Mitengo ya zitsulo ikuoneka kuti ikutsika pambuyo poti mitengo yakwera mu Marichi pambuyo poti Russia yalanda Ukraine. betoon/iStock/Getty Images
Msika wa zitsulo unabwerera msanga ku Ukraine nkhondo isanayambe. Funso lalikulu tsopano si ngati mitengo idzatsika, koma momwe idzatsikire mofulumira komanso komwe ingakhale pansi.
Poganizira zomwe zikukambidwa pamsika, ena akukayikira kuti mitengo idzatsika kufika pa $1,000 pa tani, zomwe zili ngati kuchuluka kwa asilikali aku Russia ataukira kwambiri.
"Ndikuda nkhawa kwambiri ndi komwe adzayima? Sindikuganiza kuti adzayima mpaka - Abracadabra! - nkhondo isayambe. fakitale ikuti, "Chabwino, tichepetsa liwiro," adatero manejala wa malo operekera chithandizo.
Mtsogoleri wachiwiri wa malo operekera chithandizo anavomereza. "Ndimadana ndi kulankhula za mitengo yotsika chifukwa ndili ndi zinthu zomwe zili m'sitolo ndipo ndikufuna mitengo yokwera," adatero. "Koma ndikuganiza kuti tikubwerera mwachangu munjira yoyenera Putin asanalowe m'malo mwake."
Malinga ndi chida chathu chamitengo, chiyembekezo cha mtengo wa $1,000/t hot rolled coil (HRC) pakati pa Epulo sichikuwoneka ngati chachilendo pamene mitengo inali pafupi ndi $1,500/t. Komanso, kumbukirani kuti mu Seputembala 2021, mitengo inafika pafupifupi $1,955 pa tani, koma kukwera kufika pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri mu Seputembala watha ndi sitepe yayikulu kuchokera ku kukwera kwamitengo komwe sikunachitikepo komwe tidakuwona mu Marichi 2022. Njira yayitali, pamene mitengo ya hot-rolled coil inakwera ndi $435/t kufika pa $31.
Ndakhala ndikulemba za chitsulo ndi zitsulo kuyambira mu 2007. Deta ya SMU inayamba mu 2007. Mofanana ndi zomwe tinaona mu Marichi. Uku ndiye kukwera kwakukulu kwa mitengo yachitsulo m'zaka 15 zapitazi, ndipo mwina sikunachitikepo.
Koma tsopano n'zosavuta kuganiza kuti mitengo ya hot rolled coil ndi $1,000/tani kapena pansi pake. Chidebe chatsopano chawonjezeredwa. Mitengo ya zitsulo zosweka yatsika m'miyezi yaposachedwa. Tsopano pali mantha omwe akuchulukirachulukira akuti kukwera kwa mitengo - ndi chiwongola dzanja chokwera cholimbana nacho - zingayambitse kusakhazikika kwachuma konse.
Ngati mukubwera ndi zinthu zomwe mudaitanitsa mwezi wapitawo, pomwe mitengo yokhazikika yakwera kwambiri, ndiye kuti kudziwa chifukwa chake kusinthaku kumachitika ndi chitonthozo chowawa.
"Tinali ndi phindu laling'ono pa hot rolling ndi phindu labwino pa cold rolling ndi coating. Tsopano tikutaya ndalama pa hot rolling ndipo tili ndi ndalama zochepa pa cold rolling ndi coating," mkulu wa malo operekera chithandizo posachedwapa adauza Steel Businesses. Zosintha."
Chithunzi 1: Nthawi yochepa yoperekera zitsulo zimathandiza kuti mphero zikonzekeretsedwe kuti zigwirizane ndi mitengo yotsika. (Mitengo ya HRC ikuwonetsedwa mu mipiringidzo yabuluu ndi masiku otumizira mu mipiringidzo imvi.)
