Yunkurin mamaye Ukraine yana nufin masu siyan karafa za su fuskanci rashin daidaituwar farashin a cikin watanni masu zuwa. Hotunan Getty
Yanzu da alama duk swans baƙar fata ne. Na farko shine annoba. Yaƙi yanzu. Ba kwa buƙatar Sabunta Kasuwar Karfe (SMU) don tunatar da ku mummunan wahalar ɗan adam da kowa ya haifar.
Na ce a cikin gabatarwa a taron Tampa Karfe a tsakiyar watan Fabrairu cewa kalmar da ba a taɓa gani ba an yi amfani da ita sosai. Abin takaici, na yi kuskure. Ƙirar masana'antu na iya zama mafi muni na cutar ta COVID-19, amma sakamakon yakin da ake yi a Ukraine zai iya kaiwa kasuwanni kamar yadda cutar ta faru.
Menene tasiri akan farashin karfe? Duba baya ga wani abu da muka rubuta a baya - yana jin kamar yana cikin wani galaxy a yanzu - farashin yana raguwa da sauri, amma yana da haɗari don rubuta game da wani abu saboda tsoro cewa a lokacin da aka buga labarin ya ƙare.
Hakanan gaskiya ne a yanzu - sai dai an maye gurbin farashin faɗuwa da hauhawar farashin. Na farko a gefen albarkatun ƙasa, yanzu kuma a gefen karfe.
Kada ku ɗauki maganata. Kawai ku tambayi masu kera karafa na Turai ko Turkiyya ko masu kera motoci abin da suke gani a yanzu: ƙarancin kuɗi da rashin aiki saboda tsadar wutar lantarki ko ƙarancin wadatar kayan yau da kullun. Ma'ana, samuwa yana zama abin damuwa na farko, yayin da farashin farashi a Turai da Turkiyya shine damuwa na biyu.
Za mu ga tasirin a Arewacin Amurka, amma kamar yadda yake tare da COVID, akwai ɗan raguwa.Wataƙila zuwa ƙarami saboda sarkar samar da mu ba ta da alaƙa da Rasha da Ukraine kamar yadda yake da Turai.
A gaskiya ma, mun riga mun ga wasu daga cikin waɗannan tasirin ƙwanƙwasa. Lokacin da aka ƙaddamar da wannan labarin a tsakiyar Maris, sabon farashin mu na HRC ya kasance $ 1,050 / t, sama da $ 50 / t daga mako daya a baya kuma ya karya farashin watanni 6 na lebur ko faduwar farashin tun farkon watan Satumba (duba Hoto 1).
Menene ya canza? Nucor ya sanar da karuwar farashin $ 100 / ton a farkon Maris bayan ya sanar da wani karin farashin $ 50 / ton a ƙarshen Fabrairu. Wasu masana'antun ko dai sun biyo baya a fili ko kuma sun tayar da farashin ba tare da wani wasiƙar wasiƙa ga abokan ciniki ba.
Dangane da ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun bayanai, mun rubuta wasu kasuwancin da ke daɗe a farashin "tsohuwar" da aka riga aka tara na $ 900 / t. Har ma mun ji wasu yarjejeniyoyin - kafin sojojin Rasha su mamaye Ukraine - a $ 800 / t. Yanzu muna ganin sabbin nasarori kamar $ 1,200 / t.
Ta yaya za ku iya samun $300/ton zuwa $400/ton yadawa a cikin zaman farashi guda ɗaya?Ta yaya wannan kasuwar da ta yi ba'a a farashi na Cleveland-Cliffs' $50/ton farashi a ranar 21 ga Fabrairu ya ɗauki Nucor da gaske bayan makonni biyu?
Masu kera karafa da alama suna jin daɗin karyewar farashin karafa, wanda ke kan koma baya tun watan Satumba, amma duk ya canza lokacin da Rasha ta mamaye Ukraine.Aguirre/Getty Images
Abin baƙin ciki shine, amsar wannan tambaya a bayyane take: Sojojin Rasha sun mamaye Ukraine a ranar 24 ga Fabrairu. Yanzu muna da dogon yaƙi tsakanin aƙalla muhimman ƙasashe biyu masu samar da ƙarfe.
