Friedman Industries (NYSE:FRD) ipurosesa ye coil inopetwa nekupisa. Kambani iyi inotenga coil kubva kumakambani makuru uye inoagadzira kuti atengeswezve kune vatengi vekupedzisira kana mabroker.
Kambani iyi yakaramba iine hungwaru hwemari nekushanda kuitira kuti isakanganiswe zvakanyanya nekudzikira kwebhizinesi. Kutaura zvazviri, makore gumi pakati pekupera kwedambudziko remari nekutanga kwedambudziko reCOVID rakanga risiri rakanaka pazvinhu zvese, asi avhareji yemari yekambani yaive $2.8 miriyoni.
Zvinhu zviri muFRD zvagara zvichibatanidzwa nemitengo yesimbi, sezvo mitengo yepamusoro yesimbi ichireva purofiti yakakwira uye kudiwa kwakanyanya kwezvinhu zveFRD. Kurasikirwa kwemitengo yesimbi kwekupedzisira mumwedzi gumi nemiviri yapfuura kwakanga kusina kusiyana.
Musiyano panguva ino ndewekuti mamiriro ehupfumi angangodaro akachinja, zvichiratidza kuti mitengo yezvinhu yakakwira paavhareji kupfuura zvayaive mumakore gumi apfuura. Pamusoro pezvo, FRD iri kuwedzera kugadzirwa kwayo nekuvaka mafekitori matsva uye yatanga kudzivirira mamwe emabhizinesi ayo, nemhedzisiro yakasiyana.
Shanduko idzi dzinogona kuratidza kuti FRD ichakwanisa kuwana mari yakawanda mumakore gumi anotevera kupfuura yayakaita kare, nokudaro, zvichitsigira mutengo wayo wemasheya pari zvino. Zvisinei, kusava nechokwadi hakuna kugadziriswa, uye tinotenda kuti masheya ane ruzivo rwuripo anodhura.
Cherechedza: Kunze kwekunge zvataurwa neimwe nzira, ruzivo rwese rwunobva mumagwaro eFRD eSEC. Gore remari reFRD rinopera musi wa31 Kurume, saka mumushumo waro we10-K, gore remari razvino rinoreva gore rekushanda rapfuura, uye mumushumo waro we10-Q, gore remari razvino rinoreva gore rekushanda razvino.
Chero ongororo yekambani inotarisa pazvinhu zvinotenderera kana zvigadzirwa zvine chekuita nazvo haigone kubvisa mamiriro ehupfumi ayo kambani inoshanda. Kazhinji, tinosarudza nzira yekubva pasi kuenda kumusoro pane kuyera kukosha, asi mumhando iyi yekambani, nzira yekubva kumusoro kuenda pasi haidzivisiki.
Tinotarisa panguva inotangira muna Chikumi 2009 kusvika munaKurume 2020. Sekuziva kwedu, nguva iyi, kunyangwe isina kufanana, yakaratidzwa nekuderera kwemitengo yezvinhu, kunyanya mitengo yemagetsi, mitengo yemubereko yakaderera, uye mitemo yekuwedzera kwemari pamwe nekubatanidzwa kwekutengeserana kwepasi rose.
Chati iri pazasi inoratidza mutengo weHRC1, chibvumirano chemuno chehot rolled coil futures icho FRD inonyanya kupa. Sezvatinoona, nguva yatakasarudza kuongorora mitengo inotangira pamadhora mazana matatu nemakumi manomwe nemashanu kusvika mazana mapfumbamwe ($900) patani. Zviri pachena kubva pachati kuti mutengo wakaitwa mushure meKurume 2020 wave wakasiyana zvikuru.
FRD ipurosesa iri pasi, zvinoreva kuti ipurosesa iri pedyo nemutengi wekupedzisira wechigadzirwa chesimbi. IFRD inotenga ma coils anoputika anopisa akawanda kubva kumagayo makuru, ayo anobva achekwa, aumbwa kana kutengeswa sezvaari kuti vatengi vekupedzisira kana mabroker vapedzisire.
