ʻO ke komo ʻana o Ukraine, ʻo ia hoʻi, e pono nā mea kūʻai kila e kū i ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai i nā mahina e hiki mai ana. Getty Images
I kēia manawa, me he mea lā ua ʻeleʻele nā ​​​​swan a pau. ʻO ka mua ka maʻi ahulau. Kaua i kēia manawa. ʻAʻole pono ʻoe i ka Steel Market Update (SMU) e hoʻomanaʻo iā ʻoe i ka ʻeha weliweli o ke kanaka i hoʻokumu ʻia e nā mea a pau.
Ua ʻōlelo au ma kahi hōʻike ma ka Tampa Steel Conference i waena o Pepeluali ua hoʻohana nui ʻia ka huaʻōlelo unprecedented. ʻO ka mea pōʻino, ua hewa wau. Ua pale aku paha ka hana ʻana i ka ʻino loa o ka maʻi ahulau COVID-19, akā hiki i nā hopena o ke kaua ma Ukraine ke pā i nā mākeke e like me ka maʻi ahulau.
He aha ka hopena i nā kumukūʻai kila? Ke nānā nei i hope i kahi mea a mākou i kākau ai i kekahi manawa i hala aku nei - me he mea lā aia ia ma kahi hōkū ʻē aʻe i kēia manawa - ke hāʻule wikiwiki nei nā kumukūʻai, akā he mea weliweli ke kākau e pili ana i kekahi mea no ka makaʻu i ka wā e paʻi ʻia ai ka ʻatikala ua pau ia i ka lā.
Pēlā nō hoʻi i kēia manawa - koe wale nō ka hoʻololi ʻia ʻana o ke kumukūʻai hāʻule e ke kumukūʻai piʻi. ʻO ka mua ma ka ʻaoʻao mea maka, i kēia manawa ma ka ʻaoʻao kila.
Mai lawe wale i kaʻu ʻōlelo no ia mea. E nīnau wale i nā mea hana kila a i ʻole nā ​​​​mea hana kaʻa ʻEulopa a Tureke paha i kā lākou ʻike i kēia manawa: nā hemahema a me ka hana ʻole ʻana ma muli o ke kumukūʻai uila kiʻekiʻe loa a i ʻole ka nele o ka lako o nā mea kumu. I nā huaʻōlelo ʻē aʻe, ke lilo nei ka loaʻa ʻana i mea hopohopo nui, ʻoiai ke kumukūʻai ma ʻEulopa a me Turkey he mea hopohopo lua.
E ʻike mākou i ka hopena ma ʻAmelika ʻĀkau, akā e like me COVID, aia kahi lohi iki. Malia paha i kahi liʻiliʻi no ka mea ʻaʻole pili loa kā mākou kaulahao lako me Rusia a me Ukraine e like me ia me ʻEulopa.
ʻOiaʻiʻo, ua ʻike mua mākou i kekahi o kēia mau hopena kīkēkē. I ka wā i waiho ʻia ai kēia ʻatikala i ka waena o Malaki, ʻo kā mākou kumukūʻai HRC hou loa he $1,050/t, i piʻi aʻe he $50/t mai ka pule ma mua a ua uhaki i kahi holo 6 mahina o nā kumukūʻai palahalaha a hāʻule paha mai ka hoʻomaka ʻana o Kepakemapa (e ʻike i ke Kiʻi 1).
He aha ka mea i loli? Ua hoʻolaha ʻo Nucor i ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o ke kumukūʻai o $100/tona i ka hoʻomaka o Malaki ma hope o ka hoʻolaha ʻana i kahi hoʻonui ʻē aʻe o $50/tona i ka hopena o Pepeluali. Ua hahai nā hale wili ʻē aʻe i ka lehulehu a i ʻole ua hoʻokiʻekiʻe mālie i nā kumukūʻai me ka ʻole o kahi leka kūhelu i nā mea kūʻai aku.
Ma ke ʻano o nā kikoʻī, ua hoʻopaʻa inoa mākou i kekahi mau kālepa e kali ana ma ke kumukūʻai "kahiko" ma mua o ka hoʻokiʻekiʻe ʻana o $900/t. Ua lohe mākou i kekahi mau ʻaelike - ma mua o ka hoʻouka kaua ʻana o nā pūʻali koa Lūkini ma Ukraine - ma $800/t. Ke ʻike nei mākou i nā loaʻa hou e like me $1,200/t.
Pehea e hiki ai iā ʻoe ke loaʻa kahi pālahalaha o $300/ton a i $400/ton i hoʻokahi kau kumukūʻai? Pehea lā i lawe koʻikoʻi ai ka mākeke like i hoʻohenehene i ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai o Cleveland-Cliffs he $50/ton ma Pepeluali 21 iā Nucor i ʻelua pule ma hope?
Me he mea lā ke hauʻoli nei nā mea hana metala i kahi haki ʻana o nā kumukūʻai kila, kahi i emi iho i lalo mai Kepakemapa, akā ua loli kēlā mau mea a pau i ka wā i hoʻouka kaua ai ʻo Rusia iā Ukraine. Aguirre/Getty Images
ʻO ka mea pōʻino, ua maopopo loa ka pane i kēia nīnau: ua hoʻouka kaua nā pūʻali koa Lūkini iā ​​Ukraine ma Pepeluali 24. I kēia manawa, he kaua lōʻihi ko mākou ma waena o ʻelua mau lāhui hana kila koʻikoʻi.
