Bishii hore, MetalMiner waxay soo saartay bayaankan soo socda: "MetalMiner waxay aaminsan tahay in saameynta ay ku leedahay ururka iibsiga birta ee Grain Oriented Electric aysan si buuxda u muujin doonin saameynta ballaaran ee canshuuraha ee qaababka birta ee caadiga ah loo isticmaalo, birta iyo darajooyinka."
Had iyo jeer si sax ah uma helno, laakiin dhab ahaantii qiimaha GOES M3 ayaa hoos u dhacay bishii la soo dhaafay marka la barbar dhigo kororka guud ee qiimaha dhammaan ama ku dhawaad ​​​​dhammaan qaybaha kale ee alaabada kaarboonka ee la duubay.
Dhanka kale, inkastoo MetalMiner ay ka warqabto hal urur oo wax iibsi ah oo gudbiyay codsi ka-saaritaan iyada oo loo marayo habka ka-saarista ee dhawaan la shaaciyay, ma jirto shirkad codsatay (ugu yaraan Abriil 11). Tani way isbeddeli doontaa maadaama soo dejinta GOES ay sii socoto.
Baaritaan degdeg ah ayaa muujinaya in baaritaanka 301 uu sidoo kale ku jiro biraha korontada ee ku saleysan hadhuudhka oo leh lambarrada HTS: 72261110, 72261190, 72261910 iyo 72261990 - asal ahaan "biraha korontada ee silikoon ee la isku daray ee ballaca kala duwan (barafka ku salaysan)".
Si kastaba ha ahaatee, baaritaanka Qaybta 301 kuma jiraan qaybaha transformer-ka (8504.90.9546) ama xudunta nabarka (8504.90.9542), kuwaas oo labaduba geli kara Mareykanka iyadoo lagu saleynayo daaweynta suuqa ee hadda jirta.
MetalMiner waxay cusbooneysiin doontaa akhristayaasha marka/haddii Madaxweyne Trump uu ku dhawaaqo baaritaanka Qaybta 301.
Qiimaha gariiradda birta korontada ku salaysan ee Mareykanka (GOES) ayaa hoos ugu dhacay $2,595/t bishan laga bilaabo $2,637/t. MMI ayaa hoos u dhacday 3 dhibcood ilaa 188.
GOES MMI® waxay ururisaa oo cabirtaa 1 dhibic oo qiimo bir koronto oo caalami ah oo ku salaysan hadhuudhka si ay u bixiso aragti gaar ah oo ku saabsan isbeddellada qiimaha 30-ka maalmood ah. Wixii macluumaad dheeraad ah ee ku saabsan GOES MMI®, sida loo xisaabiyo, ama sida shirkaddaadu u isticmaasho tusmada, naga soo dir khadka info (at) agmetalminer (dot) com.
MMI-ga aan miridhku lahayn (Miisaanka Birta ee Bishii) ayaa kor u kacay 1 dhibcood bishii Abriil. Akhrinta hadda waa 76 dhibcood.
Kororka qiimaha dheeraadka ah ee birta aan daxalka lahayn ayaa kor u qaaday tusmada inkastoo hoos u dhac yar uu ku yimid qiimaha nikkelka LME bishan. Biraha kale ee la xiriira ayaa kordhay dambiilaha birta aan daxalka lahayn.
Qiimaha nikkelka LME ayaa hoos u dhacay iyadoo la barbar dhigay biraha kale ee saldhigga ah bishii Maarso. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, hoos u dhaca uma muuqdo mid la mid ah aluminiumka ama naxaasta.
Qiimaha nikkelka ee LME ayaa weli sarreeya, taasoo aad uga fog hoos u dhaca 2017 ee la arkay Maajo ama Juun, markii MetalMiner ay kula talisay kooxaha wax iibsanaya inay iibsadaan mug hore. Qiimaha wuxuu ahaa qiyaastii $8,800/t waqtigaas, marka la barbar dhigo heerka qiimaha hadda jira ee $13,200/t.
Ka dib markii ay soo kabatay tamarta dhaqdhaqaaqa birta aan daxalka lahayn, khidmadaha dheeraadka ah ee birta aan daxalka lahayn ee gudaha ayaa kordhay bishan.
Lacag dheeraad ah oo ah 316/316L oo NAS ah oo kor u kacaysa ilaa $0.96/lb. Sidaa darteed, ururada wax iibsanaya waxay rabi karaan inay eegaan lacagaha dheeraadka ah si ay u aqoonsadaan fursadaha lagu dhimayo khatarta qiimaha iyada oo loo marayo iibsiyada hore ama xayndaabka.
