Ukuhlasela kwe-Ukraine kusho ukuthi abathengi bensimbi kuzodingeka babhekane nokuntengantenga okukhulu kwentengo ezinyangeni ezizayo.Getty Images
Manje kubonakala sengathi wonke amadada amnyama.Owokuqala ubhubhane.Impi manje.Awudingi Isibuyekezo Semakethe Yensimbi (SMU) ukuze sikukhumbuze ngokuhlupheka kwabantu okunyantisayo okubangelwe yiwo wonke umuntu.
Ngasho ekwethulweni eNgqungqutheleni Yensimbi yaseTampa maphakathi noFebhuwari ukuthi igama elingakaze libonwe lisetshenziswe ngokweqile.Ngeshwa, nganginephutha.Ukukhiqiza kungenzeka ukuthi kwamelana nobhubhane olubi kakhulu lwe-COVID-19, kodwa imiphumela yempi yase-Ukraine ingase ihlasele izimakethe ngendlela efanayo nobhubhane.
Uyini umthelela emananini ensimbi? Uma sibheka emuva entweni esiyibhale kudala - kuzwakala sengathi ikwemunye umthala njengamanje - amanani ehla ngokushesha, kodwa kuyingozi ukubhala nganoma yini ngenxa yokwesaba ukuthi ngesikhathi lesi sihloko sinyatheliswa sesiphelelwe yisikhathi.
Okufanayo kuyiqiniso manje - ngaphandle kokuthi intengo ehlayo ithathelwa indawo yintengo ekhuphukayo.Okokuqala ohlangothini lwempahla eluhlaza, manje futhi ohlangothini lwensimbi.
Ungathathi izwi lami ngakho.Buza nje abenzi bensimbi baseYurophu noma baseTurkey noma abenzi bezimoto ukuthi yini abayibonayo manje: ukushoda kanye nokungenzi lutho ngenxa yezindleko zikagesi eziphakeme kakhulu noma ukushoda kokunikezwa kwezinto eziyisisekelo.Ngamanye amazwi, ukutholakala sekuqala ukukhathazeka okuyinhloko, kuyilapho intengo eYurophu naseTurkey iyinkinga yesibili.
Sizobona umthelela eNyakatho Melika, kodwa njenge-COVID, kukhona ukunensa kancane.Mhlawumbe ngokwezinga elincane ngoba uchungechunge lwethu lokuhlinzeka aluxhumekile eRussia nase-Ukraine njengoba luxhumene ne-Europe.
Eqinisweni, sesivele siyibonile eminye yale miphumela eqhubekayo.Lapho lesi sihloko sithunyelwa maphakathi no-March, intengo yethu yakamuva ye-HRC yayingu-$1,050/t, ikhuphuke ngo-$50/t kusukela esontweni ngaphambili futhi yephula umjaho wezinyanga eziyisi-6 wezintengo eziphansi noma eziwayo kusukela ekuqaleni kukaSepthemba ngokulandelana (bona Umfanekiso 1).
Yini eshintshile?I-Nucor imemezele ukwenyuka kwentengo ngo-$100/ton ekuqaleni kuka-March ngemva kokumemezela okunye ukukhuphuka kwentengo okungu-$50/ton ngasekupheleni kukaFebruwari.Ezinye izigayo zilandelele esidlangalaleni noma zikhuphule amanani buthule ngaphandle kwanoma iyiphi incwadi esemthethweni eya kumakhasimende.
Mayelana nokucaciswa, siqophe okunye ukuhweba okubambezeleka ngentengo "okudala" yokwenyuswa kwangaphambili kuka-$900/t.Sike sizwe ngamanye amadili - ngaphambi kokuthi amasosha aseRussia ahlasele i-Ukraine - ngo-$800/t.Manje sibona izinzuzo ezintsha ezifika ku-$1,200/t.
Ungaba kanjani no-$300/ithani ukuya ku-$400/ton esatshalaliswa ngeseshini eyodwa yentengo?Ingabe imakethe efanayo eyaklolodela ukukhuphuka kwentengo ka-Cleveland-Cliffs ka-$50/ton ngo-Feb. 21 yayithatha ngokungathi sína i-Nucor ngemva kwamasonto amabili?
