Intengo yensimbi ibonakala yehla ngemuva kokwenyuka kwentengo ngoMashi ngemuva kokuhlasela kweRussia e-Ukraine. betoon/iStock/Getty Images
Imakethe yensimbi yabuyela ngokushesha emazingeni angaphambi kwempi e-Ukraine. Umbuzo oyinhloko manje awukona ukuthi amanani azokwehla yini, kodwa ukuthi azoba ngokushesha kangakanani nokuthi azoba kuphi phansi.
Uma sibheka inkulumo emakethe, abanye bayangabaza ukuthi amanani azokwehla abe ngaphansi noma afinyelele ku-$1,000 ngethani, okuyizinga elicishe libe sezingeni ngemuva kokuhlasela ngokuphelele kwamasosha aseRussia.
“Ngikhathazeke kakhulu ngokuthi uzoma kuphi? Angicabangi ukuthi uzoma kuze kube yilapho – u-Abracadabra! – impi ingeke iqale. Ifektri ithi, “Kulungile, sizokwehlisa ijubane,” kusho umphathi wesikhungo sezinsizakalo.
Inhloko yesibili yesikhungo sezinsizakalo ivumile. “Ngiyazonda ukukhuluma ngamanani aphansi ngoba nginempahla engiyithengile futhi ngifuna amanani aphezulu,” kusho yena. “Kodwa ngicabanga ukuthi sisheshe sibuyele endleleni ngaphambi kokuhlasela kukaPutin.”
Ngokusho kwethuluzi lethu lamanani, amathuba entengo ye-hot rolled coil (HRC) engu-$1,000/t maphakathi no-Ephreli abonakala engenakwenzeka lapho amanani ayeseduze no-$1,500/t. Futhi, khumbula ukuthi ngoSepthemba 2021, amanani afinyelele cishe ku-$1,955 ngethani, kodwa ukwenyuka kwamanani aphezulu kunawo wonke ngoSepthemba odlule kuyisinyathelo esikhulu kusukela ekukhuphukeni kwentengo okungakaze kubonwe esikubonile ngoMashi 2022. Inqubo ende, lapho amanani e-hot-rolled coil akhuphuke ngo-$435/t aya ku-$31.
Bengilokhu ngibhala ngensimbi nezinsimbi kusukela ngo-2007. Idatha ye-SMU ibuyela emuva ku-2007. Kufana nalokho esikubonile ngoMashi. Lokhu kungukukhuphuka okukhulu kwentengo yensimbi eminyakeni eyi-15 edlule, futhi mhlawumbe nanini ngaphambili.
Kodwa manje akunzima ukucabanga ngamanani e-hot rolled coil angaphansi noma angaphansi kuka-$1,000/ton. Kufakwe isitsha esisha. Amanani ensimbi eqoshiwe ehlile ezinyangeni zamuva nje. Manje kukhona ukwesaba okwandayo kokuthi ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo - kanye nenzalo ephezulu yokulwa nakho - kungaholela ekuwohlokeni komnotho wonkana.
Uma uletha izinto ozi-ode ngenyanga edlule, lapho amanani aphansi enyuke kakhulu, khona-ke ukwazi ukuthi kungani lokhu kushintshashintsha kwenzeka kuyinduduzo ebuhlungu.
“Sasinomkhawulo omncane ekuqhumeni okushisayo kanye nomkhawulo omuhle ekuqhumeni okubandayo kanye nokumboza. Manje silahlekelwa yimali ekuqhumeni okushisayo futhi asinayo imali encane ekuqhumeni okubandayo kanye nokumboza,” kusho umphathi wesikhungo sezinsizakalo muva nje etshela i-Steel Businesses. Isibuyekezo.”
Umfanekiso 1: Izikhathi ezimfushane zokulethwa kwensimbi zivumela imishini ukuthi ilungele ukuxoxisana ngamanani aphansi. (Amanani e-HRC aboniswa ngemigoqo eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka kanye nezinsuku zokulethwa ngemigoqo empunga.)
Uma sibheka imibono enjalo, mhlawumbe akumangazi ukuthi okutholakele kwakamuva kwe-SMU kuyizinto ezingathembisi kakhulu esizibonile selokhu kwaqala impi. Isikhathi sokuqalisa se-HRC sincishisiwe (bheka uMfanekiso 1). (Ungadala leli grafu namanye afanayo usebenzisa ithuluzi lethu lentengo elisebenzisanayo. Kumelwe ube yilungu le-SMU. Ngena ngemvume bese uvakashela: www.steelmarketupdate.com/dynamic-pricing-graph/interactive-pricing-tool-members.)
Eziqhathanisweni eziningi zomlando, isikhathi sokuhola se-HRC esingamaviki ama-4 sijwayelekile. Kodwa yize izikhathi zokulethwa sezibuyele esimeni esijwayelekile, amanani asephezulu kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa nezindinganiso zangaphambilini. Isibonelo, uma ubheka emuva ku-Agasti 2019, ngaphambi kokuba ubhubhane luphazamise imakethe, izikhathi zokulethwa zazicishe zifane nezamanje, kodwa i-HRC yayingu-$585 ngethani.
Amafektri amaningi azimisele ukuxoxisana ngamanani aphansi ngenxa yezikhathi zokulethwa ezimfushane. Abaphendulile basitshele ukuthi cishe ama-90% ezitshalo zasekhaya akulungele ukucabangela amathuba okwehlisa amanani emikhiqizo egoqiwe ukuze kudonswe ama-oda amasha. Isimo sishintshe kakhulu kusukela ngoMashi, lapho cishe zonke izimboni ziphikelela ekukhuphuleni amanani (bheka uMfanekiso 2).
