Kwinyanga ephelileyo, iMetalMiner ikhuphe le ngxelo ilandelayo: “I-MetalMiner ikholelwa ukuba impembelelo kwintlangano yokuthenga intsimbi yeGrain Oriented Electric ayizukubonakalisa ngokupheleleyo impembelelo ebanzi yerhafu kwiifom zentsimbi ezisetyenziswa rhoqo, ii-alloys kunye nee-grades.”
Asisoloko siyiqonda kakuhle, kodwa eneneni ixabiso le-GOES M3 liye lehla kwinyanga ephelileyo xa kuthelekiswa nokunyuka kwexabiso lilonke kuzo zonke okanye phantse zonke ezinye iindidi zeemveliso ezijikelezileyo zekhabhoni.
Okwangoku, nangona iMetalMiner isazi ngentlangano enye yokuthenga efake isicelo sokukhutshwa ngenkqubo yokukhutshwa esandul’ ukubhengezwa, akukho nkampani ifake isicelo (ubuncinane ukusukela nge-11 ka-Epreli). Oku kuya kutshintsha njengoko ukungeniswa kwe-GOES kuqhubeka nokuza.
Uphando olukhawulezileyo lubonisa ukuba uphando lwe-301 lukwabandakanya neentsimbi zombane ezijolise kwiingqolowa ezineekhowudi ze-HTS: 72261110, 72261190, 72261910 kunye no-72261990 – ngokusisiseko “iintsimbi zombane ze-silicon ezixutyiweyo ezinobubanzi obahlukeneyo (ezijolise kwiingqolowa)”.
Nangona kunjalo, uphando lweCandelo 301 alubandakanyi izinto ze-transformer (8504.90.9546) okanye ii-wound cores (8504.90.9542), zombini ezinokungena eMelika ngokusekelwe kwindlela esetyenziswa ngayo imarike ngoku.
I-MetalMiner iza kwazisa abafundi xa/xa uMongameli uTrump esenza isibhengezo malunga nophando lweCandelo 301.
Amaxabiso e-coil e-US e-electrical steel (GOES) coil awe kwi-$2,595/t kule nyanga ukusuka kwi-$2,637/t. I-MMI yehle ngamanqaku ama-3 yaya kwi-188.
I-GOES MMI® iqokelela kwaye ilinganise ixabiso lentsimbi yombane eli-1 elijolise kwingqolowa yehlabathi ukuze inike umbono owahlukileyo kwiindlela zamaxabiso zeentsuku ezingama-30. Ukuze ufumane ulwazi oluthe kratya nge-GOES MMI®, indlela ebalwa ngayo, okanye indlela inkampani yakho esebenzisa ngayo isalathisi, sithumelele umgca ku-info (at) agmetalminer (dot) com.
I-MMI engagqwaliyo (iMonthly Metals Index) inyuke ngenqaku eli-1 ngo-Epreli. Ukufundwa kwangoku ngamanqaku angama-76.
Ukunyuka kwentlawulo eyongezelelweyo yentsimbi engagqwaliyo kuyonyusile isalathisi nangona amaxabiso e-nickel e-LME ehle kancinci kule nyanga. Ezinye izinyithi ezinxulumene noko zonyukile kwiingobozi zentsimbi engagqwaliyo.
Amaxabiso e-nickel e-LME ehle kunye nezinye iintsimbi ezisisiseko ngoMatshi. Nangona kunjalo, ukwehla akubonakali kukhulu njenge-aluminium okanye i-copper.
Amaxabiso e-nickel kwi-LME asaphezulu, nto leyo eyahlukileyo kakhulu kunexabiso eliphantsi lika-2017 elabonwa ngoMeyi okanye ngoJuni, xa iMetalMiner yacebisa amaqela athengayo ukuba athenge ivolumu ethile. Ixabiso lalimalunga ne-$8,800/t ngelo xesha, xa kuthelekiswa nenqanaba langoku lexabiso le-$13,200/t.
Emva kokubuyiselwa kwamandla e-kinetic ensimbi engagqwaliyo, iintlawulo ezongezelelweyo zentsimbi engagqwaliyo zasekhaya zinyukile kule nyanga.
Intlawulo eyongezelelweyo ye-NAS ye-316/316L coil ukuya kuthi ga kwi-$0.96/lb. Ke ngoko, imibutho ethengayo isenokufuna ukujonga iintlawulo ezongezelelweyo ukuze ichonge amathuba okunciphisa umngcipheko wamaxabiso ngokuthenga kwangaphambili okanye ukuvala i-hedging.