Popeza ndemanga zotere, mwina sizodabwitsa kuti zomwe SMU yapeza posachedwapa ndizosasangalatsa kwambiri zomwe taziwonapo kuyambira pomwe nkhondo idayamba. Nthawi yogwirira ntchito ya HRC yachepetsedwa (onani Chithunzi 1). (Mutha kupanga izi ndi zina zofanana pogwiritsa ntchito chida chathu cholumikizirana chamitengo. Muyenera kukhala membala wa SMU. Lowani ndikupita ku: www.steelmarketupdate.com/dynamic-pricing-graph/interactive-pricing-tool-members.)
Mu kuyerekeza kwa mbiri yakale, nthawi yotsogolera HRC ya masabata pafupifupi anayi ndi yofanana. Koma ngakhale nthawi yotumizira yabwerera mwakale, mitengo ikadali yokwera kwambiri poyerekeza ndi miyezo yakale. Mwachitsanzo, ngati muyang'ana mmbuyo mu Ogasiti 2019, mliriwu usanasokoneze msika, nthawi yotumizira inali yofanana ndi ya pano, koma HRC inali $585 pa tani.
Mafakitale ambiri ali okonzeka kukambirana mitengo yotsika chifukwa cha nthawi yochepa yotumizira. Oyankha adatiuza kuti pafupifupi 90% ya mafakitale am'nyumba ali okonzeka kuganizira za kuthekera kochepetsa mitengo ya zinthu zokulungidwa kuti akope maoda atsopano. Zinthu zasintha kwambiri kuyambira mu Marichi, pomwe pafupifupi mafakitale onse amalimbikira kukweza mitengo (onani Chithunzi 2).
Sizichitika mwachisawawa. Malo ambiri operekera chithandizo ndi opanga zinthu akutiuza kuti akufuna kuchepetsa zinthu zomwe zili m'sitolo, zomwe zachitika mofulumira m'masabata aposachedwa (onani Chithunzi 3).
Si mafakitale okha omwe akuchepetsa mitengo. Izi ndi zomwe zimachitikanso m'malo operekera chithandizo. Izi ndi zina zomwe zikusiyana kwambiri ndi zomwe zimachitika mu Marichi-Epulo, pomwe malo operekera chithandizo monga mafakitale adakweza mitengo mwamphamvu.
Malipoti ofanana ndi amenewa akuwonekeranso kwina. Zinanenedwanso kuti anali pambali. Anthu ambiri akuda nkhawa ndi tsogolo lawo. Koma mwamvetsa lingaliro.
Sitilinso pamsika wa ogulitsa monga momwe tinaliri nthawi zambiri mu Marichi ndi Epulo. M'malo mwake, tinabwerera ku msika wa ogula kumayambiriro kwa chaka, komwe nkhondoyo inadzutsa nkhawa kwakanthawi za kupezeka kwa zipangizo zofunika monga chitsulo cha nkhumba.
Zotsatira za kafukufuku wathu waposachedwa zikusonyeza kuti anthu akupitirizabe kuyembekezera kuti mitengo itsike, makamaka pakapita nthawi yochepa (onani Tchati 4). Kodi adzatha kubwereranso mu kotala lachinayi?
Choyamba, msika wa zimbalangondo: Sindikonda kulankhula za chilimwe cha 2008. Sindikuganiza kuti kufananiza ndi nthawi imeneyo kuyenera kuonedwa mopepuka, monga momwe zimachitikira nthawi zina. Koma kungakhale kulakwitsa ngati sindingavomereze kuti ena mwa omwe akutenga nawo mbali pamsika anali ndi nkhawa ndi kufanana kwakukulu pakati pa Juni 2008 ndi Juni 2022.
Ena anakumbukira fakitaleyo, yomwe inatsimikizira kuti chilichonse chinali bwino. Kufunika kumeneko n’kwabwino, monganso momwe zinthu zilili m’misika yosiyanasiyana yomwe amatumikira mpaka zinthuzo zitatha usiku wonse. Anamva mayankho a akuluakulu a makampani a zitsulo omwe amadziwa bwino mawu a mu 2008.