Akwenzeki ngesikhala. Inani elikhulayo lezikhungo zesevisi nabakhiqizi lisitshela ukuthi lifuna ukunciphisa isitokwe, okuwumkhuba oye washesha emasontweni amuva nje (bheka uMfanekiso 3).
Akuzona izimboni kuphela ezinciphisa amanani. Kunjalo nangezikhungo zezinsizakalo. Lokhu kungenye indlela ebukhali yokushintshashintsha kusuka kumkhuba kaMashi-Ephreli, lapho izikhungo zezinsizakalo ezifana nezimboni ziphakamisa amanani ngamandla.
Imibiko efanayo iyabonakala nakwezinye izindawo. Kubikwe nokuthi bebeseceleni. Abantu abaningi baphelelwa yithemba ngamathemba abo esikhathi esizayo. Kodwa wena uwutholile umqondo.
Asisekho emakethe yomthengisi esasikuyo cishe ngoMashi nango-Ephreli. Kunalokho, sabuyela emakethe yomthengi ekuqaleni konyaka, lapho impi yaphakamisa khona ukukhathazeka okwesikhashana mayelana nokutholakala kwezinto zokusetshenziswa ezibalulekile njengensimbi yengulube.
Imiphumela yethu yakamuva yocwaningo ikhombisa ukuthi abantu bayaqhubeka nokulindela ukuthi amanani ehle, okungenani esikhathini esifushane (bheka iShadi 4). Ingabe bazokwazi ukululama kwikota yesine?
Okokuqala, imakethe yamabhere: Angithandi ukukhuluma ngehlobo lika-2008. Angicabangi ukuthi ukuqhathaniswa naleso sikhathi kufanele kuthathwe kalula, njengoba kwenzeka ngezinye izikhathi. Kodwa kungaba ukunganaki uma ngingavumi ukuthi abanye abahlanganyeli bemakethe babekhathazekile ngokufana okukhulu phakathi kukaJuni 2008 noJuni 2022.
Abanye bakhumbula lesi sitshalo, esasiqinisekisa ukuthi konke kuhamba kahle. Lokho kuyisidingo esihle, njengoba kunjalo nangokusalela emuva ezimakethe ezahlukene abazisebenzelayo kuze kube yilapho lokho kusalela emuva kunyamalala cishe ngobusuku obubodwa. Bezwa izimpendulo zabaphathi bemboni yensimbi abajwayelene kakhulu nenkulumo-ze ka-2008.
Isithombe 2. Izimboni zensimbi zigcizelela ukwenyuka kwentengo yensimbi ngoMashi. Kusukela ngoJuni, bezilokhu ziguquguquka kakhulu ezingxoxweni zazo mayelana nentengo yensimbi.
Angikulungele ukugxila ngokugcwele ekufaneni kuka-2008. Amanani e-Asia abonakala ezinzile, futhi okunikezwayo kokungenisa insimbi egoqekile eshisayo akuncintisani kakhulu uma kubhekwa izinga lokwehla kwentengo yasekhaya. Kukhona igebe elikhulu phakathi kwamanani angenisiwe namanani asekhaya ensimbi egoqekile ebandayo negcotshwe ngendwangu. Kodwa lapho, njengoba sikuqonda, igebe liyancipha ngokushesha.
“Ukube ubungumthengi, ubungathi: “Linda, kungani manje ngithenga izinto ezingeniswayo (i-HRC)? Amanani asekhaya azofinyelela ku-$50%. Angiqiniseki ukuthi uma efika ku-$50 azoyeka. . Ngakho-ke, iyini intengo enhle yokungenisa impahla?” kusho omunye umphathi wefektri kimi.
Khumbula ukuthi i-US ivame ukuboshelwa emakethe yomhlaba wonke kaninginingi. Ehlobo lika-2020, sehle ngaphansi kwamanani ase-Asia ensimbi egoqwe ngokushisa. Uyakhumbula u-$440/t? Kwabe sekuthi eminyakeni emibili eyalandela ayihambanga ndawo.
Ngikhumbula futhi isisho esashiwo umhlaziyi omkhulu wemboni yensimbi owake wangitshela sona: “Uma wonke umuntu ephoqeleka embonini yensimbi, ngokuvamile kuyabuya.”
I-SMU Steel Summit, ingqungquthela enkulu kunazo zonke yensimbi yaminyaka yonke eNyakatho Melika, izobanjelwa kusukela mhla zingama-22 kuya ku-24 kuNcwaba eGeorgia International Convention Center e-Atlanta. Ngizobe ngilapho. Silindele ukuthi abenzi bezinqumo ababalelwa ku-1,200 embonini yamapuleti namapuleti nabo babekhona. Amanye amahhotela aseduze asethengisiwe.
Njengoba ngishilo ngenyanga edlule, uma unqikaza, cabanga ngale ndlela: Ungahlela umhlangano weklayenti izikhathi eziyisithupha, noma ungahlangana nabo kanye e-Atlanta. Ukuthutha kunzima ukukunqoba. Ungathatha i-tram usuka esikhumulweni sezindiza uye endaweni yomhlangano nasemahhotela aseduze. Ungangena uphume ngaphandle kokukhathazeka ngokuqasha imoto noma ukuhamba phakathi kwethrafikhi.
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I-FABRICATOR ingumagazini ohamba phambili wokukhiqiza nokwenza insimbi eNyakatho Melika. Lo magazini ushicilela izindaba, izihloko zobuchwepheshe kanye nezindaba zempumelelo ezivumela abakhiqizi ukwenza umsebenzi wabo ngempumelelo enkulu. I-FABRICATOR ibilokhu ikhona embonini kusukela ngo-1970.
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