Kupinda kweUkraine muchisimba zvinoreva kuti vatengi vesimbi vachafanira kutarisana nekushanduka-shanduka kwemitengo mumwedzi iri kuuya.Getty Images
Zvino zvinoita sekunge ma swans ese matema. Chekutanga idenda. Hondo ikozvino. Haudi Steel Market Update (SMU) kuti ikuyeuchidze nezvekutambura kunotyisa kwevanhu kwakakonzerwa nemunhu wese.
Ndakataura muhurukuro yangu paTampa Steel Conference pakati paKukadzi kuti izwi rekuti unprecedented rinoshandiswa zvakanyanya. Zvinosuwisa kuti ndakanganisa. Kugadzira zvinhu kungave kwakakunda dambudziko guru reCOVID-19, asi migumisiro yehondo muUkraine inogona kukanganisa misika sezvakaita denda iri.
Chii chiri kukanganisa mitengo yesimbi? Kana tichitarisa pane zvatakanyora kare kare — zvinoita sekunge zviri mune imwe galaxy izvozvi — mitengo iri kuderera nekukurumidza, asi zvine njodzi kunyora nezve chero chinhu nekutya kuti panguva inoburitswa chinyorwa chacho inenge yapera.
Izvi ndizvo zvazviriwo pari zvino - kunze kwekuti kuderera kwemutengo kunotsiviwa nemutengo uri kukwira. Kutanga kudivi rezvinhu zvakagadziriswa, ikozvino kudivi resimbi zvakare.
Musatende zvandinotaura. Ingobvunzai vagadziri vesimbi vekuEurope kana vekuTurkey kana vagadziri vemotokari zvavari kuona izvozvi: kushomeka uye kusashanda zvakanaka nekuda kwemitengo yakakwira yemagetsi kana kushomeka kwezvinhu zvekushandisa. Nemamwe mashoko, kuwanikwa kwezvinhu kuri kuva dambudziko guru, nepo mitengo muEurope neTurkey iri dambudziko rechipiri.
Tichaona kukanganiswa kuri kuitika kuNorth America, asi sezvakaita COVID, pane kunonoka zvishoma. Pamwe zvishoma nekuti cheni yedu yekutumira zvinhu haina kubatana neRussia neUkraine sezvairi neEurope.
Kutaura zvazviri, tatoona zvimwe zvezvipingamupinyi izvi. Pakatumirwa chinyorwa ichi pakati paKurume, mutengo wedu weHRC wazvino waive $1,050/t, wakakwira $50/t kubva pavhiki rapfuura uye wakadarika mwedzi mitanhatu yemitengo yakagadzikana kana kudonha kubva pakutanga kwaGunyana (ona Mufananidzo 1).
Chii chachinja? Nucor yakazivisa kukwira kwemutengo we $100 patani kutanga kwaKurume mushure mekuzivisa kukwira kwemutengo we $50 patani pakupera kwaKukadzi. Mamwe mafekitori akatevera pachena kana kuti chinyararire akakwidza mitengo pasina tsamba yepamutemo kuvatengi.
Panyaya dzezvinhu zvakati wandei, takanyora zvimwe zvinhu zvainge zvichiripo pamutengo wekare we$900/t usati wakwidzwa. Takatonzwa nezvezvimwe zvibvumirano - mauto eRussia asati apinda muUkraine - pa$800/t. Iye zvino tiri kuona purofiti itsva inosvika $1,200/t.
Ungawana sei mutengo wepakati pemadhora mazana matatu patani kusvika pamadhora mazana mana patani panguva imwe chete yekutenga? Musika mumwe chete wakaseka kukwira kwemutengo wemadhora makumi mashanu patani weCleveland-Cliffs musi wa21 Kukadzi wakatora sei Nucor zvakakomba mavhiki maviri gare gare?
Vagadziri vesimbi vanoita sevari kunakidzwa nemitengo yesimbi yakakwira, iyo yave iri kudzikira kubva munaGunyana, asi zvese izvi zvakachinja apo Russia yakarwisa Ukraine. Aguirre/Getty Images
Zvinosuwisa kuti mhinduro yemubvunzo uyu iri pachena: mauto eRussia akapinda muUkraine musi wa24 Kukadzi. Iye zvino tine hondo yakareba pakati penyika mbiri dzinokosha dzinogadzira simbi.
