Amaxabiso entsimbi abonakala ehla emva kokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngoMatshi emva kokuhlasela kweRashiya i-Ukraine. betoon/iStock/Getty Images
Imakethi yentsimbi ibuyele ngokukhawuleza kwinqanaba langaphambi kwemfazwe e-Ukraine. Umbuzo ophambili ngoku asikuko ukuba amaxabiso aza kwehla na, kodwa kukuba angakanani ngokukhawuleza kwaye apho ukwehla kungaba khona.
Xa sijonga intetho ekhoyo kwimarike, abanye bayathandabuza ukuba amaxabiso aza kwehla aye kwi-$1,000 okanye angaphantsi kwetoni, nto leyo elingana nenqanaba emva kokuhlaselwa ngokupheleleyo kwemikhosi yaseRashiya.
“Ndixhalabile ngakumbi malunga nokuba uza kuma phi? Andicingi ukuba uza kuma kude kube – Abracadabra! – imfazwe ayizukuqala. umzi-mveliso uthi, “Kulungile, siza kuyeka,” utshilo umphathi weziko leenkonzo.
Intloko yesibini yeziko leenkonzo yavuma. “Ndiyakuthiya ukuthetha ngamaxabiso aphantsi kuba ndinempahla endiyithengileyo kwaye ndifuna amaxabiso aphezulu,” utshilo. “Kodwa ndicinga ukuba sikhawuleza sibuyele endleleni ngaphambi kokuhlasela kukaPutin.”
Ngokwesixhobo sethu samaxabiso, ithemba lexabiso le-hot rolled coil (HRC) eliyi-$1,000/t phakathi ku-Epreli libonakala lingenakwenzeka xa amaxabiso ayesondele kwi-$1,500/t. Kwakhona, khumbula ukuba ngoSeptemba 2021, amaxabiso afikelele phantse kwi-$1,955 ngetoni, kodwa ukunyuka ukuya kwinqanaba eliphezulu kakhulu ngoSeptemba ophelileyo linyathelo elikhulu ukusuka ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso okungazange kubonwe ngaphambili esakubona ngoMatshi 2022. Inkqubo ende, xa amaxabiso e-hot-rolled coil anyuke nge-$435/t ukuya kwi-$31.
Bendisoloko ndibhala ngentsimbi kunye neentsimbi ukusukela ngo-2007. Idatha ye-SMU ibuyela umva ngo-2007. Ifana nento esiyibonileyo ngoMatshi. Olu lolona nyuko lukhulu lwamaxabiso entsimbi kwiminyaka eli-15 edlulileyo, kwaye mhlawumbi nanini na ngaphambili.
Kodwa ngoku akunzima ukucinga amaxabiso e-hot rolled coil angaphantsi okanye angaphantsi kwe-$1,000/ton. Kongezwa ikhonteyina entsha. Amaxabiso esinyithi esilahliweyo ehlile kwiinyanga zakutshanje. Ngoku kukho uloyiko olukhulayo lokuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso - kunye namazinga enzala aphezulu okulwa nayo - kunokukhokelela ekuwohlokeni koqoqosho luphela.
Ukuba uzisa izinto ozi-odole kwinyanga ephelileyo, xa amaxabiso aphantsi enyuke kakhulu, ngoko ke ukwazi isizathu sokuba kubekho olu tshintsho kuyintuthuzelo ebuhlungu.
“Besinomyinge omncinci kwi-hot rolling kunye nomyinge ofanelekileyo kwi-cold rolling kunye ne-coat cold. Ngoku silahlekelwa yimali kwi-hot rolling kwaye asinayo imali eninzi kwi-cold rolling kunye ne-coat coat,” umphathi weziko leenkonzo uxelele iSteel Businesses kutshanje. Uhlaziyo.”
Umfanekiso 1: Amaxesha amafutshane okufumana i-sheet metal avumela ii-mills ukuba zilungele ukuxoxa ngamaxabiso aphantsi. (Amaxabiso e-HRC aboniswe kwiibha eziluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka kwaye imihla yokuhanjiswa kwiibha ezingwevu.)
Ngenxa yezimvo ezinjalo, mhlawumbi akumangalisi ukuba iziphumo zamva nje ze-SMU zezona zimbi kakhulu esizibonileyo ukusukela ekuqaleni kwemfazwe. Ixesha lokuphumeza i-HRC linciphile (jonga uMfanekiso 1). (Ungadala le grafu kunye nezinye ezifanayo usebenzisa isixhobo sethu sokuxabisa esisebenzisanayo. Kufuneka ube lilungu le-SMU. Ngena kwaye undwendwele: www.steelmarketupdate.com/dynamic-pricing-graph/interactive-pricing-tool-members.)
Kwiimeko ezininzi zokuthelekiswa kwembali, ixesha lokuhanjiswa kweHRC elimalunga neeveki ezi-4 liqhelekile. Kodwa nangona amaxesha okuhanjiswa ebuyele kwisiqhelo, amaxabiso asephezulu kakhulu xa ethelekiswa nemigangatho yangaphambili. Umzekelo, ukuba ujonga emva ku-Agasti 2019, ngaphambi kokuba ubhubhane uphazamise imakethi, amaxesha okuhanjiswa ayefana nalangoku, kodwa iHRC yayiyi-$585 ngetoni.
Iifektri ezininzi zizimisele ukuxoxisana ngamaxabiso aphantsi ngenxa yexesha elifutshane lokuhambisa. Abaphenduli basixelele ukuba phantse i-90% yezityalo zasekhaya zikulungele ukuqwalasela amathuba okunciphisa amaxabiso eemveliso eziqengqelweyo ukuze zitsale ii-odolo ezintsha. Imeko itshintshe kakhulu ukusukela ngoMatshi, xa phantse zonke iifektri zigxininisa ekunyuseni amaxabiso (jonga uMfanekiso 2).
