunjwe noma ziphinde zithengiswe njengoba zinjalo kumakhasimende okugcina noma abadayisi.
Le nkampani okwamanje inezindawo ezintathu zokusebenza eDecatur, e-Alabama; iLone Star, eTexas; kanye neHickman, e-Arkansas. Izitshalo zase-Alabama nase-Arkansas zinikezelwe ekusikeni ama-coil, kanti isitshalo saseTexas sinikezelwe ekwakheni ama-coil abe amashubhu.
Ukusesha okulula kwe-Google Maps kwesikhungo ngasinye kwembule ukuthi zonke izikhungo ezintathu ziseduze kakhulu nezimboni ezinkulu zemikhiqizo eyaziwayo embonini. Isikhungo se-Lone Star siseduze nesikhungo semikhiqizo ye-US Steel (X). Zombili izitshalo ze-Decatur ne-Hickman ziseduze kakhulu nesitshalo se-Nucor (NUE).
Indawo iyisici esibalulekile kokubili ezindlekweni nasekukhangiseni, njengoba ezokuthutha zidlala indima enkulu emikhiqizweni yensimbi, ngakho-ke ukugxila kuyazuzisa. Izigayo ezinkulu zingase zingakwazi ukucubungula insimbi ngendlela ephumelelayo ehlangabezana nezidingo zamakhasimende okugcina, noma zingagxila kuphela ekulinganiseni izingxenye ezimbalwa zomkhiqizo, zishiye izigayo ezincane njenge-FRD ziphathe okunye.
Njengoba ubona eshadini elingezansi, eminyakeni eyishumi edlule, inzuzo ephelele ye-FRD kanye nenzuzo yokusebenza kuye kwahambisana namanani ensimbi (ishadi layo lentengo lisesigabeni esidlule), njenganoma iyiphi enye inkampani esebenza ngezimpahla.
Okokuqala, zimbalwa kakhulu izikhathi lapho ama-FRD egcwele khona. Ngokuvamile, i-operating leverage iyinkinga yezinkampani ezidinga kakhulu izimpahla. Izindleko ezizinzile ezibangelwa yizikhungo zenza izinguquko ezincane emalini engenayo noma inzuzo enkulu zinomthelela omkhulu emalini engenayo yokusebenza.
Njengoba ishadi elingezansi libonisa, i-FRD ayiphunyuki kuleli qiniso, futhi ukunyakaza kwemali engenayo kuyakhula njengoba isitatimende semali engenayo sehla. Okukhethekile nge-FRD ukuthi ayilahlekelwa yimali eningi lapho amanani emikhiqizo yayo ehla. Lokho kusho ukuthi, ngenkathi i-FRD ithintwa yi-leverage yokusebenza, iyakwazi ukumelana nemijikelezo yebhizinisi ephansi.
Isici sesibili esithakazelisayo ukuthi imali engenayo yokusebenza ye-FRD ephakathi nendawo ngaleso sikhathi yayingu-$4.1 million. Imali engenayo ye-FRD ephakathi nendawo ngaleso sikhathi yayingu-$2.8 million, noma u-70% wemali engenayo yokusebenza. Umehluko kuphela phakathi kwemali engenayo yokusebenza ye-FRD kanye nemali engenayo engenayo yintela yengeniso engu-30%. Lokhu kusho ukuthi inkampani inezindleko ezimbalwa kakhulu zezimali noma ezinye, futhi ngakolunye uhlangothi kunciphisa amandla okusebenzisa imali (kulokhu kwezezimali). Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi i-FRD ayinasikweletu sezezimali phakathi nalesi sikhathi.
Okokugcina, isilinganiso sonyaka sokwehla kwenani kanye nokwehla kwentengo akuzange kuhluke kakhulu ezindlekweni ezinkulu phakathi nesikhathi esihlanganisiwe. Lokhu kusinika ithemba lokuthi inkampani ayizange ibike kabi izindleko zayo ezinkulu, ngakho-ke isebenzisa izindleko ukuthuthukisa imali engenayo ngokubalwa kwezimali.
Siyaqonda ukuthi izindleko zezimali ezigcina isikhathi eside kanye nokuxhaswa ngezimali kuye kwagcina i-FRD inenzuzo ngezikhathi ezinzima embonini yensimbi. Lokhu kuyisici esibalulekile esiqinisekisayo lapho ucabangela i-FRD.
