Intengo yensimbi ibonakala yehla ngemva kokukhuphuka kwentengo ngoMashi kulandela ukuhlasela kweRussia e-Ukraine. betoon/iStock/Getty Images
Imakethe yensimbi yabuyela ngokushesha emazingeni angaphambi kwempi e-Ukraine. Umbuzo oyinhloko manje awukona ukuthi amanani azokwehla, kodwa ngokushesha kangakanani futhi lapho phansi kungaba khona.
Uma sibheka inkulumo emakethe, abanye bayangabaza ukuthi amanani azokwehla noma angaphansi kuka-$1,000 ngethani, okumayelana nezinga ngemva kokuhlasela okuphelele kwamasosha aseRussia.
“Ngikhathazeke kakhulu ngokuthi uzoma kuphi?
Inhloko yesibili yesikhungo senkonzo ivumile. “Ngiyakuzonda ukukhuluma ngamanani aphansi ngoba ngine-inventory futhi ngifuna amanani aphakeme,” usho kanje. "Kodwa ngicabanga ukuthi sibuyela ngokushesha endleleni ngaphambi kokuhlasela kukaPutin."
Ngokusho kwethuluzi lethu lentengo, ithemba lentengo yekhoyili egoqiwe eshisayo engu-$1,000/t (HRC) phakathi no-April ibonakala ingenakwenzeka lapho amanani ayesesondele ku-$1,500/t. Futhi, khumbula ukuthi ngo-September 2021, izintengo zafinyelela cishe ku-$1,955 ngethani, kodwa ukukhuphukela kokuphezulu kakhulu ngo-September odlule kuyisinyathelo esikhulu sokwenyuka kusukela ekukhuphukeni kwentengo okungakaze kubonwe esikubone ngo-March 2022. Inqubo ende, lapho amanani ekhoyili egingqika ashisayo enyuka ngo-$435/t kuya ku-$31. isibhakabhaka.
Bengilokhu ngibhala ngensimbi nezinsimbi kusukela ngo-2007. Idatha ye-SMU ibuyela emuva ku-2007. Ngokufanayo nalokho esakubona ngo-March. Lokhu ukukhuphuka okukhulu kwezintengo zensimbi kule minyaka engu-15 edlule, futhi ngokunokwenzeka okwake kwenzeka.
Kodwa manje akunzima ukucabanga amanani ekhoyili ashisiwe ngaphansi noma ngaphansi kwe-$1,000/ton. Kwengezwa isiqukathi esisha. Izintengo zensimbi ezilahliwe zehlile ezinyangeni ezedlule. Manje kunovalo olukhulayo lokuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali - kanye nezinga eliphezulu lenzalo yokulwa nakho - kungase kubangele ukwehla komnotho uwonke.
Uma uletha okokusebenza manje obuku-ode enyangeni edlule, lapho amanani entengo akhuphuke kakhulu, ukwazi ukuthi kungani lokhu kuguquguquka kwenzeka kuyinduduzo embi.
"Besinomkhawulo omncane ekushiseni okushisayo kanye ne-main ehloniphekile ekugoqeni okubandayo. Manje silahlekelwa imali ngokugoqa okushisayo futhi sinemali encane yokugoqa okubandayo," kusho isikhulu sesikhungo sezinsizakalo sisanda kutshela i-Steel Businesses. Buyekeza.”
Umfanekiso 1: Izikhathi ezimfushane zokuhola zeshidi lensimbi zivumela izigayo ukuthi zilungiselelwe ukuxoxisana ngamanani aphansi. (Izintengo ze-HRC ziboniswa kumabha aluhlaza kanye nezinsuku zokulethwa kumabha ampunga.)
Uma kubhekwa ukuphawula okunjalo, mhlawumbe akumangazi ukuthi okutholwe yi-SMU kwakamuva kuwukungathembeki esikubonile kusukela kuqale impi. Isikhathi sokukhishwa kwe-HRC sincishisiwe (bona Umfanekiso 1). (Ungakha lokhu namanye amagrafu afanayo usebenzisa ithuluzi lethu lentengo elisebenzisanayo. Kufanele ube yilungu le-SMU. Ngena ngemvume bese uvakashela: www.steelmarketupdate.com/dynamic-pricing-graph/interactive-pricing-tool-members.)
Eziqhathanisweni eziningi zomlando, isikhathi sokuhola se-HRC esingamaviki angu-4 sisezingeni. Kodwa ngenkathi izikhathi zokulethwa zibuyela kokujwayelekile, amanani asephezulu kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa namazinga adlule. Isibonelo, uma ubheka emuva ku-Agasti 2019, ngaphambi kokuba ubhubhane luhlanekezele imakethe, izikhathi zokulethwa bezicishe zifane nezamanje, kodwa i-HRC ibingu-$585 ithani ngalinye.
Izimboni ezengeziwe zizimisele ukuxoxisana ngamanani aphansi ngenxa yesikhathi esifushane sokulethwa. Abaphendulile basitshele ukuthi cishe u-90% wezitshalo zasekhaya zikulungele ukucabangela ukuthi kungenzeka yini ukwehlisa amanani emikhiqizo egoqiwe ukuheha ama-oda amasha. Isimo sishintshe kakhulu kusukela ngoMashi, lapho cishe zonke izimboni ziphikelela ekunyuseni amanani (bheka uMdwebo 2).
