Ngenyanga edlule, i-MetalMiner ikhiphe isitatimende esilandelayo: “I-MetalMiner ikholelwa ukuthi umthelela enhlanganweni yokuthenga insimbi ye-Grain Oriented Electric ngeke ubonise ngokugcwele umthelela obanzi wentela ezinhlotsheni zensimbi ezisetshenziswa njalo, ama-alloy kanye nama-grade.”
Asihlali sikuqonda kahle, kodwa empeleni intengo ye-GOES M3 yehlile ngenyanga edlule uma kuqhathaniswa nokwenyuka kwentengo iyonke kuzo zonke noma cishe zonke ezinye izigaba zemikhiqizo egoqwe nge-carbon flat rolled.
Okwamanje, yize iMetalMiner iyazi ngenhlangano eyodwa yokuthenga efake isicelo sokukhishwa ngenqubo yokukhishwa esanda kumenyezelwa, ayikho inkampani efake isicelo (okungenani kusukela ngo-Ephreli 11). Lokhu kuzoshintsha njengoba ukungeniswa kwe-GOES kuqhubeka nokuza.
Ukusesha okusheshayo kukhombisa ukuthi uphenyo lwe-301 luhlanganisa nezinsimbi zikagesi eziqondiswe kokusanhlamvu ezinamakhodi e-HTS: 72261110, 72261190, 72261910 kanye no-72261990 – ngokuyisisekelo “izinsimbi zikagesi ze-silicon ezihlanganisiwe ezinobubanzi obuhlukahlukene (eziqondiswe kokusanhlamvu)”.
Kodwa-ke, uphenyo lweSigaba 301 alubandakanyi izingxenye ze-transformer (8504.90.9546) noma ama-wound cores (8504.90.9542), zombili ezingangena e-United States ngokusekelwe ekuphathweni kwemakethe kwamanje.
I-MetalMiner izokwazisa abafundi uma/uma uMongameli uTrump enza isimemezelo mayelana nophenyo lweSigaba 301.
Amanani entengo yensimbi kagesi eqondiswe kokusanhlamvu (GOES) yase-US ehle yaya ku-$2,595/t kule nyanga isuka ku-$2,637/t. I-MMI yehle ngamaphuzu amathathu yaya ku-188.
I-GOES MMI® iqoqa futhi ilinganise iphuzu elilodwa lentengo yensimbi kagesi eqondiswe kokusanhlamvu emhlabeni wonke ukuze inikeze umbono oyingqayizivele ngezitayela zamanani zezinsuku ezingu-30. Ukuze uthole ulwazi olwengeziwe nge-GOES MMI®, ukuthi ibalwa kanjani, noma ukuthi inkampani yakho isebenzisa kanjani inkomba, sithumele umugqa ku-info (at) agmetalminer (dot) com.
I-MMI engagqwali (Monthly Metals Index) ikhuphuke ngephuzu eli-1 ngo-Ephreli. Ukufundwa kwamanje kungamaphuzu angu-76.
Ukwenyuka kwezindleko ezengeziwe zensimbi engagqwali kukhuphule inkomba naphezu kokwehla okuncane kwamanani e-nickel e-LME kule nyanga. Ezinye izinsimbi ezihlobene nazo zikhuphuke kubhasikidi wensimbi engagqwali.
Amanani e-nickel e-LME ehle kanye nezinye izinsimbi eziyisisekelo ngoMashi. Kodwa-ke, ukwehla akubonakali kukhulu njenge-aluminium noma ithusi.
Amanani e-nickel ku-LME asalokhu ephakanyisiwe, okuhlukile kakhulu ekwehleni okuphansi kuka-2017 okwabonwa ngoMeyi noma ngoJuni, lapho i-MetalMiner yeluleka amaqembu okuthenga ukuthi athenge ivolumu ethile engaphambili. Intengo yayicishe ibe ngu-$8,800/t ngaleso sikhathi, uma kuqhathaniswa nezinga lamanje lentengo elingu-$13,200/t.
Ngemva kokubuyiselwa kwamandla e-kinetic ensimbi engagqwali, izindleko ezengeziwe zensimbi engagqwali zasekhaya zikhuphukile kule nyanga.