Imwe nzvimbo iri muchikamu chekutengesa zvinhu chakabatana cheUS, Russia neUkraine isimbi yenguruve. Makambani ekugadzira machira eEAF kuNorth America, seari muTurkey, anovimba zvakanyanya nesimbi yenguruve ine phosphorus shoma kubva kuUkraine neRussia. Imwe sarudzo chete yenguva pfupi ndeyeBrazil. Nekushomeka kwesimbi yenguruve, mitengo yakwira nekukurumidza zvekuti ndinozeza kutaura nhamba idzi pano sezvo dzichipera nekukurumidza.
Kutaura zvazviri, mutengo wesimbi yenguruve (neslab) wava kusvika pamutengo wesimbi yakagadzirwa. Kunewo kushomeka kwemaferroalloy, uye haisi mitengo yesimbi chete iri kukwira. Izvi zvinoshandawo kumitengo yemafuta, gasi nemagetsi.
Kana dziri nguva dzekutanga kutenga, dzakaderera kusvika pamavhiki asingasviki mana pakati paNdira. Dzakaramba dziripo kusvika Kukadzi uye dzakatanga kushanda zvakare kwemavhiki mana musi wa1 Kurume. Ndakanzwa nguva pfupi yadarika kuti mamwe mafekitori anga akavhurwa kwemavhiki mashanu. Handingashamisike kana nguva dzekutumira dzichiramba dzichiwedzera sezvo makambani achipinda mumusika zvakare kuzotenga. Hapana anoda kutenga kusvika musika wapera. Tasvika padanho iri mumavhiki mashoma apfuura uye rava kutanga kudzokororwa.
Sei ndichifanira kuva nechokwadi? Chekutanga, mitengo yeUS yabva pakakwirira kupfuura dzimwe nyika kusvika pakaderera. Zvakare, vanhu vazhinji vakarega kutenga zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika vachifunga kuti mitengo yemuno icharamba ichidzikira uye nguva yekutumira icharamba iri pfupi. Izvi zvinoreva kuti pamwe hapazovi nehuwandu hwakawanda hwezvinhu. Ko kana US ikatanga kutengesa simbi kunze kwenyika? Mwedzi wapfuura, ichi chaive chinhu chinonakidza kwenguva refu. Zvinokwanisika munguva pfupi ikozvino.
Chimwe chinhu chakanaka ndechekuti zvinhu zviri mudura hazvina kuderera sezvazvaive pakutanga kwedenda apo kudiwa kwakawedzera (ona Mufananidzo 2). Tabva pamazuva angangoita makumi matanhatu nemashanu pakupera kwegore rapfuura (akakwira) kusvika pamazuva angangoita makumi mashanu nemashanu munguva pfupi yapfuura. Asi izvozvo zvichiri pamusoro zvakanyanya pane zvekuwanikwa kwemazuva makumi mana kusvika makumi mashanu zvatakaona muhafu yekutanga yegore rapfuura. Yeuka, kana kuwanikwa kuri kwemazuva angangoita makumi mana kusvika makumi mana nemashanu, kuwanikwa kunova dambudziko rechipiri pamutengo - zvichikonzera kukwira kwemitengo yesimbi.
Saka mbundira zvinhu zvako. Zvingangokupa mukana wekuti ugadzirise dambudziko rekusagadzikana kwatingasangana nako mumwedzi iri kutevera.
Kwava kunonoka kuisa SMU Steel Summit inotevera pakarenda yako. Steel Summit, musangano mukuru wepagore wepagore we flat and steel muNorth America, wakarongerwa kubva Nyamavhuvhu 22 kusvika 24 muAtlanta. Unogona kudzidza zvakawanda nezvechiitiko ichi pano.
Kuti uwane rumwe ruzivo nezve SMU kana kunyoresa kuti unyorese mahara, ndapota tumira email ku info@steelmarketupdate.
FABRICATOR ndiyo magazini inotungamira muindasitiri yekugadzira nekugadzira simbi muNorth America. Magazini iyi inopa nhau, zvinyorwa zvehunyanzvi uye nhoroondo dzezviitiko zvinogonesa vagadziri kuita mabasa avo zvinobudirira. FABRICATOR yave ichishandira indasitiri iyi kubvira muna 1970.
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