Ibiciro by'ibyuma bisa nkaho birimo kugabanuka nyuma y'izamuka ry'ibiciro muri Werurwe nyuma y'uko Uburusiya bwigaruriye Ukraine. betoon/iStock/Getty Images
Isoko ry'ibyuma ryasubiye ku rwego rwa mbere y'intambara muri Ukraine. Ikibazo nyamukuru ubu si ukumenya niba ibiciro bizagabanuka, ahubwo ni ukumenya igihe bizagabanuka vuba n'aho bizagabanuka.
Ukurikije ibivugwa ku isoko, bamwe bafite amakenga ko ibiciro bizagabanuka bikagera cyangwa bikajya munsi y’amadolari 1.000 kuri toni, ibi bikaba ari nk’urugero nyuma y’igitero cyuzuye cy’ingabo z’u Burusiya.
“Ndahangayikishijwe cyane n’aho azahagarara? Sintekereza ko azahagarara kugeza igihe – Abracadabra! – intambara itazatangira. Uruganda ruravuga ruti “Sawa, tugiye kugabanya umuvuduko,” umuyobozi w’ikigo cy’itumanaho yagize ati.
Umuyobozi wa kabiri w’ikigo cy’itumanaho yaremeye. Yagize ati: “Nkunda kuvuga ku biciro biri hasi kuko mfite ububiko kandi ndashaka ko ibiciro biri hejuru.” Ariko ndatekereza ko turimo kugaruka vuba mbere y’uko Putin atera.”
Dukurikije igikoresho cyacu cyo gutanga ibiciro, igiciro cya hot rolled coil (HRC) cyageraga ku madolari 1,000/toni hagati muri Mata bisa nkaho bidashoboka ubwo ibiciro byari hafi ku madolari 1,500/toni. Nanone, ibuka ko muri Nzeri 2021, ibiciro byageze hafi ku madolari 1,955 kuri toni, ariko kuzamuka kugera ku rwego rwo hejuru cyane muri Nzeri ishize ni intambwe ikomeye ugereranije n’izamuka ry’ibiciro ritigeze ribaho twabonye muri Werurwe 2022. Inzira ndende, ubwo ibiciro bya hot-rolled coil byazamutseho $435/toni bigera ku madolari 31.
Nanditse ku byuma n'ibyuma kuva mu 2007. Amakuru ya SMU ahera mu 2007. Nk'uko twabibonye muri Werurwe. Iri ni ryo zamuka rikomeye ry'ibiciro by'ibyuma mu myaka 15 ishize, ndetse wenda n'iryabayeho mbere hose.
Ariko ubu ntabwo bigoye kwiyumvisha ibiciro bya "hot rolled coil" biri munsi cyangwa munsi ya $1,000 kuri toni. Hashyizweho kontineri nshya. Ibiciro by'ibyuma bishaje byaragabanutse mu mezi ashize. Ubu hariho impungenge ko izamuka ry'ibiciro - n'inyungu nyinshi zo kubirwanya - bishobora gutera ihungabana ry'ubukungu muri rusange.
Niba uzanye ibikoresho wari watumije ukwezi gushize, ibiciro byabyo byazamutse cyane, kumenya impamvu iryo hindagurika ribaho ni ihumure ribabaje.
“Twagize amahirwe make mu gushyushya no gusiga irangi mu buryo bushyushye n’amahirwe meza mu gushyushya no gusiga irangi mu buryo bushyushye. Ubu turimo gutakaza amafaranga mu gushyushya no gusiga irangi mu buryo bushyushye kandi dufite amafaranga make mu gushyushya no gusiga irangi mu buryo bushyushye,” umuyobozi w’ikigo gitanga serivisi aherutse kubwira Steel Businesses. Amakuru mashya.”
Ishusho ya 1: Igihe gito cyo gushora imari mu byuma bituma inganda zitegura kugabanya ibiciro. (Ibiciro bya HRC bigaragara mu tubari tw'ubururu n'amatariki yo kubitanga mu tubari tw'imvi.)