ʻO kahi wahi i loko o ke kaulahao lako pili loa o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, Rusia a me Ukraine ʻo ia ka hao puaʻa. ʻO nā wili pepa EAF ma ʻAmelika ʻĀkau, e like me nā mea ma Turkey, hilinaʻi nui lākou i ka hao puaʻa haʻahaʻa-phosphorus mai Ukraine a me Rusia. ʻO ke koho pōkole ʻē aʻe ʻo Brazil. Me ka nele o ka hao puaʻa, ua piʻi wikiwiki nā kumukūʻai a kānalua wau e haʻi i nā helu ma aneʻi no ka mea ua lilo koke lākou i mea kahiko.
ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ke kokoke nei ke kumukūʻai o ka hao puaʻa (a me ka papa) i ke kila i hoʻopau ʻia. Aia kekahi hemahema o nā ferroalloys, ʻaʻole wale nā ​​​​kumukūʻai metala e piʻi nei. Pēlā nō hoʻi no nā kumukūʻai o ka ʻaila, ke kinoea a me ka uila.
No nā manawa alakaʻi, ua hāʻule lākou i lalo o 4 mau pule i waena o Ianuali. Ua paʻa lākou a hiki i Pepeluali a ua puka hou no ʻehā pule ma Malaki 1. Ua lohe au i kēia manawa ua wehe ʻia kekahi mau hale hana no ʻelima pule. ʻAʻole au e kahaha inā e hoʻomau ka manawa hāʻawi i ka hoʻolōʻihi ʻana i ka wā e komo hou ai nā hui i ka mākeke e kūʻai. ʻAʻohe mea makemake e kūʻai a hiki i ka emi ʻana o ka mākeke. Ua hōʻea mākou i kēia pae i nā pule i hala iho nei a ke hoʻomaka nei e hoʻi hou.
No ke aha e hiki ai iaʻu ke maopopo? ʻO ka mea mua, ua piʻi nā kumukūʻai o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa mai ke kiʻekiʻe loa o ka honua a i ka haʻahaʻa loa. Eia kekahi, ua hoʻōki ka hapa nui o ka poʻe i ke kūʻai ʻana i nā waiwai i lawe ʻia mai ma ke manaʻo e hoʻomau ka hāʻule ʻana o nā kumukūʻai kūloko a e pōkole nā ​​​​manawa hoʻouna. ʻO ia hoʻi, ʻaʻole paha e nui ka lako keu. Pehea inā hoʻomaka ka US e hoʻokuʻu aku i ke kila? I hoʻokahi mahina i hala aku nei, he mea hoihoi kēia i ka wā lōʻihi. He hiki nō ia i ka wā pōkole i kēia manawa.
ʻO kahi lokomaikaʻi hoʻopakele, ʻaʻole i haʻahaʻa nā waihona e like me nā lā mua o ka maʻi ahulau i ka wā i piʻi ai ke koi (e nānā i ke Kiʻi 2). Ua hele mākou mai kahi o 65 mau lā i ka hopena o ka makahiki i hala (kiʻekiʻe) a i kahi o 55 mau lā i hala koke aku nei. Akā ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe o kēlā ma mua o ka lako 40- a 50-lā a mākou i ʻike ai i ka hapa mua o ka makahiki i hala. E hoʻomanaʻo, i ka wā e kokoke ana ka lako ma kahi o 40 a 45 mau lā, lilo ka loaʻa ʻana i mea lua no ke kumukūʻai - e hoʻonui ana i nā kumukūʻai kila.
No laila, e ʻapo nui i kāu waihona. Hiki paha iā ia ke hāʻawi iā ʻoe i kahi pale manawa pōkole e kūʻē i ka haʻalulu a mākou e kū nei i nā mahina e hiki mai ana.
He mea hikiwawe loa ke kau i ka SMU Steel Summit e hiki mai ana ma kāu kalena. ʻO ka Steel Summit, ka ʻaha kūkā pālahalaha a me ke kila nui loa o ʻAmelika ʻĀkau, ua hoʻonohonoho ʻia no ʻAukake 22-24 ma Atlanta. Hiki iā ʻoe ke aʻo hou aʻe e pili ana i ka hanana ma aneʻi.
No ka ʻike hou aku e pili ana iā SMU a i ʻole e kau inoa no kahi kau inoa hoʻāʻo manuahi, e ʻoluʻolu e leka uila iā info@steelmarketupdate.
ʻO FABRICATOR ka makasina alakaʻi o ka ʻoihana hana metala a me ka hana ʻana ma ʻAmelika ʻĀkau. Hāʻawi ka makasina i nā nūhou, nā ʻatikala loea a me nā moʻolelo hihia e hiki ai i nā mea hana ke hana i kā lākou mau hana me ka ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi. Ke lawelawe nei ʻo FABRICATOR i ka ʻoihana mai ka makahiki 1970.
I kēia manawa me ke komo piha ʻana i ka paʻi kikohoʻe o The FABRICATOR, komo maʻalahi i nā kumuwaiwai ʻoihana waiwai nui.
Ua hiki ke loaʻa piha ʻia ka paʻi kikohoʻe o The Tube & Pipe Journal i kēia manawa, e hāʻawi ana i ke komo maʻalahi i nā kumuwaiwai waiwai o ka ʻoihana.
E hauʻoli i ke komo piha ʻana i ka paʻi kikohoʻe o STAMPING Journal, kahi e hāʻawi ai i nā holomua ʻenehana hou loa, nā hana maikaʻi loa a me nā nūhou ʻoihana no ka mākeke sila metala.
I kēia manawa me ke komo piha ʻana i ka paʻi kikohoʻe o The Fabricator en Español, komo maʻalahi i nā kumuwaiwai waiwai nui o ka ʻoihana.