Mitengo yesimbi inoita kunge iri kudzikira mushure mekukwira kwemitengo munaKurume mushure mekupindwa kweRussia muUkraine. betoon/iStock/Getty Images
Musika wesimbi wakakurumidza kudzokera padanho rekutanga kwehondo muUkraine. Mubvunzo mukuru hausi wekuti mitengo ichadzikira here, asi kuti mitengo yacho ichadzikira nekukurumidza uye kuti ichadzikira sei.
Tichitarisa zviri kutaurwa pamusika, vamwe vanokahadzika kuti mitengo ichadzikira kusvika kana pasi pe$1,000 patani, izvo zviri pamusoro pehuwandu hwakafanana mushure mekupindwa nechisimba kwemauto eRussia.
"Ndiri kunetseka zvakanyanya nezvekuti achamira papi? Handifungi kuti achamira kusvika - Abracadabra! - hondo yarega kutanga. fekitari inoti, "Zvakanaka, tichanonoka," maneja wenzvimbo yebasa akadaro.
Mukuru wechipiri wenzvimbo iyi akabvumirana nazvo. "Ndinovenga kutaura nezvemitengo yakaderera nekuti ndine zvinhu zviri mudura uye ndinoda mitengo yakakwira," akadaro. "Asi ndinofunga kuti tiri kukurumidza kudzokera munzira Putin asati apinda."
Zvichienderana nekushandisa kwedu mitengo, mukana wekuti mutengo wehot rolled coil (HRC) we$1,000/t pakati paKubvumbi haugoneke apo mitengo yaive pedyo ne$1,500/t. Zvakare, yeuka kuti munaGunyana 2021, mitengo yakasvika pamadhora angangoita $1,955 patani, asi kukwira kusvika pakakwirira kupfuura kare munaGunyana wadarika idanho guru kubva pakukwirira kwemitengo kusati kwamboitika kwatakaona munaKurume 2022. Maitiro akareba, apo mitengo yehot-rolled coil yakawedzera ne$435/t kusvika pa$31.
Ndanga ndichinyora nezvesimbi nesimbi kubvira muna 2007. Ruzivo rweSMU runodzokera shure muna 2007. Zvakafanana nezvatakaona muna Kurume. Uku ndiko kuwedzera kukuru kwemitengo yesimbi mumakore gumi nemashanu apfuura, uye pamwe zvisati zvamboitika.
Asi ikozvino hazvisi zvakaoma kufungidzira mitengo yemafuta anoputika ari pasi pe$1,000 patani. Mudziyo mutsva wawedzerwa. Mitengo yesimbi dzakasara yakaderera mumwedzi yapfuura. Iye zvino pane kutya kuri kukura kwekuti inflation - uye mitengo yemubereko yakakwira yekurwisa izvi - zvinogona kukonzera kudzikira kwehupfumi hwese.
Kana uri kuuya nezvinhu zvawakatenga mwedzi wapfuura, apo mitengo yakaderera yakwira zvakanyanya, saka kuziva chikonzero nei kuchinja uku kuchiitika kunyaradza kunorwadza.
"Taiva nemari shoma mukupisa uye mari yakanaka mukupisa uye kuputira. Iye zvino tiri kurasikirwa nemari mukupisa uye hatina mari yakawanda mukupisa uye kuputira," mukuru wenzvimbo yebasa akaudza Steel Businesses nguva pfupi yadarika.
Mufananidzo 1: Nguva pfupi yekushanda kwesimbi yesimbi inobvumira kuti zvigayo zvigadzirire kutaurirana nemitengo yakaderera. (Mitengo yeHRC inoratidzwa mumabhawa ebhuruu uye mazuva ekutumira mumabhawa egrey.)
Zvichienderana nemashoko akadaro, hazvishamisi kuti zvakawanikwa neSMU zvichangoburwa ndizvo zvisina tariro zvatakamboona kubva pakutanga kwehondo. Nguva yekuita HRC yaderedzwa (ona Mufananidzo 1). (Unogona kugadzira iyi nemamwe magirafu akafanana uchishandisa chishandiso chedu chemitengo chinopindirana. Unofanira kunge uri nhengo yeSMU. Pinda mukati uye shanyira: www.steelmarketupdate.com/dynamic-pricing-graph/interactive-pricing-tool-members.)
Mukuenzanisa kwakawanda kwenhoroondo, nguva yekuendesa HRC yemavhiki mana ndiyo yakajairika. Asi kunyange hazvo nguva yekutumira yadzokera kune yakajairika, mitengo ichiri yakakwira zvikuru kana tichienzanisa neyakare. Semuenzaniso, kana ukatarira shure muna Nyamavhuvhu 2019, denda risati rakanganisa musika, nguva yekutumira yaive yakafanana neyazvino, asi HRC yaive $585 patani.
Mafekitori akawanda ari kuda kutaurirana mitengo yakaderera nekuda kwenguva pfupi yekutumira. Vakapindura vakatiudza kuti inoda kusvika 90% yemafekitori emumba akagadzirira kufunga nezve mukana wekudzikisa mitengo yezvigadzirwa zvakaputirwa kuti zvikwezve maodha matsva. Mamiriro ezvinhu akachinja zvakanyanya kubvira munaKurume, apo mafekitori anenge ese akaramba achisimbisa kukwidza mitengo (ona Mufananidzo 2).