Akwenzeki ngaphandle kwento. Inani elikhulayo lamaziko eenkonzo kunye nabavelisi basixelela ukuba bajonge ukunciphisa uluhlu lwezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo, umkhwa oye wanda kakhulu kwiiveki zakutshanje (jonga uMfanekiso 3).
Ayizizo iifektri zodwa ezinciphisa amaxabiso. Kunjalo nangamaziko eenkonzo. Olu lolunye utshintsho olukhulu oluvela kwindlela kaMatshi-Aprili, xa amaziko eenkonzo ezifana neefektri enyusa amaxabiso ngamandla.
Iingxelo ezifanayo ziyabonakala nakwezinye iindawo. Kukwaxelwe nokuba bebengekho ecaleni. Abantu abaninzi baphelelwa lithemba ngamathuba abo ekamva. Kodwa wena ufumene ingcamango.
Asisekho kwimarike yomthengisi esasikuyo phantse yonke inyanga kaMatshi no-Epreli. Endaweni yoko, sibuyele kwimarike yomthengi ekuqaleni konyaka, apho imfazwe yaphakamisa inkxalabo okwethutyana malunga nokufumaneka kwezinto ezibalulekileyo ezifana nentsimbi yehagu.
Iziphumo zethu zamva nje zophando zibonisa ukuba abantu bayaqhubeka nokulindela ukuba amaxabiso ehle, ubuncinane kwixesha elifutshane (jonga iTshathi 4). Ngaba baya kukwazi ukubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo kwikota yesine?
Okokuqala, imakethi yeebhere: Andithandi ukuthetha ngehlobo lika-2008. Andicingi ukuba ukuthelekiswa nelo xesha kufanele kuthathwe lula, njengoko kusenzeka ngamanye amaxesha. Kodwa bekuya kuba yinto engafanelekanga ukuba andivumi ukuba abanye abathathi-nxaxheba kwimakethi babexhalabile ngokufana kakhulu phakathi kukaJuni 2008 noJuni 2022.
Abanye bakhumbula umzi-mveliso, owaqinisekisa ukuba yonke into ilungile. Yimfuno entle leyo, njengoko kunjalo nangokusilela kwiimarike ezahlukeneyo abazisebenzelayo de loo ntsalela inyamalale phantse ngobusuku obunye. Bave iimpendulo zabaphathi beshishini lesinyithi abaqhelene kakhulu nentetho ka-2008.
Umfanekiso 2. Iifektri zentsimbi zigxininisa ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso entsimbi ngoMatshi. Ukususela ngoJuni, bezisoloko ziguquguquka kwiingxoxo zazo malunga namaxabiso entsimbi.
Andikulungelanga ukugxila ngokupheleleyo kwizinto ezifanayo zowama-2008. Amaxabiso e-Asia abonakala ezinzile, kwaye izibonelelo zokungenisa intsimbi eshushu azikhuphisani kakhulu ngenxa yesantya sokuhla kwamaxabiso asekhaya. Kukho umsantsa omkhulu phakathi kwamaxabiso angeniswayo nawasekhaya entsimbi ebandayo negqunyiweyo. Kodwa apho, njengoko sikuqonda, umsantsa uncipha ngokukhawuleza.
“Ukuba ubungumthengi, ubungathi: “Yima, kutheni ngoku ndithenga izinto ezingeniswayo (i-HRC)? Amaxabiso asekhaya aya kufikelela kwi-$50 ekhulwini. Andiqinisekanga ukuba xa zifikelela kwi-$50 ziya kuyeka. . Ngoko ke, lithini ixabiso elihle lokungenisa izinto kwamanye amazwe?” utshilo omnye umphathi wefektri.
Khumbula ukuba i-US idla ngokubotshelelwa kwimarike yehlabathi rhoqo. Ehlotyeni lowama-2020, sehle saya ngaphantsi kwamaxabiso ase-Asia entsimbi eshushu. Uyakhumbula i-$440/t? Emva koko kwiminyaka emibini elandelayo ayizange iye ndawo.
Ndikhumbula nesicatshulwa esathethwa ngumhlalutyi ophezulu weshishini lentsimbi: “Xa wonke umntu ephoswa lithemba kushishino lwentsimbi, kudla ngokubuya.”
I-SMU Steel Summit, eyona ngqungquthela inkulu yonyaka yentsimbi eMntla Melika, iza kubanjwa nge-22-24 ka-Agasti kwiZiko leeNgqungquthela zaMazwe ngaMazwe laseGeorgia e-Atlanta. Ndiza kube ndilapho. Silindele ukuba abantu abamalunga ne-1,200 abenza izigqibo kushishino lweepleyiti neepleyiti nabo babekhona. Ezinye iihotele ezikufutshane zithengisiwe.
Njengoko benditshilo kwinyanga ephelileyo, ukuba awuqinisekanga, cinga ngale ndlela: Ungacwangcisa intlanganiso yomthengi izihlandlo ezithandathu, okanye ungadibana naye kube kanye e-Atlanta. Iinkqubo zothutho zinzima ukoyisa. Ungathabatha itram ukusuka kwisikhululo seenqwelo-moya ukuya kwindawo yenkomfa nakwiihotele ezikufutshane. Ungangena uphume ngaphandle kokukhathazeka ngokuqesha imoto okanye ukuhamba phakathi kwezithuthi.
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