Isantya sokunyuka kweentlawulo zentsimbi engagqwaliyo sibonakala sinciphile kule nyanga. Nangona kunjalo, ukusukela ngo-2017, intlawulo eyongezelelweyo inyukile. Iintlawulo ze-NAS ze-coil ze-316/316L zisondela kwi-$0.96/lb.
Njengoko intsimbi kunye ne-nickel zisesemarikeni yenkunzi, amaqela athengayo asenokufuna ukujonga amathuba okuthenga idiphu kwimarike.
Ukuze ufunde indlela yokulungelelanisa icebo lakho lokuthenga inyanga nenyanga ukuze lihambelane neemfuno zakho ezithile, zama i-Monthly Outview yethu simahla namhlanje.
Amaxabiso e-stainless coil yaseTshayina angama-304 anyuke nge-1.48%, ngelixa amaxabiso e-stainless coil yaseTshayina angama-316 ehle nge-0.67%. Amaxabiso e-ferrochrome yaseTshayina ehle nge-5.52% kule nyanga ukuya kwi-$1,998/t. Amaxabiso e-nickel nawo ehle nge-1.77% ukuya kwi-$13,300/t.
I-MMI yentsimbi eluhlaza (isalathisi seentsimbi zenyanga) yehle ngamanqaku ama-4 kule nyanga yaya kuma-88. Nangona i-MMI yentsimbi eluhlaza ihlile, amaxabiso entsimbi yasekhaya ebesehla kuyo yonke iMatshi. Amaxabiso eemveliso ezinkulu zentsimbi ethe tyaba afikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwiminyaka esixhenxe.
Amaxabiso entsimbi yasekhaya anyukile, amaxabiso e-HRC yasekhaya enyuka ukusuka kwi-$600-$650/st ukuya kwi-$850 kwiinyanga ezintathu ezidlulileyo.
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso entsimbi kubangelwa zizinto ezininzi. Okokuqala, umkhwa wexesha elide owaqala ngo-2016 ukhokelele ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso entsimbi. Okwesibini, ukulibaziseka kokujikeleza kweshishini lentsimbi (ukuguquguquka kwexesha) kwandisa ukuthambekela kwexabiso lentsimbi.
Ngokwembali, amaxabiso aye anyuka kwikota yesine njengoko iinkampani ezininzi ziphinda zixoxe ngezivumelwano zazo zonyaka ngexesha lohlahlo-lwabiwo mali lonyaka ozayo. Nangona kunjalo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso entsimbi kulo nyaka akuzange kwenzeke de kwaba kamva. Amaxabiso abonakala elinde isiphumo seCandelo 232 (kunye neerhafu ezifanayo), elixhasa amaxabiso entsimbi yasekhaya.
Nangona kunjalo, amaxabiso entsimbi yasekhaya abonakala esondele ekupheleni kokunyuka kwamaxabiso kwamva nje. Ngokusekelwe kwimijikelo yexabiso lentsimbi yembali, amaxabiso aphantsi entsimbi yaseTshayina kunye namaxabiso aphantsi ezinto ezikrwada, amaxabiso entsimbi yasekhaya anokwehla kwiinyanga ezizayo.
Amaxabiso entsimbi yaseTshayina kunye namaxabiso entsimbi yase-US adla ngokuthengiswa kunye. Nangona kunjalo, iindlela zexesha elifutshane ngamanye amaxesha ziyahluka kancinci.
Iimeko zexesha elifutshane zinokubangelwa kukungaqiniseki kwendawo okanye ukuphazamiseka ngequbuliso kobonelelo lwendawo. Kodwa ezi meko zexesha elifutshane zihlala zilungisa kwaye zibuyele kwiindlela zazo zembali.
Xa kuthelekiswa amaxabiso aseTshayina nawaseMelika e-HRC, umahluko wamaxabiso obonwe kule nyanga awumangalisi.
Amaxabiso e-HRC e-US anyuke kakhulu, ngelixa amaxabiso e-HRC aseTshayina eqhubekile nokuhla. Amaxabiso e-HRC aseTshayina anyuke ngokukhawuleza ngo-2017 (ukususela ngoJuni 2017), encediswa kukuncipha kwemveliso kwishishini lesinyithi laseTshayina. Ukusasazeka phakathi kwamaxabiso esinyithi aseTshayina nawasekhaya kwehla kwikota yesithathu ka-2017 njengoko amaxabiso esinyithi aseTshayina asekhaya erhweba ecaleni. Ukuhla kwakutshanje kwamaxabiso esinyithi aseTshayina kunokubeka uxinzelelo oluphantsi kumaxabiso esinyithi aseTshayina.