Inhloso yalolu hlaziyo akukhona ukubikezela ukuthi kuzokwenzekani ezintweni ezingalindelekile ezifana namanani ezimpahla, amazinga enzalo kanye nokuhwebelana komhlaba wonke.
Kodwa-ke, singathanda ukuveza ukuthi indawo esikuyo kanye nendawo okungenzeka ithuthuke eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo ibonise izici ezihluke kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa nesimo eminyakeni eyishumi edlule.
Ngokuqonda kwethu, ngenkathi sikhuluma ngentuthuko engakacaci, lezi zinto ezintathu zihluke kakhulu.
Okokuqala, umhlaba awubonakali usondela ekuhlanganisweni okukhulu kwezohwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe. Lokhu kubi emnothweni wonkana, kodwa kuhle kubakhiqizi bezimpahla abangaphansi abangathintwa kakhulu ukuncintisana kwamazwe ngamazwe. Lokho kusobala ukuthi kuyinzuzo kubakhiqizi bensimbi base-US, abahlushwa ukuncintisana ngamanani aphansi, ikakhulukazi abavela eShayina. Yiqiniso, ukwehla kwesidingo okubangelwe ukwehla kwezentengiselwano nakho kube nomthelela omubi ekudingweni kwensimbi.
Okwesibili, amabhange amakhulu emazweni athuthukile aseyishiyile imigomo yezimali yokwandisa ayisebenzisile eminyakeni eyishumi edlule. Asiqiniseki ukuthi kungaba yini umthelela emananini ezimpahla.
Okwesithathu, futhi okuhlobene nezinye ezimbili, ukwehla kwamandla emali emazweni athuthukile sekuqalile kakade, futhi kukhona ukungaqiniseki ngokuthi kuzoqhubeka yini. Ngaphezu kwezingcindezi zokwehla kwamandla emali, izijeziso zakamuva eRussia zithinte nesimo sedola njengemali egciniwe yomhlaba wonke. Zombili lezi zinguquko zibe nomthelela ophakeme emananini ezimpahla.
Futhi, inhloso yethu akukhona ukubikezela amanani ensimbi esikhathi esizayo, kodwa ukukhombisa ukuthi umnotho wezwe lonke ushintshe kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa nesimo phakathi kuka-2009 no-2020. Lokhu kusho ukuthi ama-FRD awakwazi ukuhlaziywa ngenhloso yokubuyela emananini empahla aphakathi nendawo kanye nesidingo seminyaka eyishumi edlule.
Sikholelwa ukuthi izinguquko ezintathu zibaluleke kakhulu esikhathini esizayo se-FRD, ngaphandle kwezinguquko zentengo kanye nobuningi obudingekayo.
Okokuqala, i-FRD yavula isikhungo esisha sesigaba sayo sokusika amakhoyili eHinton, eTexas. Ngokusho kombiko wenkampani we-10-Q wekota yesithathu ka-2021 (Disemba 2021), izindleko zesikhungo sezizonke ezingama-$21 million zisetshenziswe noma zaqongelelwa ngama-$13 million. Inkampani ayikakamemezeli ukuthi lesi sikhungo sizoqala nini ukusebenza.
Lesi sikhungo esisha sizoba nomunye wemishini yokusika emikhulu kunayo yonke emhlabeni, sandisa hhayi kuphela umkhiqizo kodwa futhi nomugqa womkhiqizo onikezwa yinkampani. Lesi sikhungo sitholakala ekhempasini ye-Steel Dynamics (STLD), eqashiswa inkampani ngo-$1 ngonyaka iminyaka engama-99.
Lesi sakhiwo esisha sanda ngefilosofi efanayo yesakhiwo sangaphambilini futhi siseduze kakhulu nomkhiqizi omkhulu ukuze aphathe umkhiqizo oqondile kakhulu kulowo mkhiqizi.
Uma kucatshangelwa isikhathi sokwehla kwenani seminyaka eyi-15, lesi sikhungo esisha sizophinda kabili izindleko zamanje zokwehla kwenani ze-FRD zibe yizigidi ezintathu zamaRandi. Lokhu kuzoba yisici esibi uma amanani ebuyela emazingeni abonwe eminyakeni eyishumi edlule.