Inkokhelo eyengeziwe ye-NAS yekhoyili engu-316/316L efika ku-$0.96/lb. Ngakho-ke, izinhlangano ezithengayo zingase zifune ukubheka izimali ezengeziwe ukuze zithole amathuba okunciphisa ubungozi bentengo ngokuthenga kwangaphambili noma ukuvimba.
Izinga lokwenyuka kwezindleko ezengeziwe zensimbi engagqwali libonakala lehlile kule nyanga. Kodwa-ke, kusukela ngo-2017, izindleko ezengeziwe zikhuphukile. Izindleko ezengeziwe ze-NAS ze-coil engu-316/316L zisondela ku-$0.96/lb.
Njengoba insimbi ne-nickel kusesemakethe yenkunzi, amaqembu abathengi angase afune ukubheka emakethe amathuba okuthenga idiphu.
Ukuze ufunde ukuthi ungalivumelanisa kanjani isu lakho lokuthenga njalo ngenyanga nezidingo zakho ezithile, zama i-outlook yethu yanyanga zonke mahhala namuhla.
Amanani e-stainless coil yaseShayina angu-304 akhuphuke ngo-1.48%, kanti amanani e-stainless coil yaseShayina angu-316 ehle ngo-0.67%. Amanani e-ferrochrome yaseShayina ehle ngo-5.52% kule nyanga afinyelela ku-$1,998/t. Amanani e-nickel nawo ehle ngo-1.77% afinyelela ku-$13,300/t.
I-MMI yensimbi eluhlaza (inkomba yensimbi yanyanga zonke) yehle ngamaphuzu ama-4 kule nyanga yaya ku-88. Naphezu kokwehla kwe-MMI yensimbi eluhlaza, umfutho wentengo yensimbi yasekhaya ubulokhu wehla kulo lonke uMashi. Amanani emikhiqizo emikhulu yensimbi eyisicaba afinyelele phezulu eminyakeni eyisikhombisa.
Amanani ensimbi yasekhaya akhuphuke kakhulu, njengoba amanani e-HRC yasekhaya enyuke kusukela ku-$600-$650/st kuya cishe ku-$850 ezinyangeni ezintathu ezedlule.
Ukwenyuka kwentengo yensimbi kuwumphumela wezinto eziningi. Okokuqala, umkhuba wesikhathi eside owaqala ngo-2016 waholela emananini ensimbi aphezulu. Okwesibili, ukujikeleza kwemboni yensimbi okubambezelekile (ukuguquguquka kwesizini) kwandisa ukuthambekela kwentengo yensimbi.
Ngokomlando, amanani avame ukukhuphuka kwikota yesine njengoba izinkampani eziningi zixoxisana ngezivumelwano zazo zonyaka ngesikhathi sesabelomali sonyaka ozayo. Kodwa-ke, ukukhuphuka kwamanani ensimbi kulo nyaka akuzange kwenzeke kwaze kwaba kamuva. Amanani abonakala elinde umphumela weSigaba 232 (kanye nentela ehambisanayo), esisekela amanani ensimbi yasekhaya.
Kodwa-ke, amanani ensimbi yasekhaya abonakala esesondele ekupheleni kokwenyuka kwamanani kwakamuva. Ngokusekelwe emijikelezweni yentengo yensimbi yomlando, amanani entengo ensimbi yaseShayina aphansi kanye namanani entengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa aphansi, amanani ensimbi yasekhaya cishe azokwehla ezinyangeni ezizayo.
Amanani ensimbi yaseShayina kanye namanani ensimbi yase-US avame ukuthengiswa ndawonye. Kodwa-ke, izitayela zesikhashana ngezinye izikhathi ziyahlukahluka kancane.
Imikhuba yesikhathi esifushane ingabangelwa ukungaqiniseki kwendawo noma ukuphazamiseka okungazelelwe kokutholakala kwendawo. Kodwa le mikhuba yesikhathi esifushane ivame ukulungisa futhi ibuyele emaphethini ayo omlando.
Uma kuqhathaniswa amanani aseShayina nawase-US HRC, umehluko wamanani obonwe kule nyanga awumangazi.
Amanani e-HRC e-US akhuphuke kakhulu, kuyilapho amanani e-HRC yaseShayina eqhubeka nokwehla. Amanani e-HRC yaseShayina akhuphuke ngokushesha ngo-2017 (kusukela ngoJuni 2017), esizwa ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa embonini yensimbi yaseShayina. Ukusabalala phakathi kwamanani ensimbi yaseShayina nawasekhaya kwehle ngekota yesithathu ka-2017 njengoba amanani ensimbi yasekhaya yase-US ehwebelana eceleni. Ukwehla kwamuva kwamanani ensimbi yaseShayina kungase kubeke ingcindezi ephansi emananini ensimbi yasekhaya.