Abenzi bensimbi babonakala bejabulela ukwephuka kwamanani ensimbi, abelokhu ehle kakhulu kusukela ngoSepthemba, kodwa konke kwashintsha lapho iRussia ihlasela i-Ukraine.Aguirre/Getty Images
Ngeshwa, impendulo yalo mbuzo isobala kakhulu: Amasosha aseRussia ahlasela i-Ukraine ngoFebhuwari 24. Manje sinempi ethatha isikhathi eside phakathi kwezizwe okungenani ezimbili ezibalulekile ezikhiqiza insimbi.
Indawo eyodwa ochungechungeni olusondelene lokuhlinzeka ngempahla lwase-US, eRussia nase-Ukraine insimbi yengulube.Izimboni zeshidi ze-EAF eNyakatho Melika, njengalezo zaseTurkey, zithembele kakhulu ensimbi yengulube ene-phosphorus ephansi evela e-Ukraine naseRussia.Okunye kuphela okukhethwa kukho okuseduzane yiBrazil.Njengoba i-iron yengulube ishoda, amanani akhuphuke ngokushesha kangangokuthi ngiyangabaza ukusho izinombolo cishe ngokushesha lapho ziphelelwa yisikhathi.
Eqinisweni, intengo yensimbi yengulube (kanye ne-slab) isondela kuleyo yensimbi ephelile.Kukhona nokushoda kwama-ferroalloys, futhi akuzona nje izintengo zensimbi ezikhuphukayo.Okufanayo namanani kawoyela, igesi nogesi.
Ngokuqondene nezikhathi zokuhola, zehla zaba ngaphansi kwamasonto angu-4 phakathi noJanuwari. Baqhubeka kwaze kwaba nguFebhuwari futhi baphinde baqhuma amasonto amane ngo-March 1. Ngizwile muva nje ukuthi ezinye izimboni sezivuliwe amasonto amahlanu. Ngeke ngimangale uma izikhathi zokulethwa ziqhubeka zinwebeka njengoba izinkampani ziphinde zingena emakethe ukuze zithenge. Akekho ofuna ukuthenga kuze kube yilapho imakethe iphuma.
Kungani ngingaqiniseka?Okokuqala, amanani e-US asuke kwephezulu kakhulu emhlabeni aya kwephansi kakhulu.Futhi, abantu bayekile kakhulu ukuthenga izimpahla ezivela kwamanye amazwe becabangela ukuthi amanani asekhaya azoqhubeka ehla futhi izikhathi zokulethwa zizohlala zimfushane.Lokho kusho ukuthi cishe ngeke kube khona ukuhlinzekwa okwengeziwe okwengeziwe. Kuthiwani uma i-US iqale ukuthumela insimbi?Enyangeni nje edlule, lokhu bekuyinto ethokozisayo impela kungenzeka ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
Umusa owodwa owongayo ukuthi uhlu lwezimpahla alukho phansi njengoba lwalunjalo ezinsukwini zokuqala zobhubhane lapho isidingo sitholwa (bheka uMdwebo 2). Sesihambile kusukela ezinsukwini ezingaba ngu-65 ekupheleni konyaka odlule (phezulu) saya cishe ezinsukwini ezingu-55 kamuva nje. okwenza amanani ensimbi enyuke.
Ngakho-ke yakha uhlu lwakho lwamagama olukhulu. Kungase okungenani kukunikeze isivimbeli sesikhashana ngokumelene nokuntengantenga okungenzeka sibhekane nakho ezinyangeni ezizayo.
Kusesekuseni kakhulu ukuthi ungafaka iNgqungquthela Yensimbi elandelayo ye-SMU ekhalendeni lakho.Ingqungquthela Yensimbi, umbuthano omkhulu waminyaka yonke wamafulethi nensimbi eNyakatho Melika, ihlelelwe u-Agasti 22-24 e-Atlanta.Ungafunda kabanzi mayelana nomcimbi lapha.
Ukuze uthole ulwazi olwengeziwe nge-SMU noma ukubhalisela ukubhalisa kwesivivinyo samahhala, sicela usithumele i-imeyili ku-info@steelmarketupdate.
I-FABRICATOR ingumagazini ohamba phambili eNyakatho Melika embonini yokwakhiwa kwensimbi.Lo magazini uhlinzeka ngezindaba, izihloko zezobuchwepheshe kanye nemilando yamacala eyenza abakhiqizi bakwazi ukwenza imisebenzi yabo ngendlela egculisayo.I-FABRICATOR ibisebenzela imboni kusukela ngo-1970.
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