Mamayar da aka yi wa Ukraine na nufin masu sayen ƙarfe za su fuskanci matsalar hauhawar farashi a cikin watanni masu zuwa.Getty Images
Yanzu da alama duk swans baƙi ne. Na farko shine annoba. Yaƙi yanzu. Ba kwa buƙatar Sabunta Kasuwar Karfe (SMU) don tunatar da ku mummunan wahalar ɗan adam da kowa ya jawo.
Na faɗa a wani gabatarwa a taron Tampa Steel a tsakiyar watan Fabrairu cewa kalmar da ba a taɓa gani ba ta yi amfani da ita fiye da kima. Abin takaici, na yi kuskure. Masana'antu na iya shawo kan mafi munin annobar COVID-19, amma tasirin yaƙin Ukraine na iya shafar kasuwanni kamar yadda annobar ta shafi duniya.
Menene tasirin farashin ƙarfe? Idan muka waiwayi wani abu da muka rubuta a baya - kamar yana cikin wani tarin taurari a yanzu - farashin yana raguwa da sauri, amma yana da haɗari a rubuta game da komai saboda tsoro cewa lokacin da aka buga labarin ya tsufa.
Haka lamarin yake yanzu - sai dai farashin da ke faɗuwa ya maye gurbinsa da hauhawar farashi. Da farko a ɓangaren kayan masarufi, yanzu kuma a ɓangaren ƙarfe.
Kada ka yarda da maganar da na faɗa. Kawai ka tambayi masana'antun ƙarfe na Turai ko na Turkiyya ko masana'antun motoci abin da suke gani yanzu: ƙarancin aiki da rashin aiki saboda tsadar wutar lantarki ko ƙarancin kayan aiki. A takaice dai, samuwa na zama babban abin damuwa, yayin da farashi a Turai da Turkiyya ke zama babban abin damuwa.
Za mu ga tasirin da zai yi a Arewacin Amurka, amma kamar yadda yake a COVID, akwai ɗan jinkiri. Wataƙila kaɗan ne saboda tsarin samar da kayayyaki bai yi kama da na Rasha da Ukraine ba kamar yadda yake a Turai.
A gaskiya ma, mun riga mun ga wasu daga cikin waɗannan tasirin da aka samu. Lokacin da aka gabatar da wannan labarin a tsakiyar watan Maris, sabon farashin HRC ɗinmu shine $1,050/t, wanda ya haura $50/t idan aka kwatanta da mako guda da ya gabata kuma ya karya farashin watanni 6 na rashin daidaito ko faɗuwa tun farkon jerin Satumba (duba Hoto na 1).
Me ya canza? Nucor ya sanar da ƙarin farashi na $100/ton a farkon Maris bayan ya sanar da wani ƙarin farashi na $50/ton a ƙarshen Fabrairu. Sauran masana'antun sun biyo bayan hauhawar farashi a bainar jama'a ko kuma a hankali ba tare da wata wasiƙa ga abokan ciniki ba.
Dangane da takamaiman bayanai, mun yi rikodin wasu ciniki na dogon lokaci a farashin "tsohon" kafin a ƙara farashi na $900/t. Mun ma ji labarin wasu yarjejeniyoyi - kafin sojojin Rasha su mamaye Ukraine - akan $800/t. Yanzu muna ganin sabbin riba har zuwa $1,200/t.
Ta yaya za ku iya samun faɗuwar dala $300/tan zuwa $400/tan a cikin zaman farashi ɗaya? Ta yaya kasuwar da ta yi ba'a ga hauhawar farashin dala $50/tan na Cleveland-Cliffs a ranar 21 ga Fabrairu ta ɗauki Nucor da muhimmanci makonni biyu bayan haka?
Da alama masu yin ƙarfe suna jin daɗin faɗuwar farashin ƙarfe, wanda ya kasance yana raguwa tun watan Satumba, amma duk hakan ya canza lokacin da Rasha ta mamaye Ukraine. Aguirre/Getty Images
Abin takaici, amsar wannan tambayar a bayyane take: sojojin Rasha sun mamaye Ukraine a ranar 24 ga Fabrairu. Yanzu muna da dogon yaƙi tsakanin aƙalla ƙasashe biyu masu muhimmanci da ke samar da ƙarfe.