Parizvino kambani iyi ine nzvimbo nhatu dzekushanda muDecatur, Alabama; Lone Star, Texas; uye Hickman, Arkansas. Mafekitori eAlabama neArkansas akatsaurirwa kucheka macoil, ukuwo fekitori yeTexas yakatsaurirwa kugadzira macoil kuita machubhu.
Kutsvaga kuri nyore kweGoogle Maps kwenzvimbo yega yega kwakaratidza kuti nzvimbo dzese nhatu dziri pedyo nemafekitori makuru emakambani anozivikanwa muindasitiri iyi. Nzvimbo iyi yeLone Star iri padyo nenzvimbo yezvigadzirwa zveUS Steel (X). Mafekitori ese ari maviri eDecatur neHickman ari padyo nenzvimbo yeNucor (NUE).
Nzvimbo inokosha pamutengo uye kushambadza, sezvo zvinhu zvichibatsira zvikuru muzvigadzirwa zvesimbi, saka kuisa zvinhu muzvikamu zvinobudirira. Zvigayo zvikuru zvingasakwanisa kugadzirisa simbi zvinogutsa zvinodiwa nevatengi, kana kuti zvingangotarisa pakuenzanisa zvikamu zvishoma zvechigadzirwa, zvichiita kuti zvigayo zvidiki zvakaita seFRD zvishande zvimwe zvese.
Sezvamunoona pachati iri pazasi, mumakore gumi apfuura, mari inowanikwa neFRD pamwe chete nepurofiti yayo yekushanda zvakafambirana nemitengo yesimbi (chati yayo yemitengo iri muchikamu chapfuura), kungofanana nedzimwe kambani dzinoshanda muzvinhu zvinotengeswa.
Chekutanga, pane nguva shoma apo maFRD anozara. Kazhinji, simba rekushandisa idambudziko kumakambani anoda midziyo yakawanda. Mari dzakagadziriswa dzinokonzerwa nezvivakwa dzinoita shanduko diki mumari inowanikwa kana purofiti yakazara ine simba guru pamari inoshandiswa.
Sezvinoratidzwa nechati iri pazasi, FRD haisi kunzvenga chokwadi ichi, uye kufamba kwemari inowanikwa kunowedzera sezvo gwaro remari richidzikira. Chinhu chakakosha nezve FRD ndechekuti hairasikirwi nemari yakawanda kana mitengo yezvigadzirwa zvayo yadzikira. Izvi zvataurwa, nepo FRD ichikanganiswa nekushandiswa kwemari, inokwanisa kugadzikana nematanho ebhizinesi akaderera.
Chinhu chechipiri chinonakidza ndechekuti avhareji yemari yekushanda yeFRD panguva iyi yaive $4.1 miriyoni. Avhareji yemari yekushanda yeFRD panguva iyi yaive $2.8 miriyoni, kana kuti 70% yemari yekushanda. Musiyano chete uripo pakati pemari yekushanda yeFRD nemari yekushanda ndeyemutero we30%. Izvi zvinoreva kuti kambani ine mari shoma yezvemari kana zvimwe zvinoshandiswa, uye kune rumwe rutivi inoderedza mari yekushandisa (munyaya iyi yemari). Izvi zvinokonzerwa nekuti FRD haina chikwereti chemari munguva iyi.
Chekupedzisira, avhareji yekudzikira kwemitengo yegore negore uye amortization hazvina kusiyana zvakanyanya nemari inoshandiswa mumari mukati menguva yakafukidzwa. Izvi zvinotipa chivimbo chekuti kambani haina kuzivisa zvisirizvo mari inoshandiswa mumari yayo, uye nekudaro inoshandisa mari inoshandiswa mukuvandudza mari inowanikwa kuburikidza nekuverenga mari.
Tinonzwisisa kuti kushandiswa kwemari nekushandisa mari zvakachengetedza FRD kwakaita kuti indasitiri yesimbi irambe iine purofiti munguva dzakaoma. Ichi chinhu chakakosha chinotinyaradza kana tichifunga nezveFRD.
