Da alama farashin karafa na faduwa bayan tashin gwauron zabi a watan Maris bayan mamayar da Rasha ta yi wa Ukraine. betoon/iStock/Getty Hotuna
Kasuwar karafa da sauri ta koma matakin yakin kafin yakin Ukraine. Babban tambaya a yanzu ba shine ko farashin zai fadi ba, amma yadda sauri da kuma inda kasa zai iya zama.
Idan aka yi la’akari da maganar da ake yi a kasuwa, wasu na nuna shakku kan cewa farashin zai ragu zuwa ko kasa da dalar Amurka ton 1,000, wanda ya yi daidai da matakin bayan mamayewar sojojin Rasha.
"Na fi damuwa da inda zai tsaya? Ba na tsammanin zai tsaya har sai - Abracadabra! - yakin ba zai fara ba. Ma'aikatar ta ce, "Ok, za mu rage gudu," in ji manajan cibiyar sabis.
Shugaban na biyu na cibiyar sabis ya yarda. "Na ƙi magana game da ƙananan farashin saboda ina da kaya kuma ina son farashi mafi girma," in ji shi. "Amma ina tsammanin za mu dawo kan hanya da sauri kafin mamayewar Putin."
Dangane da kayan aikin mu na farashin, hasashen farashin $1,000/t hot rolled coil (HRC) a tsakiyar watan Afrilu da alama ba zai yuwu ba lokacin da farashin ya kusa $1,500/t. Har ila yau, ka tuna cewa a cikin watan Satumba na 2021, farashin ya kai kusan $ 1,955 a kowace ton, amma tashin zuwa wani lokaci mafi girma a watan Satumba na karshe shine babban mataki daga karuwar farashin da ba a taba gani ba a watan Maris 2022. Tsari mai tsawo, lokacin da farashin coil mai zafi ya karu da $ 435 / t zuwa $ 31. sama.
Na rubuta game da karfe da karafa tun 2007. Bayanan SMU ya koma 2007. Kama da abin da muka gani a watan Maris. Wannan shi ne babban karuwar farashin karafa a cikin shekaru 15 da suka gabata, kuma mai yiyuwa ne har abada.
Amma yanzu ba shi da wuya a yi tunanin farashin coil mai zafi a ko ƙasa da $1,000/ton. Ana ƙara sabon akwati. Farashin karafa ya fadi a 'yan watannin nan. Yanzu ana fargabar cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki - da hauhawar riba don yaki da shi - na iya haifar da koma bayan tattalin arziki gaba daya.
Idan kuna kawo kayan yanzu da kuka ba da oda wata guda da ta gabata, lokacin da farashin tabo ya tashi sosai, to sanin dalilin da yasa waɗannan canje-canjen ke faruwa abin ta'aziyya ne.
"Muna da ɗan ƙaramin gefe a cikin mirgina mai zafi da kuma kyakkyawan gefe a cikin mirgina mai sanyi da sutura. Yanzu muna asarar kuɗi akan mirgina mai zafi kuma muna da kuɗi kaɗan akan mirgina sanyi da sutura," wani jami'in cibiyar sabis kwanan nan ya gaya wa Kasuwancin Karfe. Sabuntawa."
Hoto 1: Shortan lokutan gubar don ƙarfe na takarda suna ba da damar masana'anta su kasance cikin shirye don yin shawarwarin ƙananan farashin. (An nuna farashin HRC a cikin sanduna shuɗi da kwanakin bayarwa a cikin sanduna masu launin toka.)
Idan aka ba da irin waɗannan maganganun, wataƙila ba abin mamaki ba ne cewa sabon binciken SMU shine mafi ƙarancin da muka gani tun farkon yaƙin. An rage lokacin aiwatar da HRC (duba Hoto 1). (Za ku iya ƙirƙirar wannan da sauran hotuna masu kama da juna ta amfani da kayan aikin farashin mu. Dole ne ku zama memba na SMU. Shiga ku ziyarci: www.steelmarketupdate.com/dynamic-pricing-graph/interactive-pricing-tool-members.)
A mafi yawan kwatancen tarihi, lokacin jagorar HRC na kusan makonni 4 daidai ne. Amma yayin da lokutan isarwa ke komawa ga al'ada, farashin har yanzu yana da yawa idan aka kwatanta da ka'idodin da suka gabata. Misali, idan ka waiwayi baya a watan Agustan 2019, kafin barkewar cutar ta karkatar da kasuwa, lokutan isar da kayayyaki sun yi kusan daidai da na yanzu, amma HRC ta kasance $585 kowace ton.
Ƙarin masana'antu suna shirye don yin shawarwari kan farashi mai sauƙi saboda gajeren lokacin bayarwa. Masu amsa sun gaya mana cewa kusan kashi 90% na tsire-tsire na cikin gida suna shirye don yin la'akari da yiwuwar rage farashin samfuran birgima don jawo sabbin umarni. Lamarin ya canza sosai tun watan Maris, lokacin da kusan dukkan masana'antu suka dage kan kara farashin (duba Hoto na 2).