Ukuncipha kwemveliso yentsimbi eTshayina kuyaqhubeka. Isixeko saseHandan siyalele iifektri ukuba zinciphise imveliso yentsimbi malunga ne-25% ukuze ziqhubeke nokusebenzisa amanyathelo okulawula ungcoliseko. Ezo zinciphiso ziya kwandiswa ukusuka ku-Epreli ukuya phakathi kuNovemba. Ishishini lamalahle eliphekiweyo liza kunciphisa imveliso malunga ne-25% ngeli xesha. Ukuncipha kuqala ngomhla woku-1 ku-Epreli.
Ngokwengxelo yephephandaba elisemthethweni likarhulumente waseMexico, iSebe lezoQoqosho laseMexico limisele ngokusesikweni irhafu yokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma kwiipayipi zentsimbi yekhabhoni ezithunyelwa eMzantsi Korea, eSpain, eIndiya naseUkraine.
Kubonakala ngathi ukuguquguquka kwezinto eziluhlaza kuye kwehla emva kokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto eziluhlaza ngaphambi kokuphela kuka-2017.
Amaxabiso esinyithi ehle kakhulu ngoMatshi. Amaxabiso esinyithi enyuke kakhulu ekuqaleni kwale nyanga. Nangona kunjalo, ukwehla okukhulu kwamaxabiso kwinyanga ephelileyo kusenokungakwazi ukuxhasa amaxabiso aphezulu esinyithi asekhaya.
Amaxabiso amalahle nawo ehlile ngoMatshi. Amaxabiso amalahle abonakala enyuke kwakhona kule nyanga, nangona amaxabiso angoku ekude kakhulu kunexabiso eliphezulu likaJanuwari 2018 le-$110/t.
Njengoko isenzo sexabiso lentsimbi sibonisa ukunyuka okukhulu kule nyanga, amaqela abathengi anokufuna ukuqonda isenzo sexabiso ukuze agqibe ukuba azibophelele nini ekuthengeni ixesha eliphakathi ukuya kwelide. Imibutho yokuthenga efuna ukucaciswa ngakumbi ngexesha lokuthenga kunye nokuba zingakanani iimveliso zentsimbi ekufuneka izithenge inokufuna ukuzama umbono wethu wokuthenga izinyithi zenyanga simahla namhlanje.
Ikamva le-US Midwest HRC leenyanga ezi-3 lehle nge-3.65% kule nyanga laya kwi-$817/t. Amaxabiso e-billet yentsimbi yaseTshayina ehle nge-10.50%, ngelixa amaxabiso e-slab yaseTshayina ehle nge-0.5% kuphela ukuya kwi-US$659/t. Amaxabiso e-slap aqhekekileyo ase-US avale kwi-$361/st kule nyanga, enyuke nge-3.14% ukusuka kwinyanga ephelileyo.
I-aluminium MMI (isalathisi seentsimbi zenyanga) yehle ngamanqaku ama-3 ngo-Epreli. Amaxabiso e-aluminium abuthathaka kwi-LME akhokelele ekutsalweni kwexabiso. Isalathisi se-aluminium MMI sangoku singamanqaku angama-94, aphantsi nge-3% kunangoMatshi.
Ixabiso le-aluminium ye-LME liye lehla kwakhona kule nyanga. Amaxabiso e-aluminium ye-LME asephantsi kakhulu kwiinyanga ezimbini.
Nangona abanye besenokufuna ukubhengeza imakethi ye-aluminium e-bearish, amaxabiso ayesengaphezulu kwe-$1,975 xa iMetalMiner yacebisa imibutho ethengayo ukuba ithenge kwangaphambili. Ixabiso lisenokubuyela kweli nqanaba. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba ixabiso liyaphuka ngaphantsi komgca oluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka, amaxabiso e-aluminium anokujika aye kwindawo e-bearish.
Amaxabiso e-aluminiyam akwi-Shanghai Futures Exchange nawo ehlile kule nyanga. Kubonakala ngathi ukwehla bekungaphantsi kakhulu kunamaxabiso e-LME. Nangona kunjalo, ixabiso le-aluminiyam elikwi-Shanghai Futures Exchange liqale ukwehla ukususela ngo-Okthobha ka-2017.
