Friedman Industries (NYSE:FRD) ndi purosesa ya coil yozungulira yotentha. Kampaniyo imagula coils kuchokera kwa opanga akuluakulu ndikuzikonza kuti zigulitsidwenso kwa makasitomala omaliza kapena ma broker.
Kampaniyo yakhala ikugwiritsa ntchito mosamala ndalama ndi kagwiridwe ka ntchito kuti isakhudzidwe kwambiri ndi kusintha kwa kayendetsedwe ka makampani. Ndipotu, zaka khumi pakati pa kutha kwa vuto la zachuma ndi kuyamba kwa vuto la COVID sizinali zabwino kwambiri pazinthu zonse, koma ndalama zomwe kampaniyo imapeza zinali $2.8 miliyoni.
Zinthu zomwe zili mu FRD nthawi zonse zimakhala zogwirizana ndi mitengo yachitsulo, chifukwa mitengo yokwera yachitsulo imatanthauza phindu lalikulu komanso kufunikira kwakukulu kwa zinthu za FRD. Kugundana komaliza kwa mitengo yachitsulo m'miyezi 12 yapitayi sikunali kosiyana.
Kusiyana kwa nthawi ino ndikuti chilengedwe cha zachuma mwina chasintha, zomwe zikusonyeza kuti mitengo ya zinthu ndi yokwera kuposa momwe inalili m'zaka khumi zapitazi. Kuphatikiza apo, FRD ikuwonjezera kupanga mwa kumanga mafakitale atsopano ndipo yayamba kuteteza mabizinesi ake ena, ndi zotsatira zosiyana.
Kusintha kumeneku kungasonyeze kuti FRD idzatha kupeza ndalama zambiri m'zaka khumi zikubwerazi kuposa momwe idachitira kale, motero, zimatsimikizira mtengo wake wamasheya womwe ulipo. Komabe, kusatsimikizika sikunathetsedwe, ndipo tikukhulupirira kuti masheya omwe ali ndi zambiri zomwe zilipo ndi okwera mtengo.
Chidziwitso: Pokhapokha ngati tanena mwanjira ina, zambiri zonse zimachokera ku ma fayilo a FRD a SEC. Chaka chandalama cha FRD chimatha pa Marichi 31, kotero mu lipoti lake la 10-K, chaka chandalama chapano chikutanthauza chaka chatha chogwirira ntchito, ndipo mu lipoti lake la 10-Q, chaka chapano chikutanthauza chaka chapano chogwirira ntchito.
Kusanthula kulikonse kwa kampani komwe kumayang'ana kwambiri zinthu zozungulira kapena zinthu zina zokhudzana nako sikungachotsere momwe kampaniyo imagwirira ntchito. Kawirikawiri, timakonda njira yoyambira kuchokera pansi kupita pamwamba kuposa kuwerengera mtengo, koma mu mtundu uwu wa kampani, njira yoyambira kuchokera pansi ndi yosapeweka.
Tikuyang'ana kwambiri nthawi kuyambira June 2009 mpaka March 2020. Monga momwe tikudziwira, nthawiyi, ngakhale kuti si yofanana, inali ndi kutsika kwa mitengo ya zinthu, makamaka mitengo ya mphamvu, chiwongola dzanja chotsika, ndi mfundo zokulitsa ndalama komanso kuphatikiza malonda padziko lonse lapansi.
Tchati chomwe chili pansipa chikuwonetsa mtengo wa HRC1, mgwirizano wamtsogolo wa hot rolled coil womwe FRD imapereka makamaka. Monga tikuonera, nthawi yomwe tidaganiza zowunikira mitengo kuyambira $375 mpaka $900 pa tani. Zikuonekeratu kuchokera pa tchati kuti zomwe zachitika pambuyo pa Marichi 2020 zakhala zosiyana kwambiri.
FRD ndi purosesa yotsika, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti ndi purosesa yofanana ndi kasitomala womaliza wa chinthu chachitsulo. FRD imagula ma coil otentha ozungulira ambiri kuchokera ku mphero zazikulu, zomwe zimadulidwa, kupangidwa kapena kugulitsidwanso momwe zilili kwa makasitomala omaliza kapena ma broker.