Wani wuri a cikin sarkar samar da kayayyaki na Amurka, Rasha da Ukraine shine ƙarfe na alade. Injin EAF a Arewacin Amurka, kamar waɗanda ke cikin Turkiyya, sun dogara da ƙarfe mai ƙarancin fosphorus daga Ukraine da Rasha. Wani zaɓi na kusa kusa da shi shine Brazil.
A gaskiya ma, farashin ƙarfe na alade (da slab) yana gabatowa na ƙarfe da aka gama. Akwai kuma ƙarancin ferroalloys, kuma ba kawai farashin karfe ke tashi ba. Haka ke kan farashin man fetur, gas da wutar lantarki.
Amma game da lokacin gubar, sun ragu zuwa kasa da makonni 4 a tsakiyar watan Janairu. Sun ci gaba har zuwa Fabrairu kuma sun sake fashewa har tsawon makonni hudu a ranar Maris 1. Na ji kwanan nan cewa wasu masana'antu sun bude har tsawon makonni biyar. Ba zan yi mamaki ba idan lokutan bayarwa ya ci gaba da fadada yayin da kamfanoni suka sake shiga kasuwa don saya. Babu wanda yake so ya saya har sai kasuwar ta fadi. Mun isa wannan matakin a kan makonni biyar da suka gabata.
Me yasa zan iya tabbatarwa? Na farko, farashin Amurka ya tashi daga mafi girma a duniya zuwa mafi ƙasƙanci. Har ila yau, mutane sun daina sayen kayan da aka shigo da su a kan zaton cewa farashin gida zai ci gaba da faduwa kuma lokutan bayarwa ya ragu. Wannan yana nufin akwai yiwuwar ba za a sami karin wadata ba. Menene idan Amurka ta fara fitar da karfe? Wata daya da ya wuce, wannan abu ne mai ban sha'awa a cikin gajeren lokaci a cikin dogon lokaci.
Ɗaya daga cikin alherin ceto shine cewa kayayyaki ba su da ƙasa kamar yadda suke a farkon lokacin annoba lokacin da ake buƙatar buƙatun (duba Figure 2).Mun tafi daga kimanin kwanaki 65 a karshen shekarar da ta gabata (high) zuwa kimanin kwanaki 55 kwanan nan. farashin zuwa karu.
Don haka ba kayan aikinku babban runguma. Yana iya aƙalla ya ba ku maƙasudin wucin gadi dangane da sauyin da za mu iya fuskanta a cikin watanni masu zuwa.
Ya yi da wuri don sanya taron koli na SMU na gaba a kalandar ku. Taron Karfe, babban taro na shekara-shekara da karafa na Arewacin Amurka, an shirya shi don Agusta 22-24 a Atlanta. Kuna iya ƙarin koyo game da taron a nan.
Don ƙarin bayani kan SMU ko don yin rajista don biyan kuɗin gwaji na kyauta, da fatan za a yi imel info@steelmarketupdate.
FABRICATOR ita ce babbar mujallar masana'antar kere kere ta Arewacin Amurka.Mujallar tana ba da labarai, labarai na fasaha da tarihin shari'a waɗanda ke ba masana'antun damar yin ayyukansu da inganci.FABRICATOR yana hidimar masana'antar tun 1970.
Yanzu tare da cikakken damar yin amfani da bugu na dijital na The FABRICATOR, sauƙin samun dama ga albarkatun masana'antu masu mahimmanci.
Buga na dijital na The Tube & Pipe Journal yanzu yana da cikakkiyar dama, yana ba da sauƙi ga albarkatun masana'antu masu mahimmanci.
Ji daɗin cikakken damar yin amfani da bugu na dijital na Jaridar STAMPING, wanda ke ba da sabbin ci gaban fasaha, mafi kyawun ayyuka da labarai na masana'antu don kasuwar tallan ƙarfe.
Yanzu tare da cikakken damar yin amfani da bugu na dijital na The Fabricator en Español, sauƙin samun dama ga albarkatun masana'antu masu mahimmanci.