Okwesibili, i-FRD iqalile imisebenzi yokuvikela kusukela ngoJuni 2020, njengoba kumenyezelwe embikweni wayo we-FY21 10-K. Ngokuqonda kwethu, ukuvikela kuletha ingozi enkulu yezezimali ekusebenzeni, kwenza ukuhumusha izitatimende zezimali kube nzima kakhulu, futhi kudinga umzamo wokuphatha.
I-FRD isebenzisa ukubalwa kwe-hedge ngenxa yokusebenza kwayo kwe-hedge, okuvumela ukuthi ihlehlise ukuqashelwa kwezinzuzo nokulahlekelwa kuma-derivatives kuze kube yilapho kwenzeka umsebenzi we-hedged, uma ukhona. Isibonelo, ake sithi i-FRD ithengisa inkontileka ekhokhelwe imali ye-HRC ekhokhelwe zingakapheli izinyanga eziyisithupha ngama-$100. Ngosuku inkontileka ekhokhelwe ngalo, intengo yendawo ingu-$50. Inkampani yabe isibhalisa ama-$50 kuma-derivative assets asuka emakethe kuya emakethe kanye nama-$50 kuma-derivative angetholakalanga kwezinye izinzuzo eziphelele. Ukuthengiselana kwangempela kwe-hedge kwenzeka ngosuku olufanayo ngentengo yendawo engu-$50, bese inzuzo ye-OCI iguqulwa ibe yimali engenayo yonyaka ngokungeza ama-$50 ekuthengisweni.
Uma nje umsebenzi ngamunye wokuvimba uthango ugcina uhambisana nomsebenzi wangempela, konke kuzosebenza kahle.Kulokhu, zonke izinzuzo nokulahlekelwa okuvela ezintweni ezisuselwe kuzo zincishiswa kakhulu izinzuzo nokulahlekelwa ekuhwebeni kwangempela.Abafundi bangazijwayeza ukuthenga nokuthengisa ukuvimba uthango njengoba amanani enyuka noma ehla.
Izinkinga ziqala lapho izinkampani zicindezela kakhulu ibhizinisi elingeke lenzeke. Uma inkontileka evela kokunye ibangela ukulahlekelwa, idluliselwa phambili iye enzuzweni ephelele ngaphandle komlingani ongokoqobo ukuze ayikhansele. Isibonelo, ake sithi inkampani ihlela ukuthengisa amakhoyili ayi-10 bese ithengisa izinkontileka eziyi-10 ezikhokhelwe ngemali. Ukwenyuka okungu-20% entengo yendawo kuholela ekulahlekelweni okungu-20% ngenkontileka ngayinye (inzuzo ayicatshangelwa ukuze kube lula). Uma amakhoyili ayi-10 alandelayo ethengiswa ngentengo efanayo yendawo, akukho ukulahlekelwa. Kodwa-ke, uma inkampani igcina ithengisa amakhoyili ayi-5 kuphela ngentengo yendawo, kumele iqaphele ukulahlekelwa kwezinkontileka ezisele.
Ngeshwa, ezinyangeni ezingu-18 nje zokusebenza kokuvikela, i-FRD iqaphele ukulahlekelwa kokuvikela ngokweqile okungu-$10 million (uma kubhekwa izimpahla zentela ezitholwe ngu-$7 million). Lokhu akufakiwe emalini engenayo noma ezindlekweni zezimpahla ezithengisiwe, kodwa kufakiwe kwenye imali engenayo (akufanele kudidaniswe neminye imali engenayo ephelele). Kunoma yikuphi okunye, kungaba yiphutha elibi ukuqaphela ngqo ezitatimendeni zezimali kanye nokuzibophezela kwenkampani ekubuyekezeni inqubomgomo yayo yokuvikela. Ngenxa yokuthi i-FRD yenze imali eningi kulo nyaka futhi ilahlekelwe yimali encane kakhulu, i-FRD ikhulunywa ngayo esigabeni esisodwa kuphela.