Chinangwa chekuongorora uku hachisi chekufungidzira zvichaitika kuzvinhu zvisingatarisirwi zvakaita semitengo yezvinhu, mitengo yemubereko uye kutengeserana kwenyika.
Zvisinei, tinoda kutaura kuti nharaunda yatiri uye nharaunda inogona kukura mumakore gumi anotevera zvaratidza hunhu hwakasiyana zvikuru kana tichienzanisa nemamiriro ezvinhu mumakore gumi apfuura.
Mukunzwisisa kwedu, kunyange zvazvo tiri kutaura nezvezviitiko zvisati zvajeka, zvinhu zvitatu izvi zvakasiyana zvikuru.
Chekutanga, zvinoita sekuti pasi rose harisi kufambira mberi pakubatana kwekutengeserana kwenyika dzese. Izvi hazvina kunaka kuhupfumi hwese, asi zvakanaka kune vagadziri vezvinhu vasina kukanganiswa zvakanyanya nemakwikwi epasi rose. Izvi zviri pachena kuti zvinobatsira vagadziri vesimbi vekuUS, avo vanotambura nemakwikwi emitengo yakaderera, kunyanya kubva kuChina. Ehe, kudzikira kwekudiwa kwakakonzerwa nekuderera kwekutengeserana kwakakanganisawo kudiwa kwesimbi.
Chechipiri, mabhanga makuru ehupfumi akasiya mitemo yemari yekuwedzera yaakaisa mumakore gumi apfuura. Hatizive kuti mitengo yezvinhu inogona kukanganiswa sei.
Chechitatu, uye chakabatana nedzimwe mbiri, kukwira kwemitengo muhupfumi hwakabudirira kwatotanga, uye hapana kusava nechokwadi nezvekuti kucharamba kuripo here. Kuwedzera pakumanikidzwa kwekukwira kwemitengo, zvirango zvakatemerwa Russia munguva pfupi yapfuura zvakakanganisawo chinzvimbo chedhora semari yepasi rose. Zvese izvi zvakakonzera kukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu.
Zvakare, chinangwa chedu hachisi chekufanotaura mitengo yesimbi yeramangwana, asi kuratidza kuti hupfumi hwenyika hwakachinja zvakanyanya zvichienzaniswa nemamiriro ezvinhu pakati pa2009 na2020. Izvi zvinoreva kuti maFRD haagone kuongororwa nechinangwa chekudzokera kumitengo yezvinhu zvepakati nepakati uye kudiwa kwemakore gumi apfuura.
Tinotenda kuti shanduko nhatu dzakakosha zvikuru kune ramangwana reFRD, zvisinei nekuchinja kwemutengo nehuwandu hunodiwa.
Chekutanga, FRD yakavhura nzvimbo itsva yechikamu chayo chekucheka makoiri muHinton, Texas. Sekureva kwemushumo wekambani we10-Q wechikamu chechitatu chegore ra2021 (Zvita 2021), mari yese yenzvimbo iyi inosvika $21 miriyoni yakashandiswa kana kuti yakaunganidzwa ne $13 miriyoni. Kambani haisati yazivisa kuti nzvimbo iyi ichatanga kushanda riini.
Nzvimbo itsva iyi ichave neimwe yemichina mikuru yekucheka pasi rose, ichiwedzera kwete kugadzirwa chete asiwo mhando yezvigadzirwa zvinopihwa nekambani. Nzvimbo iyi iri pakambasi yeSteel Dynamics (STLD), iyo inorendwa kukambani ne$1 pagore kwemakore makumi mapfumbamwe nemapfumbamwe.
Nzvimbo itsva iyi inowedzera mafungiro akafanana neekare uye iri pedyo zvikuru nemugadziri mukuru wekugadzira zvinhu kuti agadzirise kugadzirwa kwacho kwakanyanya kuenderana nemugadziri iyeye.
Tichifunga nezvenguva yemakore gumi nemashanu yekuderera kwemutengo, nzvimbo itsva iyi ichawedzera kaviri mari yeFRD yekuderera kwemutengo kusvika pamamiriyoni matatu emadhora ($3 miriyoni). Izvi zvichave zvakaipa kana mitengo ikadzokera padanho rakaonekwa mumakore gumi apfuura.