Hazviitiki pasina chinhu. Huwandu huri kuramba huchikwira hwenzvimbo dzebasa nevagadziri vari kutiudza kuti vari kutsvaga kuderedza zvinhu zviri muzvitoro, maitiro akawedzera mumavhiki apfuura (ona Mufananidzo 3).
Haasi mafekitori chete ari kuderedza mitengo. Izvi zvinoshandawo kune nzvimbo dzebasa. Uku kuchinjika kukuru kubva pane zvaiitika munaKurume-Kubvumbi, apo nzvimbo dzebasa dzakadai semafekitori dzakakwidza mitengo zvakanyanya.
Mishumo yakafanana iri pachena kune dzimwe nzvimbo. Zvakataurwawo kuti vakanga vasiri padivi. Vanhu vakawanda vari kuramba vachifunga nezveramangwana ravo. Asi wanzwisisa pfungwa yacho.
Hatisisiri mumusika wevatengesi sezvataive tiri mukati menguva yakawanda yaKurume naKubvumbi. Asi, takadzokera kumusika wevatengi pakutanga kwegore, uko hondo yakambomutsa kushushikana kwenguva pfupi nezvekuwanikwa kwezvinhu zvakakosha zvakaita sesimbi yenguruve.
Zvakabuda muongororo yedu yazvino zvinoratidza kuti vanhu vanoramba vachitarisira kuti mitengo ichadzikira, mukati menguva pfupi (ona Chati 4). Vachakwanisa kudzoreredza here muchikamu chechina chegore?
Kutanga, musika wemabheya: Handifarire kutaura nezvezhizha ra2008. Handifungi kuti kuenzanisa nenguva iyoyo kunofanira kutorwa sezvisina basa, sezvazvinoitwa dzimwe nguva. Asi zvaizova zvisina kunaka dai ndisina kubvuma kuti vamwe vatori vechikamu mumusika vainetseka nezvekufanana kwakanyanya pakati paChikumi 2008 naChikumi 2022.
Vamwe vakayeuka fekitori, iyo yakavavimbisa kuti zvese zvaive zvakanaka. Izvo zvinodiwa zvakanaka, pamwe chete nekusaririra mumisika yakasiyana-siyana yavanoshandira kusvika kusaririra ikoko kwanyangarika nehusiku humwe chete. Vakanzwa mhinduro dzevakuru veindasitiri yesimbi avo vaiziva zvakanyanya nezvekutaura kwa2008.
Mufananidzo 2. Vagadziri vesimbi vanosimbirira pakuwedzera kwemitengo yesimbi munaKurume. Kubva munaChikumi, vanga vachichinja-chinja muhurukuro dzavo pamusoro pemitengo yesimbi.
Handisati ndagadzirira kunyatsotarisa kufanana kwazvakaita mugore ra2008. Mitengo muAsia inoita seiri kugadzikana, uye zvinotengeswa kunze kwesimbi inopinzwa nemoto hazvikwikwidzane zvakanyanya tichifunga nezvekudzikira kwemitengo yemuno. Pane musiyano mukuru pakati pemitengo inopinzwa nesimbi inopinzwa nemoto yemuno yesimbi inopinzwa nemoto inoputirwa nechando. Asi ipapo, sezvatinonzwisisa, musiyano uri kudzikira nekukurumidza.
"Dai waiva mutengi, waizoti: "Mira, sei ndiri kutenga zvinhu zvinopinzwa kunze kwenyika (HRC)? Mitengo yemuno ichasvika pamadhora makumi mashanu muzana. Handizive kana zvasvika pamadhora makumi mashanu zvichamira. . Saka, mutengo wakanaka wekutenga zvinhu zvinopinzwa kunze kwenyika chii?" mumwe maneja wefekitori akandiudza.
Yeukai kuti US inowanzobatanidzwa nemusika wepasi rose kakawanda. Muzhizha ra2020, takadzikira mitengo yesimbi inopfurwa nemoto pasi pemitengo yeAsia. Munoyeuka here $440/t? Zvadaro kwemakore maviri akatevera haina kuenda chero kupi.
Ndinoyeukawo mashoko andakaudzwa nemumwe muongorori mukuru weindasitiri yesimbi: "Kana munhu wese akarega basa rake muindasitiri yesimbi, zvinowanzodzoka."
Musangano weSMU Steel, musangano mukuru wepagore wesimbi muNorth America, uchaitwa kubva muna Nyamavhuvhu 22 kusvika 24 kuGeorgia International Convention Center muAtlanta. Ndichavapo. Tinotarisira kuti vanhu vanosvika 1,200 vanoita sarudzo muindasitiri yemaplate nemaplate vapindewo. Mamwe mahotera ari pedyo apera.
Sezvandakataura mwedzi wapera, kana usina chokwadi, funga nezvazvo nenzira iyi: Unogona kuronga musangano wevatengi katanhatu, kana kuti unogona kusangana navo kamwe chete muAtlanta. Zvinhu zvinofamba nemota zvakaoma kukunda. Unogona kutora chitima kubva kunhandare yendege kuenda kunzvimbo yemusangano nemahotera ari pedyo. Unogona kupinda nekubuda usinganetseki nezvekurenda mota kana kufamba nemota.
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