Kampaniyo pakadali pano ili ndi malo atatu ogwirira ntchito ku Decatur, Alabama; Lone Star, Texas; ndi Hickman, Arkansas. Mafakitale a ku Alabama ndi Arkansas adzipereka kudula ma coil, pomwe fakitale ya ku Texas idzipereka kupanga ma coil kukhala machubu.
Kusaka kosavuta kwa Google Maps pa malo aliwonse kunawonetsa kuti malo onse atatu ali pafupi kwambiri ndi mafakitale akuluakulu a makampani odziwika bwino mumakampaniwa. Malo a Lone Star ali pafupi ndi malo opangira zinthu za US Steel (X). Malo onse a Decatur ndi Hickman ali pafupi kwambiri ndi malo opangira zinthu a Nucor (NUE).
Malo ndi chinthu chofunikira kwambiri pa mtengo ndi malonda, chifukwa zinthu zoyendera zimakhala ndi gawo lalikulu pazinthu zopangidwa ndi chitsulo, kotero kuyika zinthu m'malo mwake kumapindulitsa. Zitsulo zazikulu sizingathe kukonza bwino zitsulo zomwe zimakwaniritsa zomwe makasitomala amafuna, kapena zimangoyang'ana kwambiri pakukhazikitsa magawo angapo a chinthucho, ndikusiya zitsulo zazing'ono monga FRD kuti zizigwira ntchito zina zonse.
Monga mukuonera pa tchati pansipa, m'zaka khumi zapitazi, phindu lonse la FRD ndi phindu logwirira ntchito zasintha mogwirizana ndi mitengo yachitsulo (tchati cha mitengo yake chili mu gawo lapitalo), monga kampani ina iliyonse yogwira ntchito pazinthu zamagetsi.
Choyamba, pali nthawi zochepa kwambiri pamene ma FRD amadzaza. Nthawi zambiri, mphamvu yogwiritsira ntchito ndi vuto kwa makampani omwe amadya zinthu zambiri. Ndalama zokhazikika zomwe zimayambitsidwa ndi malo opangira zinthu zimapangitsa kusintha pang'ono kwa ndalama zomwe amapeza kapena phindu lalikulu zimakhudza kwambiri ndalama zomwe amapeza.
Monga momwe tchati chili pansipa chikusonyezera, FRD siithawa izi, ndipo kayendetsedwe ka ndalama kakukulirakulira pamene lipoti la ndalama likutsika. Chodabwitsa ndi FRD ndichakuti siitaya ndalama zambiri mitengo ya zinthu zake ikatsika. Komabe, ngakhale FRD imakhudzidwa ndi mphamvu zogwirira ntchito, imapirira mavuto a bizinesi.
Mbali yachiwiri yosangalatsa ndi yakuti ndalama zapakati pa ntchito za FRD panthawiyi zinali $4.1 miliyoni. Ndalama zapakati pa ntchito za FRD panthawiyi zinali $2.8 miliyoni, kapena 70% ya ndalama zogwirira ntchito. Kusiyana kokha pakati pa ndalama zogwirira ntchito za FRD ndi ndalama zonse ndi msonkho wa 30%. Izi zikutanthauza kuti kampaniyo ili ndi ndalama zochepa kwambiri kapena zina, ndipo kumbali ina imachepetsa mphamvu (pankhaniyi ndalama). Izi zimachitika chifukwa chakuti FRD inalibe ngongole yazachuma panthawiyi.
Pomaliza, kuchepa kwa mtengo ndi kubweza ngongole pachaka sikunasiyane kwambiri ndi ndalama zomwe zinagwiritsidwa ntchito panthawi yomwe yaperekedwa. Izi zimatipatsa chidaliro kuti kampaniyo sinanene molakwika za ndalama zomwe inagwiritsa ntchito, motero imagwiritsa ntchito ndalama zomwe zinagwiritsidwa ntchito kuti ikonze ndalama kudzera mu akaunti.
Tikumvetsa kuti ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito mosamala komanso ndalama zothandizira zapangitsa kuti FRD ikhale yopindulitsa panthawi yovuta yamakampani opanga zitsulo. Ichi ndi chinthu chofunikira kwambiri cholimbikitsa poganizira za FRD.