Chechipiri, FRD yakatanga mabasa ekudzivirira kubva muna Chikumi 2020, sezvakaziviswa mumushumo wayo weFY21 10-K. Mukunzwisisa kwedu, kudzivirira kudzivirira kunounza njodzi huru yemari kumashandiro, kunoita kuti kududzirwa kwezvirevo zvemari kuve kwakaoma, uye kunoda kushanda nesimba kwekutarisira.
FRD inoshandisa hedge accounting yemabasa ayo ehedge, iyo inoibvumira kunonoka kuona purofiti nekurasikirwa pazvinobva mumari kusvika mashandiro ehedge, kana aripo, aitika. Semuenzaniso, ngatitii FRD yakatengesa chibvumirano chemari cheHRC chakagadziriswa mukati memwedzi mitanhatu nemadhora zana. Pazuva rekugadzirisa chibvumirano, mutengo wepositi imadhora makumi mashanu. Kambani yakazonyoresa $50 muzvinhu zve derivative zvinotengeswa uye $50 muzvinobva mumari isina kuwanikwa mune imwe mari yakazara. Kutengeserana chaiko kwehedge kunoitika pazuva rimwe chete nemutengo wepositi wemadhora makumi mashanu, uye OCI gain inozoshandurwa kuita mari yegore rose nekuwedzera $50 mukutengesa.
Chero bedzi kushanda kwega kwega kwekudzivirira kuchizoenderana nekushanda chaiko, zvese zvichashanda zvakanaka. Muchiitiko ichi, zvese zvinobudirira uye kurasikirwa kubva muzvinhu zvinobva mumiti zvinodzikira kana kuderera nekuda kwekubudirira uye kurasikirwa pakutengeserana chaiko. Vaverengi vanogona kudzidzira kutenga nekutengesa kudzivirira sezvo mitengo ichikwira kana kudzikira.
Matambudziko anotanga kana makambani akawedzera mari yakawanda izvo zvisingazoitike. Kana chibvumirano chekubvisa mari chikakonzera kurasikirwa, chinoendeswa mberi kusvika pakuwana mari pasina mumwe munhu anochitsigira kuti chikanzurwe. Semuenzaniso, ngatitii kambani inoronga kutengesa macoil gumi uye nekudaro inotengesa macoil gumi akagadziriswa nemari. Kuwedzera kwe20% mumutengo wepositi kunoguma nekurasikirwa kwe20% pachibvumirano chimwe nechimwe (leverage haifungidzirwe kuti zviri nyore). Kana macoil gumi anotevera akatengeswa nemutengo mumwe chete, hapana kurasikirwa. Zvisinei, kana kambani ikapedzisira yatengesa macoil mashanu chete pamutengo wepositi, inofanira kuziva kurasikirwa kwezvibvumirano zvasara.
Zvinosuwisa kuti, mumwedzi gumi nemisere chete yekushanda kwekuchengetedza zvivakwa, FRD yakaona kurasikirwa kwakanyanya kwemadhora mamiriyoni gumi (tichifunga nezvemadhora mamiriyoni manomwe emitero inowanikwa). Izvi hazvibatanidzwi mumari inowanikwa kana mutengo wezvinhu zvinotengeswa, asi zvinosanganisirwa mune zvimwe zvinowanikwa (zvisingafaniri kuvhiringidzwa nemari inowanikwa). Chero zvazvingava, zvingave chikanganiso chikuru kuziva zvakananga mumagwaro emari uye kuzvipira kwekambani kugadzirisa mutemo wayo wekuchengetedza zvivakwa. Nekuti FRD yakaita mari yakawanda gore rino uye yakarasikirwa zvishoma, FRD inongotaurwa mundima imwe chete.
Makambani anoshandisa hedhiging kuwedzera kushanda zvakanaka uye dzimwe nguva purofiti nekutengesa nemutengo uri nani kana chigadzirwa chisipo. Zvisinei, tinotenda kuti njodzi yekuwedzera haina basa uye, sezvataona, inogona kuunza kurasikirwa kukuru. Kana ikashandiswa, hedhiging activity inofanira kunge iine mutemo wekuchengetedza zvakanyanya, usingabvumidze hedhiging activity kudarika muganhu mudiki wekutengesa kusvika kutengesa ikoko kwava nechokwadi.