Heerka kororka lacagaha dheeraadka ah ee birta aan miridhku lahayn ayaa u muuqda inuu hoos u dhacay bishan. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, laga bilaabo 2017, lacagta dheeraadka ah ayaa korodhay. 316/316L oo ah lacagta dheeraadka ah ee NAS waxay ku dhowdahay $0.96/lb.
Iyadoo birta iyo nikkelku ay weli ku jiraan suuqa dibiga, kooxaha wax iibsanaya waxay rabi karaan inay isha ku hayaan suuqa si ay u helaan fursado ay ku iibsadaan hoos u dhaca.
Si aad u barato sida aad ula qabsan karto istaraatiijiyaddaada wax iibsiga bil kasta baahiyahaaga gaarka ah, isku day aragtidayada bil kasta si bilaash ah maanta.
Qiimaha gariiradda aan daxalka lahayn ee Shiinaha 304 ayaa kor u kacay 1.48%, halka qiimaha gariiradda aan daxalka lahayn ee Shiinaha 316 uu hoos u dhacay 0.67%. Qiimaha gariiradda ferrochrome-ka Shiinaha ayaa hoos u dhacay 5.52% bishan ilaa $1,998/t. Qiimaha nikkel-ka ayaa sidoo kale hoos u dhacay 1.77% ilaa $13,300/t.
MMI-ga birta ceeriin (tusmada biraha bilaha ah) ayaa hoos u dhacay 4 dhibcood bishan ilaa 88. Inkasta oo uu hoos u dhacay MMI-ga birta ceeriin ah, haddana qiimaha birta gudaha ayaa hoos u dhacayay bisha Maarso oo dhan. Qiimaha alaabada birta ee waaweyn ee fidsan ayaa gaaray heerkii ugu sarreeyay toddobo sano.
Qiimaha birta gudaha ayaa kor u kacay, iyadoo qiimaha HRC ee gudaha uu ka kacay $600-$650/st ilaa qiyaastii $850 saddexdii bilood ee la soo dhaafay.
Kororka qiimaha birta ayaa ka dhashay arrimo badan. Marka hore, isbeddelka muddada dheer ee bilaabmay 2016 wuxuu horseeday qiimaha birta oo sarreeya. Marka labaad, dib u dhaca wareegga warshadaha birta (xilliyeedka) ayaa kor u qaadaya qiimaha birta.
Taariikh ahaan, qiimuhu wuxuu caadi ahaan kor u kacay rubuci afraad iyadoo shirkado badan ay dib u gorgortamaan heshiisyadooda sanadlaha ah inta lagu jiro xilliga miisaaniyadda sanadka soo socda. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, kororka sanadkan ee qiimaha birta ma uusan dhicin ilaa markii dambe. Qiimayaashu waxay u muuqdaan inay sugayaan natiijada Qaybta 232 (iyo canshuuraha u dhigma), kaas oo taageeraya qiimaha birta gudaha.
Si kastaba ha ahaatee, qiimaha birta gudaha ayaa u muuqda inuu ku dhow yahay dhammaadka kororka qiimaha ugu dambeeyay. Iyada oo lagu saleynayo wareegyada qiimaha birta ee taariikhiga ah, qiimaha birta Shiinaha oo hooseeya iyo qiimaha alaabta ceeriin oo hooseeya, qiimaha birta gudaha ayaa u badan tahay inuu hoos u dhaco bilaha soo socda.
Qiimaha birta Shiinaha iyo qiimaha birta Mareykanka badanaa waa la isku beddelaa. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, isbeddellada muddada gaaban mararka qaarkood way kala duwan yihiin.
Isbeddellada muddada gaaban waxaa sababi kara hubanti la'aan maxalli ah ama carqalado degdeg ah oo ku yimaada sahayda maxalliga ah. Laakiin isbeddelladan muddada gaaban waxay u muuqdaan inay saxaan oo ay ku soo noqdaan qaababkoodii taariikhiga ahaa.
Marka la barbardhigo qiimaha HRC ee Shiinaha iyo Mareykanka, kala duwanaanshaha qiimaha ee la arkay bishan ma aha wax la yaab leh.
Qiimaha HRC ee Mareykanka ayaa cirka isku shareeray, halka qiimaha HRC ee Shiinaha uu sii waday inuu hoos u dhaco. Qiimaha HRC ee Shiinaha ayaa si dhakhso ah kor ugu kacay 2017 (laga bilaabo Juun 2017), taasoo ay gacan ka geysatay dhimista wax soo saarka ee warshadaha birta Shiinaha. Faafidda u dhaxaysa qiimaha birta Shiinaha iyo kan gudaha ayaa hoos u dhacday rubuci saddexaad ee 2017 iyadoo qiimaha birta gudaha ee Mareykanka uu dhinac u ganacsanayay. Hoos u dhaca dhawaan ku yimid qiimaha birta Shiinaha ayaa laga yaabaa inuu hoos u dhigo cadaadiska qiimaha birta gudaha.