Cholinga cha kusanthula kumeneku si kulosera zomwe zidzachitike ku zinthu zosayembekezereka monga mitengo ya zinthu, chiwongola dzanja ndi malonda apadziko lonse.
Komabe, tikufuna kunena kuti malo omwe tili komanso malo omwe akuyembekezeka kukula m'zaka khumi zikubwerazi awonetsa makhalidwe osiyana kwambiri poyerekeza ndi momwe zinthu zilili m'zaka khumi zapitazi.
M'kumvetsetsa kwathu, ngakhale tikulankhula za zochitika zomwe sizikumveka bwino, zinthu zitatuzi ndizosiyana kwambiri.
Choyamba, dziko lapansi silikuwoneka kuti likupita patsogolo kwambiri pakuphatikizana kwa malonda apadziko lonse lapansi. Izi ndizoipa pa chuma chonse, koma zabwino kwa opanga zinthu zochepa omwe sakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi mpikisano wapadziko lonse lapansi. Izi ndi zabwino kwambiri kwa opanga zitsulo aku US, omwe akuvutika ndi mpikisano wotsika, makamaka ochokera ku China. Zachidziwikire, kuchepa kwa kufunikira komwe kudabwera chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa malonda kwakhudzanso kufunikira kwa zitsulo.
Chachiwiri, mabanki apakati m'maiko otukuka asiya mfundo zachuma zomwe adakhazikitsa m'zaka khumi zapitazi. Sitikudziwa momwe zingakhudzire mitengo ya zinthu.
Chachitatu, komanso chokhudzana ndi ziwiri zina, kukwera kwa mitengo m'maiko otukuka kwayamba kale, ndipo palibe kutsimikiza ngati kupitirira. Kuphatikiza pa kupsinjika kwa kukwera kwa mitengo, zilango zaposachedwa zomwe zaperekedwa ku Russia zakhudzanso momwe dola ilili ngati ndalama yosungidwa padziko lonse lapansi. Zonsezi zakhudza mitengo ya zinthu.
Apanso, cholinga chathu si kuneneratu mitengo ya zitsulo zamtsogolo, koma kusonyeza kuti chuma cha dziko lonse chasintha kwambiri poyerekeza ndi momwe zinthu zilili pakati pa 2009 ndi 2020. Izi zikutanthauza kuti ma FRD sangasankhidwe ndi cholinga chobwezeretsanso mitengo yapakati yazinthu ndi kufunikira kwa zaka khumi zapitazi.
Tikukhulupirira kuti kusintha kutatu ndikofunikira kwambiri pa tsogolo la FRD, mosasamala kanthu za kusintha kwa mtengo ndi kuchuluka komwe kumafunika.
Choyamba, FRD idatsegula malo atsopano odulira ma coil ku Hinton, Texas. Malinga ndi lipoti la kampaniyo la 10-Q la kotala lachitatu la 2021 (Disembala 2021), ndalama zonse zomwe zidagwiritsidwa ntchito pa malo odulira ma coil zokwana $21 miliyoni zagwiritsidwa ntchito kapena kusonkhanitsidwa ndi $13 miliyoni. Kampaniyo sinalengeze nthawi yomwe malo odulira ma coil adzayamba kugwira ntchito.
Malo atsopanowa adzakhala ndi imodzi mwa makina akuluakulu odulira zinthu padziko lonse lapansi, osati kungowonjezera kupanga kokha komanso mtundu wa zinthu zomwe kampaniyo imapereka. Malowa ali pa kampasi ya Steel Dynamics (STLD), yomwe kampaniyo imabwerekedwa pa $1 pachaka kwa zaka 99.
Malo atsopanowa akupitilira pa mfundo zomwezo za malo akale ndipo ali pafupi kwambiri ndi opanga akuluakulu kuti azitha kupanga zinthu zomwe ndi zapadera kwambiri kwa opanga amenewo.
Poganizira za nthawi ya zaka 15 ya kuchepa kwa mtengo, malo atsopanowa adzachulukitsa pafupifupi kawiri ndalama zomwe FRD imagwiritsa ntchito pakali pano kufika pa $3 miliyoni. Izi zidzakhala zoyipa ngati mitengo ibwerera pamlingo womwe udawonedwa m'zaka khumi zapitazi.