Zvikasadaro, mabasa ekudzivirira makambani achakanganiswa zvikuru kana makambani achida rubatsiro rwakawanda. Chikonzero ndechekuti kuverenga kwekudzivirira makambani kunokundikana kana huwandu hwemahedges hukadarika mashandiro chaiwo, izvo zvinoitika chete kana kudiwa kwemusika kwaderera, izvo zvinoitawo kuti mitengo yakaderera. Nekuda kweizvozvo, kambani ichave iri munzvimbo yekudzikira kwemari inowanikwa uye purofiti uku ichizofanira kutsiva kurasikirwa kwekudzivirira makambani.
Chekupedzisira, kuti iwane mari yekudzivirira, kuwedzera kwezvinodiwa muzvinhu zvayo uye kuvaka fekitori itsva, FRD yakasaina chikwereti neJPMorgan Chase (JPM). Pasi pechirongwa ichi, FRD inogona kukwereta kusvika kumadhora mamiriyoni makumi manomwe zvichienderana nekukosha kwezvinhu zvayo zviripo iye zvino neEBITDA uye kubhadhara SOFR + 1.7% pamari yasara.
Kubva muna Zvita 2021, kambani iyi yaive nemari yasara inosvika mamiriyoni gumi nemashanu emadhora ($15 miriyoni) panzvimbo iyi. Kambani iyi haitauri nezvemutengo weSOFR wainoshandisa, asi semuenzaniso, mutengo wemwedzi gumi nemiviri waive 0.5% muna Zvita uye ikozvino wava 1.5%. Ehe, mwero uyu wekubhadhara mari uchiri mudiki, sezvo shanduko ye100 basis point yaizongoguma nemari yekuwedzera yemubereko yemadhora zviuru zana nemakumi mashanu ($150,000). Zvisinei, mumwedzi mishoma inotevera, mwero wechikwereti uchafanirwa kutariswa zvakanyanya.
Tatotaura nezvedzimwe njodzi dziri shure kwekushanda kweFRD, asi taida kuzviisa pachena muchikamu chakasiyana tokurukura zvimwe.
Sezvatataura, FRD ine mari inoshandiswa, mitengo yakatarwa, mumakore gumi apfuura, asi izvi hazvirevi kurasikirwa kukuru kunyangwe mumisika yakaipa. Neimwe fekitori iri kuvakwa iyo inogona kuwedzera $1.5 miriyoni pagore mukuderera kwemitengo, izvo zvichachinja. Kambani ichafanirwa kuwana $1.5 miriyoni pagore mumari inowana kubva pamitengo inochinja-chinja. Njodzi iyi inokanganisa mari inowanikwa mu accounting, kwete mari inowanikwa, sezvo fekitori iyi ingangobhadharwa zvizere gore rino.
Takataurawo kuti FRD haina chikwereti, zvinoreva kuti hapana mari iri kubhadharwa pakukura kana kudzikira. Iye zvino, kambani iyi yasaina chibvumirano chechikwereti chakabatana nemidziyo yayo yemagetsi. Mutsetse wechikwereti unobvumidza makambani kukwereta kusvika kumadhora $75 miriyoni pamutengo wechikwereti wakaenzana neSOFR +1.7%. Sezvo mutengo wegore negore weSOFR panguva ino uri 1.25% (wakaverengerwa uchishandisa CME futures, sezvo SOFR isati yave nehurongwa hwenguva), FRD inobhadhara $295,000 mumubereko pamadhora gumi ega ega akakweretwa. Sezvo mutengo weSOFR uchikwira ne100 basis points (1%) pagore, FRD ichabhadhara imwe $100,000. FRD parizvino ine chikwereti chemadhora $15 miriyoni, izvo zvinoreva kuti mubereko wegore negore wemadhora $442,000, uyo waisavapo mukuverenga kwemakore gumi apfuura.
