Amaxabiso entsimbi abonakala ehla emva kokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngoMatshi kulandela ukuhlasela kweRussia eUkraine. betoon/iStock/Getty Imifanekiso
Imarike yensimbi yabuyela ngokukhawuleza kumanqanaba angaphambi kwemfazwe e-Ukraine. Umbuzo oyintloko ngoku awukho ukuba amaxabiso aya kuwela, kodwa ngokukhawuleza kangakanani kwaye apho iphantsi ingaba khona.
Ukuqwalasela intetho kwiimarike, abanye bayathandabuza ukuba amaxabiso aya kuwela okanye angaphantsi kwe-1,000 yeetoni zeetoni, malunga nenqanaba emva kokuhlaselwa ngokupheleleyo kwemikhosi yaseRashiya.
“Ndixhalabele kakhulu ukuba uza kuma phi?
Intloko yesibini yeziko lenkonzo yavuma. “Ndiyakucaphukela ukuthetha ngamaxabiso aphantsi kuba ndine-inventri kwaye ndifuna amaxabiso aphezulu,” utshilo. "Kodwa ndicinga ukuba sibuyela ngokukhawuleza endleleni ngaphambi kokuba uPutin ahlasele."
Ngokutsho kwesixhobo sethu sexabiso, ithemba le-$ 1,000 / t yexabiso le-coil eshushu (HRC) phakathi kuka-Aprili ibonakala ingenakwenzeka xa amaxabiso asondele kwi-1,500 / t. Kwakhona, khumbula ukuba ngoSeptemba 2021, amaxabiso afikelela phantse kwi-1,955 yeedola ngeetoni nganye, kodwa ukunyuka ukuya kwixesha eliphakamileyo likaSeptemba odlulileyo linyathelo elikhulu ukusuka kwi-spike yexabiso elingazange libonwe ngaphambili esilibonile ngo-Matshi 2022. Inkqubo ende, xa amaxabiso e-coil ashushu anyuka nge-$ 435 / t ukuya kwi-$ 31. isibhakabhaka.
Ndibhala malunga nentsimbi kunye neentsimbi ukususela ngo-2007. Idatha ye-SMU ibuyela kwi-2007. Ngokufana noko sikubonileyo ngoMatshi. Oku kunyuka okukhulu kwamaxabiso entsimbi kule minyaka ili-15 idlulileyo, kwaye kunokwenzeka nanini na.
Kodwa ngoku akukho nzima ukuba nomfanekiso-ngqondweni wamaxabiso ekhoyili eshushu okanye ngaphantsi kwe-1,000 yeedola/toni. Isikhongozeli esitsha siyongezwa. Amaxabiso esinyithi esilahliweyo awile kwiinyanga zakutshanje. Ngoku kukho uloyiko olukhulayo lokuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso - kunye nezinga lenzala ephezulu ukulwa nako - kunokukhokelela ekudodobaleni koqoqosho ngokubanzi.
Ukuba uzisa imathiriyeli ngoku ubuyi-odole kwinyanga ephelileyo, xa amaxabiso enyuke kakhulu, ukwazi ke ukuba kutheni oku kuguquguquka kusenzeka yintuthuzelo embi.
"Besinomda omncinci wokuqengqeleka okushushu kunye nomda ofanelekileyo ekuqengqeni nasekugqumeni okubandayo. Ngoku silahlekelwa yimali ngokurola okushushu kwaye sinemali encinci yokuqengqeleka okubandayo kunye nokugquma, "umphathi weziko lenkonzo kutshanje uxelele iSteel Businesses. Hlaziya.”
Umzobo 1: Amaxesha amafutshane okukhokelela kwi-sheet metal avumela ii-mills ukuba zilungele ukuthethathethana ngamaxabiso aphantsi. (Amaxabiso e-HRC aboniswe kwiibha eziluhlaza kunye nemihla yokuhanjiswa kwiibha ezingwevu.)
Ukunika izimvo ezinjalo, mhlawumbi ayimangalisi into yokuba iziphumo zamva nje ze-SMU zezona zingenathemba kakhulu esizibonileyo ukusukela ekuqaleni kwemfazwe. Ixesha lokwenziwa kwe-HRC liyancitshiswa (jonga uMfanekiso 1). (Unokwenza oku kunye nezinye iigrafu ezifanayo usebenzisa isixhobo sethu samaxabiso esisebenzisanayo. Kufuneka ube lilungu le-SMU. Ngena uze undwendwele: www.steelmarketupdate.com/dynamic-pricing-graph/interactive-pricing-tool-members.)
Kuninzi lothelekiso lwembali, ixesha lokukhokela kwe-HRC malunga neeveki ezi-4 lisemgangathweni. Kodwa ngelixa amaxesha okuhanjiswa abuyele kwisiqhelo, amaxabiso asephezulu kakhulu xa kuthelekiswa nemigangatho yangaphambili. Umzekelo, ukuba ujonga umva ngo-Agasti ka-2019, ngaphambi kokuba ubhubhane ugqwethe imakethi, amaxesha okuhambisa ayephantse afane nangoku, kodwa i-HRC yayingama-585 eedola ngeetoni nganye.
Iifektri ezininzi zikulungele ukuthetha-thethana ngamaxabiso aphantsi ngenxa yamaxesha amafutshane okuhambisa. Abaphenduli basixelela ukuba phantse i-90% yezityalo zasekhaya zikulungele ukuqwalasela amathuba okuthoba amaxabiso eemveliso eziqengqelekayo ukutsala iiodolo ezintsha. Imeko iye yatshintsha kakhulu ukususela ngoMatshi, xa phantse zonke iifektri zagxininisa ekunyuseni amaxabiso (jonga umfanekiso 2).