Chachiwiri, FRD yayamba ntchito zoteteza madera kuyambira mu June 2020, monga momwe yalengezera mu lipoti lake la FY21 10-K. Malinga ndi kumvetsetsa kwathu, kuteteza madera kumabweretsa chiopsezo chachikulu pazachuma pa ntchito, kumapangitsa kutanthauzira kwa malipoti azachuma kukhala kovuta, ndipo kumafuna khama loyang'anira.
FRD imagwiritsa ntchito akaunti yowerengera ndalama zogulira zinthu zotchingira, zomwe zimailola kuti ichedwetse kuzindikira phindu ndi kutayika kwa zinthu zotchingira mpaka ntchito yotchingira, ngati ilipo, itachitika. Mwachitsanzo, tiyerekeze kuti FRD yagulitsa pangano lokhazikika la HRC lomwe lakonzedwa mkati mwa miyezi isanu ndi umodzi pa $100. Pa tsiku lomwe panganolo lakonzedwa, mtengo wake ndi $50. Kenako kampaniyo inalembetsa $50 mu katundu wotchingira womwe ulipo pamsika ndi $50 mu phindu losapezeka mu ndalama zina zonse. Kugulitsa kwenikweni kwa hedge kumachitika tsiku lomwelo pamtengo wotsika wa $50, ndipo phindu la OCI limasinthidwa kukhala ndalama zonse pachaka powonjezera $50 mu malonda.
Bola ngati ntchito iliyonse yoteteza ikugwirizana ndi ntchito yeniyeniyo, chilichonse chidzayenda bwino. Pankhaniyi, phindu lonse ndi kutayika kwa zinthu zochokera kuzinthu zina zimachepetsedwa ndi phindu ndi kutayika kwa malonda enieni. Owerenga amatha kuchita kugula ndi kugulitsa chitetezo pamene mitengo ikukwera kapena kutsika.
Mavuto amayamba pamene makampani achita bizinesi yopitirira muyeso yomwe siidzachitika. Ngati mgwirizano wochokera ku mgwirizanowu wabweretsa kutayika, umapititsidwa patsogolo ku phindu lenileni popanda wogwirizana naye kuti awuthetse. Mwachitsanzo, tiyerekeze kuti kampani ikukonzekera kugulitsa ma coil 10 ndipo motero imagulitsa ma contract 10 okhazikika ndi ndalama. Kuwonjezeka kwa 20% pamtengo wokhazikika kumabweretsa kutayika kwa 20% pa mgwirizano uliwonse (leverage siiganiziridwa kuti ndi yosavuta). Ngati ma coil 10 otsatira agulitsidwa pamtengo womwewo, palibe kutayika. Komabe, ngati kampaniyo yagulitsa ma coil 5 okha pamtengo wokhazikika, iyenera kuzindikira kutayika kwa ma contract otsalawo.
Mwatsoka, m'miyezi 18 yokha ya ntchito zoteteza madera, FRD yazindikira kutayika kwakukulu kwa $10 miliyoni (poganizira $7 miliyoni mu ndalama zomwe zapezedwa ndi misonkho). Izi sizikuphatikizidwa mu ndalama zomwe zapezedwa kapena mtengo wa katundu wogulitsidwa, koma zikuphatikizidwa mu ndalama zina (osati kusokonezedwa ndi ndalama zina zonse). Mulimonsemo, kungakhale kulakwitsa kwakukulu kuzindikira m'mabungwe azachuma ndi kudzipereka kwa kampaniyo kusintha mfundo zake zoteteza madera. Chifukwa FRD yapanga ndalama zambiri chaka chino ndipo yataya zochepa, FRD yatchulidwa mu ndime imodzi yokha.
