Ukuhlaselwa kwe-Ukraine kuthetha ukuba abathengi bentsimbi kuya kufuneka bajongane nokuguquguquka okukhulu kwamaxabiso kwiinyanga ezizayo. Getty Images
Ngoku kubonakala ngathi zonke iiswans zimnyama. Eyokuqala yibhubhane. Yilwa ngoku. Awudingi uHlaziyo lweMarike yeNtsimbi (i-SMU) ukukukhumbuza ngentlungu eyoyikekayo yabantu ebangelwe ngumntu wonke.
Nditshilo kwintetho kwiNgqungquthela yeNsimbi yaseTampa phakathi kuFebruwari ukuba igama elithi uncameless lisetyenziswa ngokugqithisileyo. Ngelishwa, bendingachanekanga. Ukwenziwa kwemveliso kusenokwenzeka ukuba kuphumelele kakhulu kubhubhane we-COVID-19, kodwa iziphumo zemfazwe e-Ukraine zinokuchaphazela iimarike kanye njengobhubhane.
Iyintoni impembelelo kumaxabiso entsimbi? Xa ndijonga emva kwinto esiyibhalileyo kudala — kuvakala ngathi ikwenye igalaksi ngoku — amaxabiso ehla ngokukhawuleza, kodwa kuyingozi ukubhala ngayo nantoni na ngenxa yokoyika ukuba xa inqaku lipapashwa liphelelwe lixesha.
Kunjalo nangoku – ngaphandle kokuba ixabiso elihlayo lithatyathelw’ indawo lixabiso elinyukayo. Okokuqala kwicala lezinto eziluhlaza, ngoku nakwicala lentsimbi.
Musa ukundikholelwa. Buza nje abenzi bentsimbi okanye abenzi beemoto baseYurophu okanye baseTurkey ukuba babona ntoni ngoku: ukunqongophala kunye nokungahlali kakuhle ngenxa yeendleko eziphezulu zombane okanye ukunqongophala kokunikezelwa kwezixhobo ezisisiseko. Ngamanye amazwi, ukufumaneka kuya kuba yingxaki ephambili, ngelixa amaxabiso eYurophu naseTurkey eyinkxalabo yesibini.
Siza kubona impembelelo eMntla Melika, kodwa njengakwi-COVID, kukho ukulibaziseka okuncinci. Mhlawumbi kancinci kuba uthungelwano lwethu lokubonelela alunxulumananga neRashiya ne-Ukraine njengoko lunjalo neYurophu.
Enyanisweni, sele sizibonile ezinye zezi ziphumo zibalulekileyo. Xa eli nqaku lingeniswa phakathi kuMatshi, ixabiso lethu lamva nje le-HRC yayiyi-$1,050/t, linyuke nge-$50/t ukusuka kwiveki engaphambili kwaye liphule amaxabiso angaguqukiyo okanye awehlayo kwiinyanga ezi-6 ukusukela ekuqaleni kukaSeptemba (jonga uMfanekiso 1).
Yintoni etshintshileyo? I-Nucor ibhengeze ukunyuka kwexabiso le-$100/ton ekuqaleni kukaMatshi emva kokubhengeza ukunyuka kwakhona kwexabiso le-$50/ton ngasekupheleni kukaFebruwari. Ezinye iifektri zilandele esidlangalaleni okanye ngokuzolileyo zinyuse amaxabiso ngaphandle kweleta esemthethweni eya kubathengi.
Ngokweenkcukacha, sirekhode ezinye iintengiso ezihlala ixesha elide ngexabiso "elidala" ngaphambi kokunyusa eliyi-$900/t. Sivile nangezinye izivumelwano - ngaphambi kokuba imikhosi yaseRashiya ihlasele i-Ukraine - ezixabisa i-$800/t. Ngoku sibona inzuzo entsha efikelela kwi-$1,200/t.
Ungayifumana njani i-spread ye-$300/ton ukuya kwi-$400/ton kwiseshoni enye yamaxabiso? Imarike efanayo eyayigxeka ukunyuka kwexabiso leCleveland-Cliffs nge-$50/ton nge-21 kaFebruwari yayithatha njani iNucor nzulu emva kweeveki ezimbini?
Abenzi besinyithi babonakala benandipha ukunyuka kwamaxabiso esinyithi, nto leyo eye yabangela ukwehla ukusukela ngoSeptemba, kodwa konke oko kwatshintsha xa iRashiya yahlasela iUkraine. Imifanekiso ka-Aguirre/Getty
Ngelishwa, impendulo yalo mbuzo icacile kakhulu: imikhosi yaseRashiya yahlasela i-Ukraine nge-24 kaFebruwari. Ngoku sinemfazwe ende phakathi kwamazwe amabini abalulekileyo avelisa isinyithi.