Ukurikije ibitekerezo nk'ibi, birashoboka ko bidatangaje kubona ibyavumbuwe na SMU ari byo byihebye kurusha ibindi byose twabonye kuva intambara yatangira. Igihe cyo gushyira mu bikorwa HRC cyaragabanutse (reba Ishusho ya 1). (Ushobora gukora iyi mbonerahamwe n'izindi zisa nayo ukoresheje igikoresho cyacu cyo gushyira mu bikorwa ibiciro. Ugomba kuba uri umunyamuryango wa SMU. Injira hanyuma usure: www.steelmarketupdate.com/dynamic-pricing-graph/interactive-pricing-tool-members.)
Mu bigereranyo byinshi bya kera, igihe cyo gutanga HRC kingana n'ibyumweru bine ni cyo gisanzwe. Ariko nubwo igihe cyo gutanga cyasubiye ku buryo busanzwe, ibiciro biracyari hejuru cyane ugereranyije n'ibipimo bya kera. Urugero, iyo urebye muri Kanama 2019, mbere y'uko icyorezo kibangamira isoko, igihe cyo gutanga cyari nk'icyo ubu, ariko HRC yari $585 kuri toni.
Inganda nyinshi ziteguye kugabanya ibiciro bitewe n'igihe gito cyo gutanga ibicuruzwa. Ababajijwe batubwiye ko hafi 90% by'inganda zo mu rugo ziteguye gutekereza ku buryo bwo kugabanya ibiciro by'ibicuruzwa bizinze kugira ngo bikurure abaguzi bashya. Ibintu byarahindutse cyane kuva muri Werurwe, aho hafi ya zose zakomeje gushimangira ko zigomba kuzamura ibiciro (reba Ishusho ya 2).
Ntabwo bibaho mu buryo butunguranye. Umubare munini w’ibigo bitanga serivisi n’inganda zikora ibicuruzwa utubwira ko zishaka kugabanya ibicuruzwa, ikintu cyiyongera cyane mu byumweru bishize (reba Ishusho ya 3).
Si inganda gusa zigabanya ibiciro. Ni ko bimeze no ku bigo bitanga serivisi. Iki ni ikindi gihinduka gikomeye ugereranije n’icyerekezo cya Werurwe-Mata, aho ibigo bitanga serivisi nk’inganda byazamuye ibiciro cyane.
Raporo nk'izo ziragaragara ahandi. Byavuzwe kandi ko bari ku ruhande. Abantu benshi barushaho kugira icyizere ku by'ejo hazaza habo. Ariko warabyumvise.
Ntabwo tukiri ku isoko ry'umugurisha nk'uko twari turi muri Werurwe na Mata hafi ya yose. Ahubwo, twasubiye ku isoko ry'umuguzi mu ntangiriro z'umwaka, aho intambara yateje impungenge z'igihe gito ku bijyanye no kuboneka kw'ibikoresho by'ingenzi nk'ibyuma by'ingurube.
Ibisubizo by’ubushakashatsi bwacu bwa vuba bigaragaza ko abantu bakomeje kwitega ko ibiciro bizagabanuka, nibura mu gihe gito (reba Imbonerahamwe ya 4). Ese bazashobora kuzamuka mu gihembwe cya kane?
Ubwa mbere, isoko ry'ibihu: Sinkunda kuvuga ku mpeshyi ya 2008. Sinkunda kugereranya n'icyo gihe byagombye gufatwa nk'ibisanzwe, nk'uko rimwe na rimwe bigenda. Ariko byaba ari ukwibeshya iyo ntakwemera ko bamwe mu bitabiriye isoko bahangayikishijwe n'ibisa cyane hagati ya Kamena 2008 na Kamena 2022.
Bamwe bibutse uruganda, rwemeza ko byose byari mu buryo. Ibyo ni icyifuzo cyiza, kimwe n'ibisigaye mu masoko atandukanye bakorera kugeza ubwo ibisigaye bizimira hafi mu ijoro rimwe. Bumvise ibisubizo by'abayobozi b'inganda z'ibyuma bazi neza imvugo yo mu 2008.