Wuri ɗaya a cikin sarkar samar da kayayyaki ta Amurka, Rasha da Ukraine da ke da alaƙa da juna shine ƙarfen alade. Masana'antar sarrafa takarda ta EAF a Arewacin Amurka, kamar waɗanda ke Turkiyya, sun dogara sosai akan ƙarfen alade mai ƙarancin phosphorus daga Ukraine da Rasha. Wani zaɓi na ɗan lokaci kaɗan shine Brazil. Ganin ƙarancin ƙarfen alade, farashi ya tashi da sauri har na yi jinkirin ambaton alkaluman a nan yayin da suka tsufa kusan nan take.
A gaskiya ma, farashin ƙarfen alade (da kuma farantin ƙarfe) yana kusantowa da na ƙarfe da aka gama. Akwai kuma ƙarancin ferroalloys, kuma ba kawai farashin ƙarfe ne ke ƙaruwa ba. Haka yake ga farashin mai, iskar gas da wutar lantarki.
Dangane da lokacin da ake amfani da shi wajen samar da kayayyaki, sun ragu zuwa ƙasa da makonni 4 a tsakiyar Janairu. Sun dage har zuwa Fabrairu kuma sun sake bunƙasa na tsawon makonni huɗu a ranar 1 ga Maris. Kwanan nan na ji cewa wasu masana'antu sun buɗe na tsawon makonni biyar. Ba zan yi mamaki ba idan lokacin isar da kayayyaki ya ci gaba da ƙaruwa yayin da kamfanoni ke sake shiga kasuwa don siye. Babu wanda ke son siye har sai kasuwa ta ƙare. Mun kai wannan matakin a cikin 'yan makonnin da suka gabata kuma ya fara farfadowa.
Me yasa zan iya tabbata? Da farko, farashin Amurka ya tashi daga mafi girma a duniya zuwa mafi ƙasƙanci. Haka kuma, mutane galibi sun daina siyan kayan da aka shigo da su daga ƙasashen waje bisa tsammanin cewa farashin cikin gida zai ci gaba da faɗuwa kuma lokacin isarwa ya kasance kaɗan. Wannan yana nufin wataƙila ba za a sami ƙarin wadata ba. Me zai faru idan Amurka ta fara fitar da ƙarfe? Wata guda da ya wuce, wannan abu ne mai ban sha'awa a cikin dogon lokaci. Hakika zai yiwu a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci yanzu.
Wani abin da zai cece mu shi ne cewa kayayyakin da aka tara ba su yi ƙasa kamar yadda suke a farkon lokacin annobar ba lokacin da buƙata ta ƙaru (duba Hoto na 2). Mun tashi daga kimanin kwanaki 65 a ƙarshen shekarar da ta gabata (mafi girma) zuwa kimanin kwanaki 55 kwanan nan. Amma wannan har yanzu ya fi yawa fiye da wadatar kwanaki 40 zuwa 50 da muka gani a rabin farko na shekarar da ta gabata. Ku tuna, lokacin da wadatar ta kai kimanin kwanaki 40 zuwa 45, wadatar ta zama matsala ta biyu ga farashi - wanda ke haifar da hauhawar farashin ƙarfe.
Don haka ka rungume kayanka sosai. Zai iya ba ka kariya ta wucin gadi daga canjin da za mu iya fuskanta a cikin watanni masu zuwa.
Ya yi wuri da za a sanya taron SMU Steel Summit na gaba a kalandarku. An shirya taron Karfe, babban taron shekara-shekara na filaye da ƙarfe na Arewacin Amurka, a ranakun 22-24 ga Agusta a Atlanta. Kuna iya ƙarin koyo game da taron a nan.
Don ƙarin bayani game da SMU ko don yin rajista don biyan kuɗi kyauta na gwaji, da fatan za a aika imel zuwa info@steelmarketupdate.
FABRICATOR ita ce babbar mujallar masana'antar kera ƙarfe da ƙera ƙarfe a Arewacin Amurka. Mujallar tana ba da labarai, labaran fasaha da tarihin shari'o'i waɗanda ke ba masana'antun damar yin ayyukansu yadda ya kamata. FABRICATOR tana yi wa masana'antar hidima tun daga shekarar 1970.
Yanzu da cikakken damar shiga bugu na dijital na The FABRICATOR, samun damar samun albarkatun masana'antu masu mahimmanci cikin sauƙi.
Bugun dijital na Jaridar The Tube & Pipe yanzu ya zama cikakke, wanda ke ba da damar samun albarkatu masu mahimmanci a masana'antu cikin sauƙi.
Ji daɗin cikakken damar shiga bugu na dijital na STAMPING Journal, wanda ke ba da sabbin ci gaban fasaha, mafi kyawun ayyuka da labaran masana'antu don kasuwar tambarin ƙarfe.
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