Hoos u dhaca wax soo saarka birta ee Shiinaha ayaa sii socda. Magaalada Handan waxay amar ku bixisay in warshaduhu ay dhimaan wax soo saarka birta qiyaastii 25% si ay u sii wadaan hirgelinta tallaabooyinka xakamaynta wasakhowga. Jaristaas waxaa la kordhin doonaa laga bilaabo Abriil ilaa bartamaha Noofambar. Warshadaha dhuxusha ee coking ayaa sidoo kale dhimi doona wax soo saarka qiyaastii 25% inta lagu jiro muddadan. Jarista waxay bilaabanaysaa Abriil 1.
Sida ku cad wargeyska rasmiga ah ee dowladda Mexico, Wasaaradda Dhaqaalaha ee Mexico ayaa si rasmi ah canshuuro ka dhan ah qashinka ugu soo rogtay tuubooyinka birta kaarboonka ee laga soo dejiyo Kuuriyada Koonfureed, Isbaanishka, Hindiya iyo Yukrayn.
Dhaqdhaqaaqa walxaha ceeriin ayaa u muuqda inuu hoos u dhacay ka dib markii qiimaha alaabta ceeriin uu kor u kacay ka hor dhammaadka 2017.
Qiimaha macdanta birta ayaa si weyn hoos ugu dhacay bishii Maarso. Qiimaha macdanta birta ayaa kor u kacay horraantii bishan. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, hoos u dhaca qiimaha ee bishii hore ayaa laga yaabaa inaanu taageeri karin qiimaha birta ee gudaha ee hadda jira.
Qiimaha dhuxusha ayaa sidoo kale hoos u dhacay bishii Maarso. Qiimaha dhuxusha ayaa u muuqda inuu mar kale kor u kacay bishan, inkastoo qiimaha hadda uu ka fog yahay kii ugu sarreeyay Janaayo 2018 ee ahaa $110/t.
Iyadoo qiimaha birta uu muujinayo kor u kac xooggan bishaan, kooxaha wax iibsanaya waxay rabi karaan inay fahmaan tallaabada qiimaha si ay u go'aamiyaan goorta la ballan qaadayo wax iibsiga muddada-dhexe ilaa muddada-dheer. Ururada wax iibsiga ee doonaya caddayn dheeraad ah oo ku saabsan goorta la iibsanayo iyo inta alaab ee birta ah ee la iibsanayo waxay rabi karaan inay maanta si bilaash ah u tijaabiyaan aragtidayada iibsiga biraha ee bilaha ah.
Mustaqbalka 3-bilood ee HRC ee Bartamaha Mareykanka ayaa hoos u dhacay 3.65% bishan ilaa $817/t. Qiimaha billet-ka birta Shiinaha ayaa hoos u dhacay 10.50%, halka qiimaha billet-ka Shiinaha uu hoos u dhacay 0.5% ilaa US$659/t. Qiimaha qashinka la jajabiyey ee Mareykanka ayaa xirmay $361/t bishaan, taasoo kor u kacday 3.14% marka loo eego bishii hore.
Aluminium MMI (tusmada biraha bilaha ah) ayaa hoos u dhacday 3 dhibcood bishii Abriil. Qiimaha aluminiumka oo daciif ah oo ku yaal LME ayaa horseeday dib u dhac qiimaha. Tusmada Aluminium MMI ee hadda jirta waa 94 dhibcood, 3% ka hooseeya bishii Maarso.
Qiimaha aluminiumka LME ayaa mar kale hoos u dhacay bishan. Qiimaha aluminiumka LME ayaa wali ku jira hoos u dhac laba bilood ah.
In kasta oo qaar ay rabaan inay ku dhawaaqaan suuq aluminium ah oo aan qiimo lahayn, qiimuhu wali wuu ka sarreeyay $1,975 markii MetalMiner ay kula talisay ururada wax iibsanaya inay horay u iibsadaan. Qiimuhu wuxuu dib ugu dhici karaa heerkan. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, haddii qiimuhu ka hooseeyo xariiqda buluugga ah ee dhibcaha leh, qiimaha aluminiumku wuxuu u rogi karaa dhul bearish ah.
Qiimaha aluminiumka ee ku jira Suuqa Mustaqbalka ee Shanghai ayaa sidoo kale hoos u dhacay bishan. Hoos u dhaca ayaa u muuqda mid aan aad uga yarayn qiimaha LME. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, qiimaha aluminiumka ee ku jira Suuqa Mustaqbalka ee Shanghai ayaa bilaabay inuu hoos u dhaco laga bilaabo Oktoobar 2017.