Iimpahla ze-aluminium kwiShanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) zehle ngoMatshi okokuqala emva kweenyanga ezingaphezu kwesithoba. Ukutsalwa kwempahla ngamanye amaxesha kuye kwabonisa ukwehla kweempahla ze-aluminium eTshayina, umvelisi omkhulu kunye nomthengi we-aluminium kwihlabathi. Iimpahla ze-Shanghai Futures Exchange zehle ngeetoni ezili-154 ngoMatshi, ngokutsho kwedatha yotshintshiselwano ekhutshwe ekuqaleni kuka-Epreli. Nangona kunjalo, iimpahla ze-aluminium kwiShanghai Futures Exchange zahlala kwiitoni ezingama-970,233.
Okwangoku, iiprimiyamu ze-aluminium kwiMidwest yase-US zehle okokuqala ukusukela ngoNovemba ka-2017. Ukuhla kwe-$0.01 ngeponti ekuqaleni kuka-Epreli kwenzeke emva kokunyuka okukhulu kweeprimiyamu. Nangona iiprimiyamu ziphantsi kule nyanga, isantya sokunyuka sinokuqhubeka okwethutyana.
Ukubuyiselwa kwexabiso le-aluminium ye-LME kunokubonelela ngethuba elihle lokuthenga kumaqela athengayo njengoko amaxabiso esenokunyuka kwakhona.
Nangona kunjalo, njengoko amaxabiso ehlile okwangoku, amaqela abathengi asenokufuna ukulinda ide imakethi ibonise indlela ecacileyo. Ke ngoko, ukulungisa icebo lokuthenga "elichanekileyo" kubalulekile ekunciphiseni umngcipheko.
Ngenxa yokungaqiniseki okuqhubekayo malunga neemveliso ze-aluminium kunye ne-aluminium, imibutho ethengayo ngoku ingathanda ukuzama umbono wethu wokuthenga izinyithi zenyanga simahla.
Amaxabiso e-aluminiyam kwi-LME ehle nge-5.8% kule nyanga ukuphela kukaMatshi kwi-$2,014/t. Okwangoku, ishiti yentengiso yaseMzantsi Korea ye-1050 inyuke nge-1.97%. Ixabiso le-aluminiyam eluhlaza yaseTshayina lehle nge-1.61%, ngelixa intonga ye-aluminiyam yaseTshayina yehle nge-3.12%.
Amaxabiso eebhilethi zaseTshayina ebephantsi kule nyanga kwi-$2,259/t. Amaxabiso eebhilethi zaseIndiya ehle nge-6.51% ukuya kwi-$2.01/kg.
Kwinyanga ephelileyo, kwisihloko senqaku lethu lohlaziyo lwenyanga malunga ne-MMI exabisekileyo yehlabathi, sikhankanye into yokuba amaxabiso eplatinum kunye ne-palladium ehlile. Emva koko sabuza, “Ngaba iza kuqhubeka?”
Njengoko amaxabiso eplatinum kunye nepalladium e-US ehla, iGlobal Precious Metals Monthly Index (MMI) yethu, elandela ibhaskithi yehlabathi yeentsimbi ezixabisekileyo, yehla kwakhona ngo-Epreli - yehla nge-1.1% yaza yangena ekwehleni kweenyanga ezimbini.
(Kwinyanga ephelileyo, ekuqaleni sibike ukuba isalathisi besikwinqanaba lokunyuka kwexabiso leenyanga ezimbini ngaphambi kokuba liwe ngoMatshi. Ulungiso: Ngenene belukwinqanaba lokunyuka kwexabiso leenyanga ezine ngelo xesha.)
Zombini iimarike zezabelo kunye neemarike zeempahla zibone ukuphazamiseka kutshanje, apho uMongameli uTrump ebeke irhafu kwisinyithi, i-aluminium kunye nezinye izinto zaseTshayina eziyi-1,300 ezithengwa kwamanye amazwe phakathi kwinyanga ephelileyo, kwaye iTshayina iziphindezela ngerhafu kwezinye izinto. Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwempahla engeyonsimbi eMelika.
Asikuko ukubaxa izinto ukuthi kukho ukusabela kwetsheyini kwimarike yeentsimbi ezixabisekileyo.