Ukuncipha komkhiqizo wensimbi eShayina kuyaqhubeka. Idolobha laseHandan liyalele izigayo ukuthi zinciphise ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi cishe ngo-25% ukuze kuqhubeke nokusebenzisa izindlela zokulawula ukungcola. Lokho kunciphisa kuzokwelulwa kusukela ngo-Ephreli kuya maphakathi noNovemba. Imboni yamalahle okupheka izophinde inciphise ukukhiqizwa cishe ngo-25% phakathi nalesi sikhathi. Ukuncipha kuzoqala ngo-Ephreli 1.
Ngokusho kwephephandaba elisemthethweni likahulumeni waseMexico, uMnyango Wezomnotho waseMexico ubeke ngokusemthethweni intela yokulwa nokulahla imfucuza emapayipini ensimbi yekhabhoni angeniswe eNingizimu Korea, eSpain, eNdiya nase-Ukraine.
Kubonakala sengathi ukuguquguquka kwezinto zokusetshenziswa kwezolimo kuye kwehla ngemuva kokwenyuka kwentengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa kwezolimo ngaphambi kokuphela kuka-2017.
Intengo yensimbi yehle kakhulu ngoMashi. Intengo yensimbi yehle kakhulu ekuqaleni kwale nyanga. Kodwa-ke, ukwehla okukhulu kwamanani ngenyanga edlule kungenzeka kungakwazi ukusekela amanani aphezulu ensimbi yasekhaya njengamanje.
Amanani amalahle nawo ehle ngoMashi. Amanani amalahle abonakala sengathi akhuphuke futhi kule nyanga, yize amanani amanje ekude kakhulu namanani aphezulu kaJanuwari 2018 angama-$110/t.
Njengoba isenzo sentengo yensimbi sibonisa ukukhuphuka okukhulu kule nyanga, amaqembu okuthenga angase afune ukuqonda isenzo sentengo ukuze anqume ukuthi azibophezele nini ekuthengeni okuphakathi nesikhathi eside. Izinhlangano zokuthenga ezifuna ukucaciseleka okwengeziwe ngokuthi zithenge nini nokuthi zingakanani imikhiqizo yensimbi okufanele ziyithenge zingase zifune ukuzama umbono wethu wokuthenga izinsimbi wanyanga zonke mahhala namuhla.
Ikusasa lezinyanga ezintathu le-US Midwest HRC lehle ngo-3.65% kule nyanga laya ku-$817/t. Amanani ensimbi yaseShayina ehle ngo-10.50%, kanti amanani e-slab yaseShayina ehle ngo-0.5% kuphela laya ku-US$659/t. Amanani e-scrap ase-US aqoshiwe avalelwe ku-$361/st kule nyanga, enyuke ngo-3.14% kusukela enyangeni edlule.
I-aluminium MMI (inkomba yezinsimbi yanyanga zonke) yehle ngamaphuzu ama-3 ngo-Ephreli. Amanani e-aluminium abuthakathaka ku-LME aholele ekuncipheni kwentengo. Inkomba ye-aluminium MMI yamanje ingamaphuzu angama-94, ephansi ngo-3% kunangoMashi.
Umfutho wentengo ye-aluminium ye-LME wehle futhi kule nyanga. Amanani e-aluminium e-LME asesekuncipheni kwezinyanga ezimbili.
Nakuba abanye bangase bafune ukumemezela imakethe ye-aluminium e-bearish, amanani ayesengaphezu kuka-$1,975 lapho i-MetalMiner yeluleka izinhlangano ezithengayo ukuthi zithenge kusengaphambili. Intengo ingase yehle ifike kuleli zinga. Kodwa-ke, uma intengo yehla ngaphansi komugqa oluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka, amanani e-aluminium angaphendukela endaweni e-bearish.
Amanani e-aluminiyamu e-spot ku-Shanghai Futures Exchange nawo ehlile kule nyanga. Ukwehla kubonakala sengathi bekungekuhle kakhulu kunentengo ye-LME. Kodwa-ke, intengo ye-aluminiyamu e-spot ku-Shanghai Futures Exchange yaqala ukwehla kusukela ngo-Okthoba 2017.
