Mitengo yazitsulo ikuwoneka kuti ikutsika pambuyo poti mitengo yakwera mu Marichi kutsatira kuwukira kwa Russia ku Ukraine. betoon/iStock/Getty Images
Msika wazitsulo mwamsanga unabwerera ku miyeso isanayambe nkhondo ku Ukraine. Funso lalikulu tsopano siloti mitengo idzagwa, koma mofulumira komanso pamene pansi pangakhale.
Poyang'ana nkhani yomwe ili pamsika, ena amakayikira kuti mitengo idzatsika kapena pansi pa $ 1,000 pa tani, yomwe ili pafupi ndi msinkhu pambuyo pa kuukira kwathunthu kwa asilikali a Russia.
"Ndikuda nkhawa kwambiri ndi komwe angayime?" sindikuganiza kuti asiya mpaka - Abracadabra! - nkhondo sidzayamba. fakitale imati, "Chabwino, tichepetse," adatero woyang'anira malo ogwira ntchito.
Wachiwiri mutu wa pakati utumiki anavomera. "Ndimadana ndi kuyankhula za mitengo yotsika chifukwa ndili ndi zinthu ndipo ndikufuna mitengo yokwera," adatero. "Koma ndikuganiza kuti tikubwerera mwachangu asanayambe kuwukira a Putin."
Malinga ndi chida chathu chamitengo, chiyembekezo cha mtengo wa $ 1,000 / t hot rolled coil (HRC) pakati pa mwezi wa April chikuwoneka ngati chosatheka pamene mitengo inali pafupi ndi $ 1,500 / t. Komanso, kumbukirani kuti mu September 2021, mitengo inafika pafupifupi $ 1,955 pa tani, koma kukwera kwa nthawi yonse ya September watha ndi sitepe yaikulu kuchokera kumtengo wamtengo wapatali womwe tidawonapo mu March 2022. Njira yayitali, pamene mitengo ya coil yotentha idakwera ndi $ 435 / t mpaka $ 31. kumwamba.
Ndakhala ndikulemba zazitsulo ndi zitsulo kuyambira 2007. Deta ya SMU imabwerera ku 2007. Mofanana ndi zomwe tinaziwona mu March. Uku ndiye kukwera kwakukulu kwamitengo yachitsulo m'zaka 15 zapitazi, ndipo mwinanso konse.
Koma tsopano sizovuta kulingalira mitengo ya coil yotentha kapena pansi pa $1,000/tani. Chotengera chatsopano chawonjezeredwa. Mitengo yazitsulo zachitsulo yatsika m'miyezi yaposachedwa. Panopa pali mantha omwe akukula kuti kukwera kwa mitengo - ndi chiwongoladzanja chokwera kuti kulimbana nacho - kungayambitse kugwa kwachuma chonse.
Ngati mukubweretsa zinthu zomwe mudaitanitsa mwezi wapitawo, pamene mitengo yamitengo yakwera kwambiri, ndiye kudziwa chifukwa chake kusinthasinthaku kumachitika ndi chitonthozo chodetsa nkhawa.
"Tinali ndi malire ang'onoang'ono pakugudubuza kotentha komanso malire abwino pakugudubuza kozizira ndi zokutira. Tsopano tikutaya ndalama pakugudubuza kotentha ndipo tili ndi ndalama zochepa pakugudubuza kozizira ndi zokutira, "mkulu wa malo ochitira chithandizo posachedwapa adauza Steel Businesses. Update.”
Chithunzi 1: Nthawi zazifupi zotsogola zachitsulo zachitsulo zimalola kuti mphero zikonzekere kukambirana zamitengo yotsika. (Mitengo ya HRC ikuwonetsedwa m'mipiringidzo yabuluu ndi masiku otumizira m'mipiringidzo yotuwa.)
Chifukwa cha ndemanga zotere, mwina sizosadabwitsa kuti zomwe SMU zapeza posachedwa ndizopanda chiyembekezo zomwe taziwona kuyambira chiyambi cha nkhondo. Nthawi yopha HRC yachepetsedwa (onani Chithunzi 1). (Mutha kupanga zithunzizi ndi zina zofananira pogwiritsa ntchito chida chathu cholumikizira mitengo. Muyenera kukhala membala wa SMU. Lowani ndikupita ku: www.steelmarketupdate.com/dynamic-pricing-graph/interactive-pricing-tool-members.)
M'mafananidwe ambiri akale, nthawi yotsogolera ya HRC ya masabata a 4 ndi ofanana. Koma ngakhale kuti nthawi zobweretsera zabwerera mwakale, mitengo ikadali yokwera kwambiri poyerekeza ndi miyezo yakale. Mwachitsanzo, mukayang'ana mmbuyo mu Ogasiti 2019, mliri usanasokoneze msika, nthawi zobweretsera zinali zofanana ndi pano, koma HRC inali $585 pa toni.
Mafakitole ambiri ali okonzeka kukambirana zamitengo yotsika chifukwa cha nthawi yochepa yobweretsera. Ofunsidwa adatiuza kuti pafupifupi 90% yazomera zapakhomo ndi okonzeka kuganizira za kuthekera kotsitsa mitengo yazinthu zogubuduza kuti akope madongosolo atsopano. Zinthu zasintha kwambiri kuyambira Marichi, pomwe pafupifupi mafakitale onse adalimbikira kukweza mitengo (onani Chithunzi 2).
Sizichitika popanda kanthu. Chiwerengero chowonjezeka cha malo ogwirira ntchito ndi opanga akutiuza kuti akuyang'ana kuchepetsa kusungirako zinthu, zomwe zapita patsogolo m'masabata aposachedwa (onani Chithunzi 3).