Chithunzi 2. Makampani opanga zitsulo akugogomezera kukwera kwa mitengo ya zitsulo mu Marichi. Kuyambira mu Juni, akhala osinthasintha kwambiri pakukambirana kwawo za mitengo ya zitsulo.
Sindinakonzekere kuyang'ana kwambiri kufanana kwa chaka cha 2008. Mitengo ku Asia ikuoneka kuti ikukhazikika, ndipo zopereka zachitsulo chogubuduzika kwambiri sizili mpikisano kwambiri chifukwa cha kutsika kwa mitengo ya m'dziko. Pali kusiyana kwakukulu pakati pa mitengo yochokera kunja ndi mitengo ya m'dziko yachitsulo chogubuduzika chozizira ndi chophimbidwa. Koma pamenepo, monga momwe tikumvera, kusiyanaku kukuchepa mofulumira.
"Ngati mutakhala wogula, mukanati: "Dikirani, n'chifukwa chiyani tsopano ndikugula zinthu zogulitsa kunja (HRC)? Mitengo ya m'dziko muno idzafika pa $50 peresenti. Sindikudziwa ngati zikafika pa $50 zidzasiya. . Ndiye, mtengo wabwino wogula kunja ndi wotani?" manejala wina wa fakitale anandiuza.
Kumbukirani kuti dziko la US nthawi zambiri limakhala logwirizana ndi msika wapadziko lonse mobwerezabwereza. M'chilimwe cha 2020, mitengo ya chitsulo chosungunuka cha ku Asia idatsika pansi pa mtengo wa ku Asia. Mukukumbukira $440/t? Kenako kwa zaka ziwiri zotsatira sizinapite kulikonse.
Ndikukumbukiranso mawu omwe katswiri wamkulu wa zachitsulo anandiuza nthawi ina kuti: “Aliyense akataya mtima mu zachitsulo, nthawi zambiri zimabwerera.”
Msonkhano wa SMU Steel, womwe ndi msonkhano waukulu kwambiri wapachaka wa zitsulo ku North America, udzachitika pa 22-24 Ogasiti ku Georgia International Convention Center ku Atlanta. Ine ndidzakhalapo. Tikuyembekezera kuti opanga zisankho pafupifupi 1,200 mumakampani opanga mbale ndi mbale nawonso adzapezekapo. Mahotela ena apafupi atha.
Monga ndidanenera mwezi watha, ngati simukudziwa chochita, ganizirani izi motere: Mutha kukonza nthawi yokumana ndi kasitomala kasanu ndi kamodzi, kapena mutha kukumana naye kamodzi ku Atlanta. Kayendetsedwe ka zinthu n'kovuta kupambana. Mutha kutenga sitima kuchokera ku eyapoti kupita kumalo ochitira misonkhano ndi mahotela apafupi. Mutha kulowa ndi kutuluka popanda kuda nkhawa ndi kubwereka galimoto kapena kuyenda pakati pa magalimoto.
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FABRICATOR ndi magazini yotsogola yopanga ndi kupanga zitsulo ku North America. Magaziniyi imafalitsa nkhani, nkhani zaukadaulo ndi nkhani zopambana zomwe zimathandiza opanga kuti agwire ntchito yawo bwino kwambiri. FABRICATOR yakhala ikugwira ntchito kuyambira mu 1970.
Tsopano popeza muli ndi mwayi wopeza zonse zokhudza buku la digito la The FABRICATOR, mutha kupeza mosavuta zinthu zofunika kwambiri m'makampani.
Magazini ya digito ya The Tube & Pipe Journal tsopano ikupezeka mosavuta, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zinthu zofunika kwambiri m'makampani zipezeke mosavuta.
Pezani mwayi wokwanira wa digito ku STAMPING Journal, yokhala ndi ukadaulo waposachedwa, njira zabwino kwambiri komanso nkhani zamakampani pamsika woponda zitsulo.
Tsopano popeza muli ndi mwayi wopeza zinthu zonse za digito ku The Fabricator en Español, mutha kupeza mosavuta zinthu zamtengo wapatali zamakampani.