Izinkampani zisebenzisa uthango ukuze zandise ukusebenza kahle futhi ngezinye izikhathi zithole inzuzo ngokuthengisa ngentengo engcono lapho umkhiqizo ungatholakali. Kodwa-ke, sikholelwa ukuthi ingozi eyengeziwe ayidingeki futhi, njengoba sibonile, ingadala ukulahlekelwa okukhulu. Uma isetshenziswa, umsebenzi wothango kufanele ube nenqubomgomo yomkhawulo ogcina kakhulu, ungavumeli umsebenzi wothango ukuthi udlule umkhawulo omncane wokuthengisa okubikezelwe kuze kube yilapho lokho kuthengisa kuqinisekile.
Ngaphandle kwalokho, imisebenzi yokuvikela izoba nomthelela omkhulu lapho izinkampani zidinga usizo kakhulu. Isizathu ukuthi ukubalwa kwe-hedge kwehluleka lapho inani le-hedges lidlula ukusebenza kwangempela, okwenzeka kuphela lapho isidingo semakethe sehla, okubangela nokuthi amanani aphansi ehle. Ngenxa yalokho, inkampani izoba sesimweni sokunciphisa imali engenayo kanye nenzuzo ngenkathi kudingeka ikhokhele ukulahlekelwa okwengeziwe kwe-hedge.
Ekugcineni, ukuze kuxhaswe uthango lwayo, izidingo ezikhulayo zempahla kanye nokwakhiwa kwefektri entsha, i-FRD isayine isikhungo semali mboleko ne-JPMorgan Chase (JPM). Ngaphansi kwale ndlela, i-FRD ingaboleka imali efinyelela ku-$70 million ngokusekelwe enanini lempahla yayo yamanje kanye ne-EBITDA bese ikhokhela i-SOFR + 1.7% ebhalansini ekhona.
Kusukela ngoDisemba 2021, inkampani yayinebhalansi esele engu-$15 million kulesi sikhungo. Le nkampani ayishongo ngesilinganiso se-SOFR esisebenzisayo, kodwa isibonelo, isilinganiso sezinyanga ezingu-12 sasingu-0.5% ngoDisemba futhi manje singu-1.5%. Vele, leli zinga lokuxhaswa ngezimali lisaphansi, njengoba ushintsho lwamaphuzu ayi-100 luzoholela kuphela ezindlekweni zenzalo ezengeziwe ezingu-$150,000. Kodwa-ke, ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo, amazinga esikweletu kuzodingeka aqashelwe eduze.
Sesivele sikhulume ngezinye zezingozi ezingemuva kwemisebenzi ye-FRD, kodwa besifuna ukuzibeka ngokucacile engxenyeni ehlukile futhi sixoxe kabanzi.
Njengoba sishilo, i-FRD inezinga lokusebenza, izindleko ezihleliwe, eminyakeni eyishumi edlule, kodwa lokho akusho ukulahlekelwa okukhulu ngisho nasezimakethe ezimbi kakhulu. Njengoba kunesitshalo esengeziwe esakhiwayo esingangeza u-$1.5 million ngonyaka ekuncipheni kwentengo, lokho kuzoshintsha. Inkampani kuzodingeka ithole u-$1.5 million ngonyaka emalini engenayo ngaphandle kwezindleko eziguquguqukayo. Le ngozi ithinta imali engenayo yokubala, hhayi imali engenayo, njengoba isitshalo kungenzeka sikhokhelwe ngokugcwele kulo nyaka.
Siphinde sasho ukuthi i-FRD ayinaso isikweletu, okusho ukuthi akukho nzuzo yezezimali endleleni yokwenyuka noma yokwehla. Manje, inkampani isisayine isikhungo sesikweletu esixhunywe kwizimpahla zayo eziwuketshezi. Umugqa wesikweletu uvumela izinkampani ukuboleka kufika ku-$75 million ngenzalo elingana ne-SOFR +1.7%. Njengoba izinga le-SOFR lonyaka kuleli qophelo lingu-1.25% (kubalwa kusetshenziswa ama-CME futures, njengoba i-SOFR ingenaso isakhiwo sesikhathi), i-FRD ikhokha u-$295,000 ngenzalo ngayinye ebolekiwe engu-$10 million. Njengoba izinga le-SOFR likhuphuka ngamaphuzu ayi-100 ayisisekelo (1%) ngonyaka, i-FRD izokhokha u-$100,000 owengeziwe. I-FRD okwamanje ikweleta u-$15 million, okuhunyushwa njengezindleko zenzalo zonyaka ezingu-$442,000, ezazingekho ekubalweni kweminyaka eyishumi edlule.