Akwenzeki endaweni engenalutho. Inani elikhulayo lezikhungo zesevisi nabakhiqizi basitshela ukuthi babheke ukunciphisa i-inventory, ithrendi eye yanda emasontweni asanda kwedlula (bona Umfanekiso 3).
Akuzona izimboni kuphela ezehlisa amanani. Okufanayo kuya ezikhungweni zesevisi. Lokhu okunye ukuhlehla okubukhali kwenkambiso kaMashi-April, lapho izikhungo zezinsizakalo ezifana nezimboni zenyusa amanani entengo ngamandla.
Imibiko efanayo iyabonakala kwezinye izindawo. Kuphinde kwabikwa ukuthi bebeseceleni. Bayanda abantu abangenathemba ngamathemba abo ekusasa. Kodwa uwutholile umqondo.
Asisekho emakethe yomthengisi ebesikuyo cishe ngoMashi no-April. Esikhundleni salokho, sabuyela emakethe yomthengi ekuqaleni konyaka, lapho impi yaphakamisa khona ukukhathazeka okwesikhashana mayelana nokutholakala kwezinto ezibalulekile zokusetshenziswa njengensimbi yengulube.
Imiphumela yethu yakamuva yocwaningo ibonisa ukuthi abantu bayaqhubeka nokulindela ukwehla kwezintengo, okungenani esikhathini esifushane (bona Ishadi 4). Bazokwazi yini ukululama ngekota yesine?
Okokuqala, imakethe yebhere: Angithandi ukukhuluma ngehlobo lika-2008. Angicabangi ukuthi ukuqhathanisa naleso sikhathi kufanele kuthathwe kalula, njengoba kwenzeka ngezinye izikhathi. Kodwa bekungaba iphutha uma ngingazi ukuthi abanye ababambiqhaza bemakethe bakhathazeke ngokufana okuningi phakathi kukaJuni 2008 noJuni 2022.
Abanye bakhumbula isitshalo, esaqinisekisa ukuthi konke kuhamba ngohlelo. Lokho kuyisidingo esihle, njengoba kunjalo nokusalela emuva ezimakethe ezehlukene abazihlinzekayo kuze kube yilapho lezo kusilela emuva zinyamalala cishe ngobusuku obubodwa. Bezwa izimpendulo zabaphathi bemboni yensimbi bonke abajwayelene nenkulumo ka-2008.
Umfanekiso 2. Izigayo zensimbi zigcizelela ekukhuphukeni kwamanani ensimbi ngoMashi. Kusukela ngoJuni, bebelokhu beguquguquka kakhulu ezingxoxweni zabo mayelana namanani ensimbi.
Angizimisele ukugxila ngokugcwele ekufananeni kuka-2008. Izintengo e-Asia zibonakala zizinza, futhi izipesheli zokungenisa insimbi ezishisayo aziqhudelani kakhulu uma kubhekwa izinga lokwehla kwentengo yasekhaya. Kunegebe elikhulu phakathi kwamanani avela kwamanye amazwe kanye nasekhaya ensimbi egoqelwe ngamakhaza nenamekwe. Kodwa lapho, njengoba sikuqonda, igebe liyancipha ngokushesha.
“Ukube ubungumthengi, ubungathi: “Ima, kungani manje ngithenga izinto ezithengwayo ngaphandle (HRC)? Izintengo zasekhaya zizofinyelela ku-$50 per cent. Angiqiniseki ukuthi uma befika ku-$50 bazoyeka. . Ngakho-ke, iyiphi intengo enhle yokungenisa?” omunye umphathi wefekthri wangitshela.
Khumbula ukuthi i-US ijwayele ukuboshelwa emakethe yomhlaba kaninginingi. Ehlobo lika-2020, sehle ngaphansi kwamanani entengo ase-Asia ensimbi egoqwe ngokushisayo. Khumbula u-$440/t? Kwathi eminyakeni emibili eyalandela ayizange iye ndawo.
Ngikhumbula futhi amazwi acashunwa umhlaziyi omkhulu wemboni yensimbi ake angitshela: “Lapho wonke umuntu ephonsa ithawula embonini yensimbi, ngokuvamile liyabuya.”
I-SMU Steel Summit, ingqungquthela yaminyaka yonke yensimbi enkulu kunazo zonke eNyakatho Melika, izoba ngo-Agasti 22-24 e-Georgia International Convention Center e-Atlanta. Ngizoba khona. Silindele cishe abenzi bezinqumo abayi-1,200 embonini yamapuleti namapuleti ukuthi nabo bathamele. Amanye amahhotela aseduze athengiswa aphela.
Njengoba ngishilo ngenyanga edlule, uma ungaqiniseki, cabanga ngakho ngale ndlela: Ungakwazi ukuhlela umhlangano weklayenti izikhathi eziyisithupha, noma ungahlangana nawo kanye e-Atlanta. I-logistics inzima ukudlula. Ungathatha ithilamu ukusuka esikhumulweni sezindiza uye endaweni yenkomfa namahhotela aseduze. Ungakwazi ukungena nokuphuma ngaphandle kokukhathazeka ngokuqasha imoto noma ukuzulazula phakathi kwethrafikhi.
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