Ba ya faruwa a cikin sarari. Yawan cibiyoyin sabis da masana'antun suna gaya mana suna neman rage ƙima, yanayin da ya haɓaka cikin 'yan makonnin nan (duba Hoto 3).
Ba masana'antu kawai ke rage farashin ba. Haka yake ga cibiyoyin sabis. Wannan wani babban koma baya ne daga yanayin Maris-Afrilu, lokacin da cibiyoyin sabis kamar masana'antu suka tayar da farashi mai tsanani.
Irin wannan rahotanni sun bayyana a wani wuri. An kuma bayyana cewa suna gefe. Da yawan mutane ba su da rai game da makomarsu ta gaba. Amma kun sami ra'ayin.
Ba mu kasance a cikin kasuwar mai sayarwa da muke cikin mafi yawan Maris da Afrilu ba. Maimakon haka, mun koma kasuwar mai siye a farkon shekara, inda yakin ya haifar da damuwa na dan lokaci game da samun mahimman kayan albarkatun kasa kamar ƙarfe na alade.
Sakamakon binciken mu na baya-bayan nan ya nuna cewa mutane na ci gaba da tsammanin farashin zai faɗo, aƙalla cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci (duba Chart 4). Shin za su iya murmurewa a cikin kwata na huɗu?
Na farko, kasuwar beyar: Ba na son yin magana game da lokacin rani na 2008. Ba na tsammanin ya kamata a dauki kwatancen wannan lokacin da sauƙi, kamar yadda suke a wasu lokuta. Amma zai zama damuwa idan ban yarda cewa wasu mahalarta kasuwar sun damu da kamanceceniya da yawa tsakanin Yuni 2008 da Yuni 2022 ba.
Wasu sun tuna da shuka, wanda ya tabbatar da cewa komai yana cikin tsari. Wannan bukatu ce mai kyau, kamar yadda ake samun koma baya a kasuwanni daban-daban da suke hidima har sai wadancan bayanan sun bace kusan dare daya. Sun ji martanin shugabannin masana'antar karafa duk sun saba da maganganun 2008.
Hoto 2. Masana'antar karafa sun dage kan tashin farashin karfe a watan Maris. Tun daga watan Yuni, sun kasance masu sassaucin ra'ayi a tattaunawarsu game da farashin karfe.
Ban shirya cikakken mayar da hankali kan kamanceceniyar 2008 ba. Farashin farashi a Asiya ya bayyana yana daidaitawa, kuma tayin shigo da karafa masu zafi ba su da fa'ida sosai idan aka yi la'akari da faduwar farashin cikin gida. Akwai babban tazara tsakanin farashin da ake shigowa da shi daga waje da na cikin gida na mai sanyi da kuma mai rufi. Amma a can, kamar yadda muka fahimta, tazarar tana raguwa da sauri.
“Idan kai mai siye ne, za ka ce: “Dakata, me ya sa yanzu nake siyan shigo da kaya (HRC)? Farashin gida zai kai $50 bisa ɗari. Ban tabbata lokacin da suka ci $50 ba za su tsaya. . Don haka, menene kyakkyawan farashin shigo da kaya?” wani manajan masana'anta ya gaya mani.
Ka tuna cewa Amurka tana son a danganta ta da kasuwannin duniya akai-akai. A lokacin bazara na 2020, mun faɗi ƙasa da farashin Asiya don ƙarfe mai birgima mai zafi. Ka tuna $440/t? Sannan shekaru biyu masu zuwa ba a je ko’ina ba.
Na kuma tuna wani furucin wani babban manazarcin masana’antar karafa ya taɓa gaya mani: “Idan kowa ya jefa tawul a masana’antar ƙarfe, yawanci yakan dawo.”
Taron koli na SMU Karfe, babban taron karafa na shekara-shekara a Arewacin Amurka, za a gudanar da shi a watan Agusta 22-24 a Cibiyar Taron Kasa da Kasa ta Georgia a Atlanta. Zan kasance a can. Muna sa ran kusan masu yanke shawara 1,200 a cikin faranti da masana'antar faranti suma su halarta. Ana sayar da wasu otal na kusa.
Kamar yadda na fada a watan da ya gabata, idan ba ku da yanke shawara, kuyi la'akari da shi ta wannan hanya: Kuna iya tsara taron abokin ciniki sau shida, ko kuna iya saduwa da su sau ɗaya a Atlanta. Abubuwan dabaru suna da wuya a doke su. Kuna iya ɗaukar tram daga filin jirgin sama zuwa wurin taron da otal ɗin kusa. Kuna iya shiga da fita ba tare da damuwa game da hayan mota ba ko yin zirga-zirgar ababen hawa.
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