Kaydka aluminiumka ee ku jira Suuqa Mustaqbalka ee Shanghai (SHFE) ayaa hoos u dhacay bishii Maarso markii ugu horreysay muddo ka badan sagaal bilood. Hoos u dhaca kaydka ayaa mararka qaar calaamad u ah hoos u dhac ku yimid kaydka aluminiumka ee Shiinaha, oo ah soo saaraha ugu weyn adduunka iyo macaamiisha aluminiumka. Kaydka Shanghai Futures Exchange ayaa hoos u dhacay 154 tan bishii Maarso, sida laga soo xigtay xogta is-weydaarsiga ee la sii daayay horraantii Abriil. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, kaydka aluminiumka ee ku jira Suuqa Mustaqbalka ee Shanghai ayaa weli ahaa 970,233 tan.
Dhanka kale, qiimaha aluminiumka ee Bartamaha Dhexe ee Mareykanka ayaa hoos u dhacay markii ugu horreysay tan iyo Noofambar 2017. Hoos u dhaca $0.01 rodolkiiba horraantii Abriil wuxuu yimid ka dib markii uu si weyn u kordhay qiimaha premium-ka. Inkasta oo qiimaha premium-ku uu hooseeyo bishan, haddana kor u kaca ayaa u badan tahay inuu sii socdo muddo ah.
Dib-u-dhac ku yimaada qiimaha aluminiumka LME wuxuu keeni karaa fursad iibsi oo wanaagsan oo loogu talagalay kooxaha wax iibsanaya maadaama qiimuhu uu mar kale kor u kici karo.
Si kastaba ha ahaatee, iyadoo qiimuhu hadda hooseeyo, kooxaha wax iibsanaya waxay rabi karaan inay sugaan ilaa suuqu muujiyo jiho cad. Sidaa darteed, hagaajinta istaraatiijiyadda wax iibsiga ee "saxda ah" ayaa muhiim u ah yareynta khatarta.
Iyadoo la tixgelinayo hubanti la'aanta joogtada ah ee ku saabsan alaabada aluminiumka iyo aluminiumka, shirkadaha wax iibsiga ayaa hadda laga yaabaa inay rabaan inay si bilaash ah u tijaabiyaan aragtidayada iibsiga biraha ee bilaha ah.
Qiimaha aluminiumka ee LME ayaa hoos u dhacay 5.8% bishan ilaa dhammaadka Maarso isagoo gaaray $2,014/t. Dhanka kale, warqadda ganacsiga ee Kuuriyada Koonfureed ee 1050 ayaa kor u kacday 1.97%. Qiimaha booska ceeriin ee aluminiumka Shiinaha ayaa hoos u dhacay 1.61%, halka usha aluminiumka Shiinaha ay hoos u dhacday 3.12%.
Qiimaha baaldiga Shiinaha ayaa bishii hore ahaa mid aan isbeddelin oo ah $2,259/t. Qiimaha booska koowaad ee Hindiya ayaa hoos u dhacay 6.51% ilaa $2.01/kg.
Bishii hore, cinwaanka maqaalkeenna cusboonaysiinta billaha ah ee ku saabsan MMI-ga qaaliga ah ee adduunka, waxaan ku xusnay xaqiiqda ah in qiimaha platinum iyo palladium uu hoos u dhacay. Kadib waxaan weydiinay, "Ma sii socon doontaa?"
Markii qiimaha platinum iyo palladium-ka Mareykanka uu hoos u dhacay, Tusmada Billaha ah ee Birta Qiimaha Badan ee Adduunka (MMI), oo la socota dambiisha birta qaaliga ah ee adduunka, ayaa mar kale hoos u dhacday bishii Abriil - hoos u dhac 1.1% ah waxayna gashay hoos u dhac laba bilood ah.
(Bishii hore, waxaan markii hore soo sheegnay in tusmada ay ku jirtay kor u kac laba bilood ah ka hor inta aysan hoos u dhicin Maarso. Sax: Dhab ahaantii waxay ku jirtay kor u kac afar bilood ah waqtigaas.)
Suuqa saamiyada iyo suuqyada badeecadaha labaduba waxay dhawaan la kulmeen jahwareer, iyadoo Madaxweyne Trump uu canshuuro saaray birta, aluminiumka iyo malaha 1,300 oo dheeraad ah oo Shiineys ah oo soo dejiyay bartamihii bishii hore, iyo Shiinuhu oo ka aargoosanaya canshuuraha qaar ka mid ah alaabada. Dhoofinta badeecadaha aan biraha ahayn ee Mareykanka.
Ma aha wax la buunbuuniyo in la yiraahdo falgal silsilad ah ayaa ka socda suuqa biraha qaaliga ah.