Uma kungezwa lezo zindleko ezimbili ndawonye, ​​kanye nokwenyuka kwezinga ngo-1% kulo lonke u-2022, inkampani kuzodingeka ithole inzuzo eyengeziwe engu-$2 million yokusebenza uma kuqhathaniswa nalokho eyayiyikho ngaphambi kwezinguquko zakamuva ze-COVID. Yiqiniso, lokho kucatshangelwa ukuthi inkampani ayikhokhi izikweletu zayo noma ibolekise imali eyengeziwe.
Bese sikhuluma ngengozi yokuvikela, okunzima ukuyilinganisa kodwa ithinteka kakhulu lapho izinkampani zisengozini enkulu. Ingozi ethile yenkampani incike kakhulu ekutheni zingaki izinkontileka ezivuliwe nganoma yisiphi isikhathi nokuthi amanani ensimbi ahamba kanjani. Kodwa-ke, ukulahlekelwa okungenakuqhathaniswa kwezigidi eziyi-10 zamaRandi okuqinisekisiwe kulo nyaka kufanele kuthuthumele umgogodla wanoma yimuphi umtshali-zimali. Sincoma ukuthi izinkampani zibeke imingcele ethile yenqubomgomo emisebenzini yazo yokuvikela. Lena ingozi enkulu ebhekene nenkampani njengamanje.
Ngokuphathelene nokushisa imali, ulwazi esinalo kusukela kwikota yesithathu ka-2021 (Disemba 2021) alulungile neze. I-FRD ayinayo imali eningi, ingamaRandi ayizigidi ezintathu kuphela. Le nkampani kwadingeka ikhokhe amaRandi ayizigidi ezingama-27 emalini eqoqiwe, iningi lawo elivela esakhiweni sayo esisha eTexas, futhi yayinamaRandi ayizigidi eziyi-15 emalini yayo yesikweletu engakhokhiwe.
Kodwa-ke, i-FRD iphinde yandisa ukutshalwa kwezimali kwayo ezinqolobaneni kanye nasezintweni ezitholakalayo phakathi nonyaka njengoba amanani ensimbi enyuka. Kusukela ngo-3Q21, inkampani yayinerekhodi lamaRandi ayizigidi ezingama-83 ezinqolobaneni kanye namaRandi ayizigidi ezingama-26 ezinqolobaneni. Njengoba inkampani ithengisa ezinye izinto ezinqolobaneni, kufanele ithole imali. Uma isidingo sehla kakhulu kangangokuthi impahla ye-FRD iqala ukuncipha, inkampani ingaboleka okwengeziwe kumugqa wesikweletu we-JPMorgan, kuze kufike ku-$75 million. Vele, lokhu kuzobangela izindleko ezinkulu zezimali, ngesilinganiso samanje samaRandi ayizigidi ezingama-2.2 ngonyaka. Lena enye yamaphuzu abalulekile okufanele uwahlole lapho kuvela imiphumela emisha ngo-Ephreli.
Okokugcina, i-FRD iyisitokwe esithengiswa kancane, esinomthamo wansuku zonke omaphakathi wamasheya angaba ngu-5,000. Lesi sitokwe siphinde sibe nesilinganiso sokucela/sokubhida esingu-3.5%, okubhekwa njengokuphezulu. Lokho kuyinto abatshalizimali okufanele bayikhumbule, kodwa akubona bonke abakubona njengengozi.
Ngokombono wethu, iminyaka eyishumi edlule ibonisa isimo esingesihle kubakhiqizi bezimpahla, ikakhulukazi imboni yensimbi yase-US. Kulokhu, ikhono le-FRD lokuthola inzuzo ngenzuzo engenayo yonyaka engama-$2.8 million liwuphawu oluhle.
Vele, ngisho noma sicabangela amazinga entengo yeshumi leminyaka elidlule, asikwazi ukubikezela imali engenayo efanayo ye-FRD ngenxa yezinguquko ezibalulekile ekutshalweni kwezimali kanye nokusebenza kokuvikela. Lokho kusho ukuthi, ngisho noma sicabangela ukubuyela esimweni sangaphambilini, ingozi yenkampani iba nkulu.