Makampani amagwiritsa ntchito mpanda kuti awonjezere magwiridwe antchito ndipo nthawi zina amapeza phindu pogulitsa pamtengo wabwino pamene malondawo sakupezeka. Komabe, tikukhulupirira kuti chiopsezo chowonjezera sichikufunika ndipo, monga taonera, chingapangitse kutayika kwakukulu. Ngati chigwiritsidwa ntchito, mpanda uyenera kukhala ndi mfundo yokhazikika, yosalola kuti mpanda upitirire malire ang'onoang'ono a malonda oyembekezeredwa mpaka malonda amenewo atatsimikizika.
Kupanda kutero, ntchito zoteteza madera zidzawonongeka kwambiri makampani akafuna thandizo kwambiri. Chifukwa chake n'chakuti kuwerengera madera oteteza madera sikukwaniritsidwa pamene chiwerengero cha madera oteteza madera chikupitirira ntchito yeniyeni, zomwe zimachitika pokhapokha ngati kufunika kwa msika kukutsika, zomwe zimapangitsanso kuti mitengo itsike pang'onopang'ono. Zotsatira zake, kampaniyo idzakhala pamalo otsika ndalama ndi phindu pamene ikuyenera kulipira ndalama zina zotetezera madera.
Pomaliza, kuti apeze ndalama zothandizira kuteteza katundu wake, kuwonjezera zosowa zake pa katundu ndi kumanga fakitale yatsopano, FRD yasayina ngongole ndi JPMorgan Chase (JPM). Pansi pa njira imeneyi, FRD ikhoza kubwereka mpaka $70 miliyoni kutengera mtengo wa katundu wake wapano ndi EBITDA ndikulipira SOFR + 1.7% pa ndalama zomwe zatsala.
Pofika mu Disembala 2021, kampaniyo inali ndi ndalama zokwana $15 miliyoni zomwe zinali zitatsala pa malo opangira zinthu. Kampaniyo sinatchule za chiwongola dzanja cha SOFR chomwe imagwiritsa ntchito, koma mwachitsanzo, chiwongola dzanja cha miyezi 12 chinali 0.5% mu Disembala ndipo tsopano ndi 1.5%. Zachidziwikire, mulingo uwu wa ndalama ukadali wochepa, chifukwa kusintha kwa mfundo 100 kungapangitse kuti pakhale chiwongola dzanja chowonjezera cha $150,000. Komabe, m'miyezi ingapo ikubwerayi, kuchuluka kwa ngongole kudzafunika kuyang'aniridwa mosamala.
Tatchula kale zoopsa zina zomwe zimayambitsa ntchito za FRD, koma tikufuna kuzifotokoza momveka bwino mu gawo lina ndikukambirana zambiri.
Monga tanenera, FRD ili ndi mphamvu zogwirira ntchito, ndalama zokhazikika, m'zaka khumi zapitazi, koma sizikutanthauza kutayika kwakukulu ngakhale m'misika yoipa kwambiri. Ndi fakitale yowonjezera yomwe ikumangidwa yomwe ingawonjezere $1.5 miliyoni pachaka pakuchepa kwa mtengo, izi zisintha. Kampaniyo iyenera kupeza $1.5 miliyoni pachaka mu ndalama kupatula ndalama zosinthika. Chiwopsezochi chimakhudza ndalama zomwe amapeza, osati ndalama zomwe amapeza, chifukwa fakitaleyo ikhoza kulipidwa mokwanira chaka chino.
Tinanenanso kuti FRD ilibe ngongole iliyonse, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti palibe phindu la ndalama pakukwera kapena kutsika. Tsopano, kampaniyo yasayina ngongole yolumikizidwa ndi zinthu zake zamadzimadzi. Mzere wa ngongole umalola makampani kubwereka mpaka $75 miliyoni pa chiwongola dzanja chofanana ndi SOFR +1.7%. Popeza chiwongola dzanja cha pachaka cha SOFR pakadali pano ndi 1.25% (chowerengedwa pogwiritsa ntchito CME futures, popeza SOFR ilibe dongosolo la nthawi), FRD imalipira chiwongola dzanja cha $295,000 pa chiwongola dzanja chilichonse cha $10 miliyoni chomwe chabwerekedwa. Pamene chiwongola dzanja cha SOFR chikukwera ndi ma basis point 100 (1%) pachaka, FRD idzalipira $100,000 yowonjezera. FRD pakadali pano ili ndi ngongole ya $15 miliyoni, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti chiwongola dzanja cha pachaka cha $442,000, chomwe sichinalipo m'zaka khumi zapitazi.
