Ukuhlasela kwe-Ukraine kusho ukuthi abathengi bensimbi kuzodingeka babhekane nokuguquguquka okukhulu kwentengo ezinyangeni ezizayo. I-Getty Images
Manje kubonakala sengathi zonke izinjana zimnyama. Esokuqala ubhubhane. Yilwa manje. Awudingi i-Steel Market Update (SMU) ukuze ikukhumbuze ngokuhlupheka kwabantu okwesabekayo okubangelwe yiwo wonke umuntu.
Ngishilo esethulweni eNgqungqutheleni Yensimbi yaseTampa maphakathi noFebhuwari ukuthi igama elithi uncameless lisetshenziswa ngokweqile. Ngeshwa, bengingalungile. Ukukhiqiza kungenzeka ukuthi kunqobe ubhubhane lwe-COVID-19 olubi kakhulu, kodwa imiphumela yempi e-Ukraine ingathinta izimakethe njengoba nje nobhubhane luthinta.
Iyini ithonya emananini ensimbi? Uma sibheka emuva kokuthile esakubhala kudala — kuzwakala sengathi kusemkhathini ohlukile njengamanje — amanani ehla ngokushesha, kodwa kuyingozi ukubhala nganoma yini ngenxa yokwesaba ukuthi ngesikhathi lesi sihloko sishicilelwa sesiphelelwe yisikhathi.
Kunjalo namanje – ngaphandle kokuthi intengo ehlayo ithathelwa indawo yintengo ekhuphukayo. Okokuqala ohlangothini lwezinto zokusetshenziswa, manje futhi ohlangothini lwensimbi.
Ungakholwa yimi. Buza nje abenzi bensimbi baseYurophu noma baseTurkey noma abenzi bezimoto ukuthi babonani manje: ukushoda kanye nokungahlali kahle ngenxa yezindleko zikagesi eziphakeme kakhulu noma ukushoda kokutholakala kwezinto eziyisisekelo. Ngamanye amazwi, ukutholakala sekuba yinto ekhathazayo kakhulu, kuyilapho amanani eYurophu naseTurkey eyinkinga yesibili.
Sizobona umthelela eNyakatho Melika, kodwa njengase-COVID, kukhona ukulibaziseka okuncane. Mhlawumbe ngezinga elincane ngoba uchungechunge lwethu lokuhlinzeka aluxhumene neRussia ne-Ukraine njengoba luxhumene neYurophu.
Eqinisweni, sesivele sibone eminye yale miphumela yokungena. Lapho lesi sihloko sithunyelwa maphakathi noMashi, intengo yethu yakamuva ye-HRC yayingu-$1,050/t, ikhuphuke ngo-$50/t kusukela esontweni elidlule futhi yephula umkhawulo wezinyanga eziyi-6 wamanani aqondile noma awe kusukela ekuqaleni kukaSepthemba (bheka uMfanekiso 1).
Yini eshintshile? I-Nucor imemezele ukwenyuka kwentengo ngo-$100/ton ekuqaleni kukaMashi ngemuva kokumemezela okunye ukwenyuka kwentengo ngo-$50/ton ngasekupheleni kukaFebhuwari. Ezinye izinkampani zokukhiqiza zilandelele obala noma buthule ziphakamise amanani ngaphandle kwencwadi esemthethweni eya kumakhasimende.
Ngokuphathelene nemininingwane, siqophe ezinye zezentengiselwano ezisaqhubeka ngentengo "endala" yangaphambi kokwenyusa engu-$900/t. Sesizwile ngisho nangezinye izivumelwano - ngaphambi kokuba amabutho aseRussia ahlasele i-Ukraine - ku-$800/t. Manje sibona izinzuzo ezintsha ezifika ku-$1,200/t.
Ungaba kanjani nesilinganiso esiphakathi kuka-$300/ton kuya ku-$400/ton ngesikhathi esisodwa samanani? Imakethe efanayo eyahleka usulu ukwenyuka kwentengo ka-$50/ton eCleveland-Cliffs ngoFebhuwari 21 yathatha kanjani iNucor ngokungathi sína emasontweni amabili kamuva?