Si mafakitale okha amene akuchepetsa mitengo. Zomwezo zimapitanso kumalo operekera chithandizo. Uku ndikusintha kwina koopsa kuchokera mu Marichi-Epulo, pomwe malo ochitira chithandizo monga mafakitale adakweza mitengo mwankhanza.
Malipoti ofanana ndi amenewa akuonekeranso kwina. Adanenedwanso kuti anali kumbali. Anthu ochulukirachulukira akukhala opanda chiyembekezo ponena za mtsogolo mwawo. Koma inu muli nalo lingaliro.
Sitilinso mumsika wogulitsa womwe tinali nawo nthawi zambiri mu Marichi ndi Epulo. M'malo mwake, tinabwerera kumsika wa ogula kumayambiriro kwa chaka, kumene nkhondoyi inayambitsa nkhawa kwakanthawi za kupezeka kwa zinthu zofunika kwambiri monga chitsulo cha nkhumba.
Zotsatira za kafukufuku wathu waposachedwa zikuwonetsa kuti anthu akupitilizabe kuyembekezera kuti mitengo itsika, osachepera pakanthawi kochepa (onani Tchati 4). Kodi adzatha kuchira mu gawo lachinayi?
Choyamba, msika wa chimbalangondo: Sindimakonda kulankhula za chilimwe cha 2008. Sindikuganiza kuti kufananitsa ndi nthawi imeneyo kuyenera kutengedwa mopepuka, monga momwe zimakhalira nthawi zina. Koma zingakhale zophophonya ndikapanda kuvomereza kuti ena omwe akutenga nawo gawo pamsika akuda nkhawa ndi kufanana kwakukulu pakati pa June 2008 ndi June 2022.
Ena anakumbukira chomeracho, chomwe chinatsimikizira kuti zonse zili bwino. Ndiko kufunikira kwabwino, monganso kutsalira m'misika yosiyanasiyana yomwe amatumiza mpaka zotsalirazo zitatha pafupifupi usiku umodzi. Iwo adamva mayankho a ogwira ntchito m'makampani azitsulo omwe amawadziwa bwino kwambiri zonena za 2008.
Chithunzi 2. Mphero zachitsulo zimaumirira kukwera kwamitengo yachitsulo mu March. Kuyambira mwezi wa June, akhala akusinthasintha pazokambirana zawo za mitengo yazitsulo.
Sindinakonzekere kuyang'ana mokwanira zofanana za 2008. Mitengo ku Asia ikuwoneka kuti ikukhazikika, ndipo zopereka zazitsulo zotentha zotentha sizili zopikisana kwambiri chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa mitengo yapakhomo. Pali kusiyana kwakukulu pakati pa mitengo yochokera kunja ndi yapakhomo yazitsulo zozizira ndi zokutira. Koma pamenepo, monga tikudziwira, kusiyana kukucheperachepera.
“Mukadakhala wogula, mukanati: “Dikirani, n’chifukwa chiyani tsopano ndikugula zinthu zochokera kunja (HRC)? Mitengo yapakhomo ifika $50 peresenti. Sindikudziwa kuti akagunda $ 50 asiya. . Ndiye mtengo wabwino wobwereketsa ndi wotani?" woyang'anira fakitale wina anandiuza.
Kumbukirani kuti US imakonda kumangika pamsika wapadziko lonse mobwerezabwereza. M'chilimwe cha 2020, tinagwera pansi pamitengo yaku Asia yazitsulo zotentha. Mukukumbukira $440/t? Ndiye kwa zaka ziwiri zotsatira sizinapite kulikonse.
Ndimakumbukiranso mawu omwe katswiri wina wofufuza zachitsulo adandiuza kuti: "Aliyense akaponya thaulo mumakampani azitsulo, nthawi zambiri amabwerera."
SMU Steel Summit, msonkhano waukulu kwambiri wapachaka wachitsulo ku North America, udzachitika Ogasiti 22-24 ku Georgia International Convention Center ku Atlanta. Ndidzakhalako. Tikuyembekeza kuti opanga zisankho pafupifupi 1,200 pamakampani opanga mbale ndi mbale nawonso adzapezekapo. Mahotela ena apafupi akugulitsidwa.
Monga ndidanenera mwezi watha, ngati mulibe chochita, ganizirani izi: Mutha kukonza msonkhano wa kasitomala kasanu ndi kamodzi, kapena mutha kukumana nawo kamodzi ku Atlanta. The logistics ndizovuta kugonjetsa. Mutha kutenga tramu kuchokera ku eyapoti kupita kumalo amsonkhano ndi mahotela apafupi. Mutha kulowa ndi kutuluka popanda kudandaula za kubwereka galimoto kapena kuyendetsa magalimoto.
To learn more about SMU or sign up for a free trial subscription, please send an email to info@steelmarketupdate.com.
FABRICATOR ndi magazini otsogola ku North America opanga zitsulo komanso kupanga zitsulo. Magaziniyi imasindikiza nkhani, zolemba zamakono ndi nkhani zopambana zomwe zimathandiza opanga kupanga ntchito yawo bwino. FABRICATOR wakhala akugulitsa kuyambira 1970.
Tsopano ndi mwayi wofikira ku The FABRICATOR digito edition, mwayi wosavuta kuzinthu zofunikira zamakampani.
Magazini ya digito ya The Tube & Pipe Journal tsopano ikupezeka bwino, ikupereka mwayi wosavuta kuzinthu zofunikira zamakampani.
Pezani mwayi wonse wa digito ku STAMPING Journal, yomwe ili ndi ukadaulo waposachedwa, machitidwe abwino kwambiri komanso nkhani zamakampani pamsika wopondaponda zitsulo.
Tsopano pokhala ndi mwayi wokwanira wa digito ku The Fabricator en Español, muli ndi mwayi wosavuta kuzinthu zamalonda zamtengo wapatali.