Powonjezera ndalama ziwirizi pamodzi, komanso kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja ndi 1% chaka chotsala cha 2022, kampaniyo iyenera kupeza phindu lowonjezera la $2 miliyoni poyerekeza ndi momwe inalili isanafike kusintha kwaposachedwa kwa COVID. Zachidziwikire, izi zikuganizira kuti kampaniyo siyilipira ngongole zake kapena kubwereka ndalama zina.
Kenako tinatchula za chiopsezo choteteza madera, chomwe ndi chovuta kuchiyesa koma chimakhudzidwa kwambiri makampani akakhala pachiwopsezo chachikulu. Chiwopsezo chenicheni cha kampani chimadalira kwambiri kuchuluka kwa mapangano omwe amatsegulidwa nthawi iliyonse komanso momwe mitengo yachitsulo imayendera. Komabe, kutayika kosayerekezeka kwa $10 miliyoni komwe kwatsimikiziridwa chaka chino kuyenera kupangitsa kuti woyika ndalama aliyense asokonezeke. Tikupangira kuti makampani azikhazikitsa malire enieni pa ntchito zawo zoteteza madera. Ichi ndiye chiopsezo chachikulu chomwe kampaniyo ikukumana nacho pakali pano.
Ponena za kuwotcha ndalama, zambiri zomwe tili nazo kuchokera mu kotala lachitatu la 2021 (Disembala 2021) sizolondola kwenikweni. FRD ilibe ndalama zambiri, ndi $3 miliyoni zokha. Kampaniyo idayenera kulipira $27 miliyoni pazinthu zomwe idapeza, zambiri zomwe zidachokera ku malo ake atsopano ku Texas, ndipo inali ndi $15 miliyoni zomwe sizinalipire pa ngongole yake.
Komabe, FRD inawonjezeranso ndalama zake mu zinthu zomwe zili m'sitolo ndi zinthu zomwe zimayenera kubwezeredwa chaka chino pamene mitengo ya zitsulo inakwera. Pofika mu 3Q21, kampaniyo inali ndi zinthu zokwana $83 miliyoni zomwe zili m'sitolo ndi $26 miliyoni zomwe zimayenera kubwezeredwa. Pamene kampaniyo ikugulitsa zinthu zina, iyenera kupeza ndalama. Ngati kufunikira kukuchepa kwambiri kotero kuti zinthu za FRD zikuyamba kuchepa, kampaniyo ikhoza kubwereka zambiri kuchokera ku ngongole ya JPMorgan, mpaka $75 miliyoni. Zachidziwikire, izi zidzabweretsa ndalama zambiri, pamtengo wapano wa $2.2 miliyoni pachaka. Iyi ndi imodzi mwa mfundo zofunika kuziganizira pamene zotsatira zatsopano zidzawonekera nthawi ina mu Epulo.
Pomaliza, FRD ndi masheya ogulitsidwa pang'ono, omwe ali ndi magawo pafupifupi 5,000 patsiku. Masheyawa alinso ndi 3.5% ya ask/bid, yomwe imaonedwa kuti ndi yayikulu. Ichi ndi chinthu chomwe amalonda ayenera kukumbukira, koma si aliyense amene amachiona ngati chiopsezo.
M'malingaliro mwathu, zaka khumi zapitazi zikuwonetsa malo osasangalatsa kwa opanga zinthu, makamaka makampani opanga zitsulo aku US. Pankhaniyi, kuthekera kwa FRD kukweza phindu ndi ndalama zokwana $2.8 miliyoni pachaka ndi chizindikiro chabwino.
Zachidziwikire, ngakhale poganizira kuchuluka kwa mitengo ya zaka khumi zapitazi, sitingathe kulosera ndalama zomwezo za FRD chifukwa cha kusintha kwakukulu kwa ndalama zomwe zagwiritsidwa ntchito komanso ntchito zoteteza. Komabe, ngakhale poganizira kubwerera ku momwe zinthu zinalili kale, chiopsezo cha kampaniyo chimakula.