Izinqolobane ze-aluminium ku-Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) zehle ngoMashi okokuqala ngqa ezinyangeni ezingaphezu kweziyisishiyagalolunye. Ukwehla kwezinqolobane zezimpahla ngezinye izikhathi kuye kwabonisa ukwehla kwezinqolobane ze-aluminium eShayina, umkhiqizi omkhulu kunabo bonke emhlabeni kanye nomthengi we-aluminium. Izinqolobane ze-Shanghai Futures Exchange zehle ngamathani ayi-154 ngoMashi, ngokusho kwedatha yokushintshanisa eyakhishwa ekuqaleni kuka-Ephreli. Kodwa-ke, izinqolobane ze-aluminium ku-Shanghai Futures Exchange zahlala zingamathani angama-970,233.
Okwamanje, amaphrimiyamu e-aluminium e-US Midwest ehle okokuqala kusukela ngoNovemba 2017. Ukwehla kuka-$0.01 ngephawundi ekuqaleni kuka-Ephreli kwenzeke ngemuva kokwenyuka okukhulu kwamaphrimiyamu. Nakuba amaphrimiyamu ephansi kule nyanga, isivinini sokukhuphuka cishe sizoqhubeka isikhathi esithile.
Ukubuyiselwa emuva kwentengo ye-aluminium ye-LME kungaletha ithuba elihle lokuthenga kumaqembu athengayo njengoba amanani cishe azokhuphuka futhi.
Kodwa-ke, njengoba amanani ephansi njengamanje, amaqembu abathengi angase afune ukulinda kuze kube yilapho imakethe ikhombisa isiqondiso esicacile. Ngakho-ke, ukulungisa isu lokuthenga "elifanele" kubalulekile ekunciphiseni ubungozi.
Njengoba kuqhubeka ukungaqiniseki mayelana nemikhiqizo ye-aluminium ne-aluminium, izinhlangano ezithengayo manje zingase zifise ukuzama umbono wethu wokuthenga izinsimbi wanyanga zonke mahhala.
Amanani e-aluminiyamu ku-LME ehle ngo-5.8% kule nyanga kuze kube sekupheleni kukaMashi ku-$2,014/t. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, ishidi lezentengiselwano laseNingizimu Korea elingu-1050 lenyuke ngo-1.97%. Intengo ye-aluminiyamu eluhlaza yaseShayina yehle ngo-1.61%, kwathi induku ye-aluminiyamu yaseShayina yehla ngo-3.12%.
Amanani entengo ye-billet yaseShayina abephansi kule nyanga ku-$2,259/t. Amanani entengo ye-primary spot yaseNdiya ehle ngo-6.51% yaya ku-$2.01/kg.
Ngenyanga edlule, esihlokweni sendatshana yethu yokuvuselela yanyanga zonke nge-MMI eyigugu emhlabeni, sikhulume ngeqiniso lokuthi amanani e-platinum ne-palladium ehlile. Sabe sesibuza, “Ingabe kuzoqhubeka?”
Njengoba amanani e-platinum kanye ne-palladium ase-US ehla, i-Global Precious Metals Monthly Index (MMI) yethu, elandela ubhasikidi womhlaba wonke wezinsimbi eziyigugu, yehla futhi ngo-Ephreli - yehla ngo-1.1% futhi yangena ekwehleni kwezinyanga ezimbili.
(Ngenyanga edlule, sabika ekuqaleni ukuthi inkomba yayikhuphuke ngezinyanga ezimbili ngaphambi kokuba iwe ngoMashi. Ukulungiswa: Empeleni yayikhuphuke ngezinyanga ezine ngaleso sikhathi.)
Kokubili izimakethe zamasheya kanye nezimpahla ezithengiswayo zibhekane nokuphazamiseka muva nje, lapho uMongameli uTrump ebeka intela yensimbi, i-aluminium kanye nezinye izinto zaseShayina ezingu-1,300 ezithengwa kwamanye amazwe maphakathi nenyanga edlule, kanti iShayina iziphindiselela ngentela kwezinye izinto. Ukuthunyelwa kwezimpahla ezingezona ezensimbi e-US.
Akukhona ukweqisa ukusho ukuthi ukusabela kochungechunge kwenzeka emakethe yezinsimbi eziyigugu.