Abenzi bensimbi babonakala bejabulela ukwanda kwentengo yensimbi, ebilokhu yehla kusukela ngoSepthemba, kodwa konke lokho kwashintsha lapho iRussia ihlasela i-Ukraine. Izithombe ze-Aguirre/Getty
Ngeshwa, impendulo yalo mbuzo isobala kakhulu: Amasosha aseRussia ahlasela i-Ukraine ngoFebhuwari 24. Manje sinempi ende phakathi kwezizwe okungenani ezimbili ezibalulekile ezikhiqiza insimbi.
Indawo eyodwa ochungechungeni lokuphakelwa oluxhumene kakhulu lwase-US, eRussia nase-Ukraine yi-pig iron. Izimboni ze-EAF sheet mills eNyakatho Melika, njengalezo eziseTurkey, zithembele kakhulu ensimbini yengulube ene-phosphorus ephansi evela e-Ukraine naseRussia. Okunye okukhethwa kukho okuseduze yiBrazil. Njengoba insimbi yengulube ingekho, amanani akhuphuke ngokushesha kangangokuthi ngiyanqikaza ukusho izinombolo lapha njengoba ziphelelwa yisikhathi cishe ngokushesha.
Eqinisweni, intengo yensimbi yengulube (ne-slab) isondela kweyensimbi esiqediwe. Kukhona nokuntuleka kwama-ferroalloy, futhi akuwona amanani ensimbi kuphela akhuphukayo. Kunjalo nangamanani kawoyela, igesi kanye nogesi.
Ngokuphathelene nezikhathi zokukhokha, zehle zaya ngaphansi kwamasonto amane maphakathi noJanuwari. Zaqhubeka kwaze kwaba uFebhuwari zaphinde zaqala ukusebenza amasonto amane ngoMashi 1. Muva nje ngizwe ukuthi ezinye izimboni bezivuliwe amasonto amahlanu. Ngeke ngimangale uma izikhathi zokulethwa ziqhubeka nokwelula njengoba izinkampani ziphinde zingena emakethe ukuzothenga. Akekho ofuna ukuthenga kuze kube yilapho imakethe iphela. Sifinyelele kuleli zinga emasontweni ambalwa edlule futhi seliqala ukubuya.
Kungani ngingaqiniseka? Okokuqala, amanani ase-US asuke phezulu kakhulu emhlabeni aya phansi kakhulu. Futhi, abantu baye bayeka kakhulu ukuthenga izimpahla ezingenisiwe becabanga ukuthi amanani asekhaya azoqhubeka nokwehla futhi izikhathi zokulethwa zihlala zifushane. Lokho kusho ukuthi cishe ngeke kube khona ukunikezwa okwengeziwe. Kuthiwani uma i-US ingaqala ukuthumela insimbi kwamanye amazwe? Enyangeni nje edlule, lokhu kwakuyinto ethokozisayo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Kungenzeka ngempela esikhathini esifushane manje.
Esinye isipho esisindisayo ukuthi izinqolobane aziphansi njengoba zazinjalo ezinsukwini zokuqala zobhubhane lapho isidingo siqala (bheka uMfanekiso 2). Sisuke ezinsukwini ezingaba ngu-65 ekupheleni konyaka odlule (eziphezulu) saya ezinsukwini ezingaba ngu-55 muva nje. Kodwa lokho kusephezulu kakhulu kunokunikezwa kwezinsuku ezingu-40 kuya kwezingu-50 esikubonile engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka odlule. Khumbula, lapho ukunikezwa kuphakathi kwezinsuku ezingu-40 kuya kwezingu-45, ukutholakala kuba yinkinga yesibili ngentengo - okubangela ukuba amanani ensimbi akhuphuke.
Ngakho-ke yamukela impahla yakho. Kungase okungenani kukunike isivikelo sesikhashana ekuguqukeni kwesimo esingase sibhekane nakho ezinyangeni ezizayo.
Kusesekuseni kakhulu ukufaka i-SMU Steel Summit elandelayo kukhalenda lakho. I-Steel Summit, umhlangano waminyaka yonke omkhulu kunayo yonke eNyakatho Melika we-flat and steel, uhlelelwe u-Agasti 22-24 e-Atlanta. Ungafunda kabanzi ngalo mcimbi lapha.
Ukuze uthole ulwazi olwengeziwe nge-SMU noma ukubhalisela ukubhalisa kwesilingo samahhala, sicela uthumele i-imeyili ku-info@steelmarketupdate.
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