Ayenzeki kwindawo engenanto. Inani elikhulayo lamaziko eenkonzo kunye nabavelisi basixelela ukuba bajonge ukunciphisa uluhlu lwempahla, umkhwa oye wakhawuleza kwiiveki zakutshanje (jonga uMfanekiso 3).
Ayizomizi-mveliso kuphela ehlisa amaxabiso. Kukwanjalo nakumaziko eenkonzo. Olu lolunye ujiko olubukhali ukusuka kuMatshi ukuya kuEpreli, xa amaziko eenkonzo afana neefektri enyuse amaxabiso ngamandla.
Iingxelo ezifanayo ziyabonakala kwezinye iindawo. Kuphinde kwaxelwa ukuba bebesecaleni. Abantu abangakumbi nangakumbi abanalo ithemba ngekamva labo. Kodwa ufumene umbono.
Asisekho kwimakethi yomthengisi ebesikuyo phantse ngoMatshi nangoAprili. Endaweni yoko, sabuyela kwimarike yomthengi ekuqaleni konyaka, apho imfazwe yaphakamisa inkxalabo okwexeshana malunga nokufumaneka kwezixhobo eziphambili ezifana nentsimbi yehagu.
Iziphumo zethu zophando zamva nje zibonisa ukuba abantu bayaqhubeka belindele ukuba amaxabiso ehle, ubuncinci kwixesha elifutshane (jonga iTshati yesi-4). Ngaba baya kukwazi ukuchacha kwikota yesine?
Okokuqala, imarike yeebhere: Andithandi ukuthetha ngehlobo lika-2008. Andiqondi ukuba ukuthelekiswa kwelo xesha kufuneka kuthathwe ngokulula, njengokuba ngamanye amaxesha. Kodwa ibiya kuba yimpazamo ukuba andivumanga ukuba abanye abathathi-nxaxheba bemarike banenkxalabo yokufana kakhulu phakathi kukaJuni ka-2008 noJuni ka-2022.
Abanye bakhumbula isityalo, esiqinisekisa ukuba yonke into ilungile. Elo libango elihle, njengoko kunjalo ngokusilela kwiimarike ezahlukeneyo abazinikezelayo de ezo zinto zingekenziwa zinyamalale phantse ngobusuku. Beva iimpendulo zabaphathi beshishini lentsimbi bonke baqhelene nentetho ye-2008.
Umzobo 2. Iintsimbi zensimbi zigxininisa ekunyuseni kwamaxabiso ensimbi ngoMatshi. Ukususela ngoJuni, baye baguquguquka ngakumbi kwiingxoxo zabo malunga namaxabiso ensimbi.
Andikulungele ukugxila ngokupheleleyo kwizinto ezifanayo ze-2008. Amaxabiso e-Asia abonakala ezinzile, kwaye i-hot-rolled-rolled import steel offer ayikhuphisani kakhulu xa kunikwa izinga lokuhla kwexabiso lasekhaya. Kukho umsantsa omkhulu phakathi kwamaxabiso angeniswa kumazwe angaphandle nasekhaya entsimbi eqengqelekisiweyo negqunywe ngentsimbi. Kodwa apho, njengoko siyiqonda, umsantsa uyancipha ngokukhawuleza.
Ukuba ubungumthengi, ubuya kuthi: “Yima, kutheni ngoku ndithenga izinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle (HRC)? Amaxabiso asekhaya aya kufikelela kwi-$50 ekhulwini ngalinye. Andiqinisekanga xa bebetha i-50 yeedola bayakuyeka. . Ke, lithini ixabiso elilungileyo lokungenisa elizweni?” omnye umphathi wefektri wandixelela.
Khumbula ukuba i-US ithande ukubotshelelwa kwimarike yehlabathi kwakhona kwaye kwakhona. Ngehlobo lika-2020, sawela ngaphantsi kwamaxabiso aseAsia entsimbi eshushu eqengqelekayo. Khumbula i-$ 440 / t? Emva koko kwiminyaka emibini elandelayo ayizange iye ndawo.
Ndikhumbula kwakhona isicatshulwa somhlalutyi ophezulu we-steel wakha wathi kum: "Xa wonke umntu ephosa itawuli kwishishini lentsimbi, idla ngokubuya."
I-SMU Steel Summit, ingqungquthela enkulu yentsimbi yonyaka eMntla Melika, iya kubanjwa ngo-Agasti 22-24 kwiZiko leNgqungquthela lamazwe ngamazwe laseGeorgia e-Atlanta. Ndiza kubalapho. Silindele ukuba malunga ne-1,200 labenzi bezigqibo kwishishini leepleyiti kunye neepleyiti nabo babekho. Ezinye iihotele ezikufuphi zithengisiwe.
Njengoko benditshilo kwinyanga ephelileyo, ukuba awunazigqibo, yicinge ngolu hlobo: Ungacwangcisa intlanganiso yabathengi amaxesha amathandathu, okanye ungadibana nabo kube kanye eAtlanta. Amalungiselelo anzima ukubetha. Ungathatha i-tram ukusuka kwisikhululo seenqwelomoya ukuya kwindawo yenkomfa kunye neehotele ezikufutshane. Ungangena kwaye uphume ngaphandle kokukhathazeka ngokuqesha imoto okanye ukuhamba ngeendlela.
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I-FABRICATOR yeyona ndawo iphambili kuMntla Melika kwimveliso yentsimbi kunye nokwenza imagazini. Eli phephancwadi lipapasha iindaba, amanqaku ezobugcisa kunye namabali okuphumelela enza ukuba abavelisi benze umsebenzi wabo ngokufanelekileyo. I-FABRICATOR ikwishishini ukusukela ngo-1970.
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