Ishusho ya 2. Inganda zikora ibyuma zishimangira ko ibiciro by'ibyuma bizazamuka muri Werurwe. Guhera muri Kamena, bagiye barushaho kugira ubworoherane mu biganiro byabo ku biciro by'ibyuma.
Siniteguye kwibanda ku bisa byo mu 2008. Ibiciro muri Aziya bisa nkaho biri kugenda bihagarara, kandi ibiciro by'ibyuma bitumizwa hanze ntabwo bihangana cyane bitewe n'umuvuduko w'igabanuka ry'ibiciro mu gihugu. Hari icyuho kinini hagati y'ibiciro bitumizwa hanze n'iby'imbere mu gihugu ku byuma bikonje n'ibisizwe. Ariko aho ngaho, nk'uko tubyumva, icyuho kirimo kugabanuka vuba.
“Iyo uba umuguzi, wavuga uti: “Tegereza, kuki ubu ngubu nguze ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga (HRC)? Ibiciro byo mu gihugu bizagera kuri $50 ku ijana. Sinzi neza nibagera kuri $50 bazahagarara. None se, igiciro cyiza cyo gutumizwa mu mahanga ni ikihe?” umuyobozi w’uruganda yarambwiye.
Wibuke ko Amerika ikunze kwibanda ku isoko mpuzamahanga kenshi. Mu mpeshyi ya 2020, twagabanutseho ibiciro byo muri Aziya ku byuma bishyushye. Wibuka $440/t? Hanyuma mu myaka ibiri yakurikiyeho ntacyo byagiyemo.
Ndibuka kandi amagambo umusesenguzi mukuru mu nganda z'ibyuma yigeze kumbwira ati: “Iyo buri wese yitaye ku nganda z'ibyuma, akenshi biragaruka.”
Inama ya SMU Steel, inama nini ngarukamwaka y’ibyuma muri Amerika ya Ruguru, izaba kuva ku ya 22 kugeza ku ya 24 Kanama mu Nyubako Mpuzamahanga ya Georgia i Atlanta. Nzaba mpari. Twiteze ko abantu bagera ku 1.200 bafata ibyemezo mu nganda zikora ibikoresho by’ibyuma bazitabira. Amwe mu mahoteli yegereye aha arashize.
Nkuko nabivuze mu kwezi gushize, niba utiteguye gufata icyemezo, tekereza kuri ubu buryo: Ushobora gutegura inama y'umukiriya inshuro esheshatu, cyangwa ushobora guhura na we rimwe i Atlanta. Uburyo bwo gutwara ibintu buragoye. Ushobora gufata gari ya moshi iva ku kibuga cy'indege ikajya aho inama ibera no muri hoteli ziri hafi aho. Ushobora kwinjira no gusohoka utitaye ku gukodesha imodoka cyangwa kunyura mu muhanda munini w'imodoka.
To learn more about SMU or sign up for a free trial subscription, please send an email to info@steelmarketupdate.com.
FABRICATOR ni ikinyamakuru gikomeye muri Amerika y'Amajyaruguru gikora kandi gitunganya ibyuma. Iki kinyamakuru gisohora amakuru, inkuru za tekiniki n'inkuru z'intsinzi zifasha abakora akazi kabo gukora akazi kabo neza kurushaho. FABRICATOR imaze igihe iri mu nganda kuva mu 1970.
Ubu hamwe n'uburyo bwose bwo kubona igitabo cya The FABRICATOR digital edition, byoroshye kubona ibikoresho by'agaciro by'inganda.
Ikinyamakuru The Tube & Pipe Journal cyo kuri interineti ubu kiraboneka neza, gitanga uburyo bworoshye bwo kubona ibikoresho by'agaciro by'inganda.
Shaka uburyo bwuzuye bwo gukoresha ikoranabuhanga rya STAMPING Journal, ririmo ikoranabuhanga rigezweho, uburyo bwiza bwo gukora ibintu n'amakuru y'inganda ku isoko ry'ubukorikori bw'ibyuma.
Ubu ufite uburenganzira bwose bwo gukoresha The Fabricator mu rurimi rw'Icyongereza, ushobora kubona byoroshye ibikoresho by'agaciro by'inganda.