Indawo enye kuthungelwano lokubonelela oludibeneyo lwase-US, eRashiya nase-Ukraine yintsimbi yehagu. Iifektri ze-EAF sheet eNorth America, njengalezo zaseTurkey, zixhomekeke kakhulu kwintsimbi yehagu ene-phosphorus ephantsi evela e-Ukraine naseRashiya. Olunye ukhetho olufutshane yiBrazil. Njengoko intsimbi yehagu inqongophele, amaxabiso anyuke ngokukhawuleza kangangokuba ndiyathandabuza ukukhankanya amanani apha njengoko ephelelwa lixesha phantse ngoko nangoko.
Enyanisweni, ixabiso lentsimbi yehagu (kunye neslab) lisondela kwelentsimbi egqityiweyo. Kukwakho nokunqongophala kwee-ferroalloys, kwaye ayingomaxabiso esinyithi kuphela anyukayo. Oku kunjalo nangamaxabiso eoyile, igesi kunye nombane.
Ngokuphathelele amaxesha okuqalisa, ehle aya kutsho ngaphantsi kweeveki ezi-4 phakathi kuJanuwari. Baqhubeka de kwangoFebruwari baza baphinda baqalisa kwakhona iiveki ezine ngoMatshi 1. Ndive kutshanje ukuba ezinye iifektri zivuliwe iiveki ezintlanu. Andiyi kumangaliswa ukuba amaxesha okuhambisa ayaqhubeka nokukhula njengoko iinkampani zingena kwakhona kwimarike ukuze zithenge. Akukho mntu ufuna ukuthenga de imakethi ifikelele esiphelweni. Sifikelele kweli nqanaba kwiiveki ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo kwaye iqala ukubuyela umva.
Kutheni ndingaqiniseka? Okokuqala, amaxabiso ase-US asuke kwelona liphezulu ehlabathini ukuya kwelona liphantsi. Kwakhona, abantu baye bayeka ukuthenga iimpahla ezingeniswayo becinga ukuba amaxabiso asekhaya aya kuqhubeka ehla kwaye amaxesha okuhambisa ahlala emafutshane. Oko kuthetha ukuba mhlawumbi akuyi kubakho sibonelelo singaphezulu. Kuthekani ukuba i-US ibiqala ukuthumela intsimbi kwamanye amazwe? Kwinyanga nje edlulileyo, le yayiyinto enomdla ekuhambeni kwexesha. Inokwenzeka kwixesha elifutshane ngoku.
Enye into esindisayo kukuba izinto ezisetyenzisiweyo azikho phantsi njengoko zazinjalo kwiintsuku zokuqala zobhubhane xa imfuno yayisanda (jonga uMfanekiso 2). Sisuke kwiintsuku ezingama-65 ekupheleni konyaka ophelileyo (eziphezulu) saya kwiintsuku ezingama-55 kutshanje. Kodwa oko kusephezulu kakhulu kunobonelelo lweentsuku ezingama-40 ukuya kwezingama-50 esilubonileyo kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka ophelileyo. Khumbula, xa ubonelelo lumalunga neentsuku ezingama-40 ukuya kwezingama-45, ukufumaneka kuba yingxaki yesibini kwixabiso - okubangela ukuba amaxabiso entsimbi anyuke.
Ngoko ke yibambise kakuhle impahla yakho. Oku kusenokukunika ithuba lokuthintela ukuguquguquka esinokujongana nako kwiinyanga ezizayo.
Kusekutsha kakhulu ukuba ubeke i-SMU Steel Summit elandelayo kwikhalenda yakho. I-Steel Summit, indibano enkulu yonyaka ye-flat and steel eMntla Melika, icwangciselwe umhla wama-22 ukuya kuma-24 ku-Agasti e-Atlanta. Ungafunda okungakumbi ngalo msitho apha.
Ukuze ufumane ulwazi oluthe kratya nge-SMU okanye ukubhalisela ubhaliso lwesilingo sasimahla, nceda uthumele i-imeyile ku-info@steelmarketupdate.
I-FABRICATOR yimagazini ephambili kushishino lokwenza nokuvelisa isinyithi eMntla Melika. Le magazini ibonelela ngeendaba, amanqaku obuchwephesha kunye nembali yamatyala evumela abavelisi ukuba benze imisebenzi yabo ngokufanelekileyo. I-FABRICATOR ibikhonza eli shishini ukusukela ngo-1970.
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