Kana tikasanganisa mari mbiri idzi pamwe chete, uye kuwedzera kwe1% muzana mugore ra2022, kambani iyi yaizofanira kuwana imwe purofiti yemadhora mamiriyoni maviri ekushanda kana tichienzanisa nezvayaive isati yatanga shanduko dzeCOVID. Ehe, izvi zviri kutariswa kuti kambani iyi haibhadhare zvikwereti zvayo kana kukwereta imwe mari.
Uye takabva tataura nezvenjodzi yekuvharira, iyo yakaoma kuyera asi inokanganiswa zvikuru kana makambani ari panjodzi huru. Njodzi chaiyo yekambani inoenderana zvikuru nekuti mangani makondirakiti ari kuvhurwa chero nguva uye kuti mitengo yesimbi inofamba sei. Zvisinei, kurasikirwa kusingaenzaniswi kwemamiriyoni gumi emadhora kwakasimbiswa gore rino kunofanira kutyisidzira chero mupi wemari. Tinokurudzira kuti makambani aise miganhu chaiyo yemitemo pamabasa avo ekuvharira. Iyi ndiyo njodzi huru iri kutarisana nekambani izvozvi.
Nezvekutsva kwemari, ruzivo rwatiinarwo kubva muchikamu chechitatu chegore ra2021 (Zvita 2021) haruna kunaka zvakanyanya. FRD haina mari yakawanda, ine mamiriyoni matatu emadhora chete. Kambani iyi yaifanira kubhadhara mamiriyoni makumi maviri nemanomwe emadhora ekuAmerica, mazhinji acho aibva kunzvimbo yayo itsva muTexas, uye yaive nemamiriyoni gumi nemashanu emadhora ekuAmerica pachikwereti chayo chayakabhadhara.
Zvisinei, FRD yakawedzerawo mari yayo muzvinhu zviri mudura rezvinhu uye zvinobhadharwa mugore rose sezvo mitengo yesimbi yaikwira. Kubva muna 3Q21, kambani iyi yaive nerekodhi yemadhora mamiriyoni makumi masere nematatu muzvinhu zviri mudura rezvinhu uye mamiriyoni makumi maviri nematanhatu emadhora muzvinhu zviri mudura rezvinhu. Sezvo kambani ichitengesa zvimwe zvinhu, inofanira kuwana mari. Kana kudiwa kukadzikira zvakanyanya zvekuti zvinhu zviri mudura rezvinhu zveFRD zvinotanga kupera simba, kambani inogona kukwereta zvakawanda kubva kuchikwereti cheJPMorgan, kusvika kumamiriyoni makumi manomwe nemashanu emadhora. Ehe, izvi zvichakonzera mari yakawanda, pamutengo wepari zvino wemadhora mamiriyoni maviri nemaviri pagore. Ichi chimwe chezvinhu zvakakosha zvekuongorora kana mhedzisiro mitsva ichibuda muna Kubvumbi.
Chekupedzisira, FRD imasheya anotengeswa zvishoma, ane avhareji yehuwandu hwemasheya angangoita zviuru zvishanu pazuva. Masheya aya anewo ask/bid spread ye3.5%, iyo inoonekwa seyakakwira. Izvo zvinhu zvinofanirwa kurangarirwa nevanoisa mari, asi havasi vese vanoona sengozi.
Mukuona kwedu, makore gumi apfuura anoratidza mamiriro ezvinhu asina kunaka kune vagadziri vezvinhu, kunyanya indasitiri yesimbi yeUS. Muchiitiko ichi, kugona kweFRD kuwana purofiti neavhareji yemari yegore negore yemadhora mamiriyoni maviri nemasere chiratidzo chakanaka.
Ehe, kunyangwe tichifunga nezvemitengo yemakore gumi apfuura, hatigone kufanotaura mari yakafanana yeFRD nekuda kwekuchinja kukuru mukudyara mari uye mashandiro ekudzivirira. Izvi zvakadaro, kunyangwe tichifunga nezvekudzokera kumamiriro ezvinhu ekare, njodzi yekambani inova yakakura.